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Glad I sold day before at 0.22, had feeling this is not worth the risk,
ErFreh
Not sure you are looking positively
If you want to invest like that then Saga when the consolidated and AIG werecstonecon a cpl of weeks ago to leave money in there and watch them recover over next 18 to 24 months when travel opens up
I've to much tied up so kicking myself
If you want to trade theres an easy 10 or 20 percent over next 6 to 8 weeks here .
But beat the placing and then back in for Turkey
All in my opinion of course
ErFreh,
Congrat's.
I've been pessimistic about this share for a while.
But I think it may be a bit too low from Friday's reaction.
I've got as much as I want invested in this at the moment.
Will you stay out or consider buying back in at the current price?
I might be tempted to buy back in at this price (if I had spare UKOG cash lying around).
Don't wish to be accused of ramping, just my personal opinion.
-- Rapid success case monetisation possible - months versus years in UK:
E. Sadak was discovered and put into production in the same year, 2014, and has seen a total of 10 wells drilled to date. Unlike UK, which requires numerous planning and regulatory steps before production can commence, Turkish petroleum law Article 6 (10) states that licensees are obliged to develop the field and commence production following a discovery. E. Sadak thus demonstrates that licensees are able to transition a successful well test directly into long-term production with minimal delay... (from the RNS of 14/10)
Understand the need to disguise.
You convinced a great many on this board to buy into
this fantastic company ..why come back?
If it goes up on Monday I'll buy some again, drop is overdone i expect it back to 0.19 sooner or later
Monday is the last day of the month when many salaried people get paid. More chance of more buyers around to push the price up so an increase in price may be a false signal.
Ocelot,
''Rapid success case monetisation possible - months versus years in UK:'
E. Sadak was discovered and put into production in the same year, 2014, and has seen a total of 10 wells drilled to date.'
Getting planning permissiom in a densely populated country rather than a barren, mountainous barely populated part of Turkey is going to be different. I also suspect that the operations are less regulated, and the company allowed to produce not necessarily at a rate to maximise ultimate recovery.
But perhaps your second word 'success' is more the reason that HH has not been developed quickly.
2014 the well was drilled and the primary target was dry, 2015 reports were produced calculating vast quantities of Kimmeridge OIP and suggestions that significant volumes could be discovered.
Early 2016 UKOG ran 3 short tests, 18 months afte HH-1 was commenced, nearly a year after the Nutech report. October 2016 they submitted a planning application for 3 x 90 day tests, a new horizontal and a horizontal sidetrack. New documents were submitted for the application up to August 2017, and permission granted in October 2017. But they were busy 2017 and early 2018 concentrating on, and failing at BB.
July 2018 they commenced the ewt and in December 2018 submitted planning for 4 more wells plus an injector. The testing continued and in September 2019 planning granted, 2 documents were submitted in May and July.
End September 2019 HH-2/2z Portland horizontal was started (planning permission granted October 2017) , HH-1z into the Kimmeridge was already no longer mentioned and HH-2 not drilled through the Kimmeridge for information. The delay to HH-2/2z was almost certainly to do with partner issues(Tellurian) rather than planning which was granted October 2017.
So is planning difficult - yes, are there delays between submission and getting approval - yes but there are discussions ongoing and changes made that cause some delay.
Is planning the only reason for UKOG not having 6 horizontals within 6 years of drilling the well - no. The reasons are more likely obvious cooling regarding the Kimmeridge potential (4 of the 6 wells at HH), Portland issues (success), plus partner issues and the distraction of BB.
Loxley is obviously more challenging but there is no suggestion that eventually planning permission will be granted and UKOG's own schedule of H2 2021 probably achievable, which would in any case would be a surprise.
One more point. E Sadak is the only true local analogue to Basur / Resan (on trend, same reservoir). More details of what those 10 production wells are doing would be helpful in understanding what Basur might yield.
Double negative required :-
Loxley is obviously more challenging but there is no suggestion that eventually planning permission will not be granted.........
Think the next placing may be a bullish signal, that Turkey is about to go-ahead.
For long-term investors in UKOG accustomed to the bureaucratic delays of the UK onshore exploration regime, think Turkey will come as a welcome change.
Why are companies given a licence area, if they are unable to get planning to test.
Different authorities for different.., authority, and changing the remit of previous planning applications.
Are councils in turkey run properly unlike in the uk
its a pity central government don,t decide things like this that are of National importance. its incredble that a few numptys can weild such power over the nation.
Ibroxonia,
Depends - if you mean that in a virtual dictatorship citizens rights might be steamrollered - then maybe. Meanwhile the UK system which might be buraeucratic where there are at least some (but not complete) protections against government, businesses and individuals doing as the please without justification
Sting,
I'd be far more in favour if SS used his own money for this pig in a poke.
you can't sue men of straw or women of straw they have no money , you can't take the council house off them , thats why they go to court nothing to loose , They are all on benefit , and legal aid , and had time on their hands
The same as Brexit vote , They were all on Dole and had time to vote , The people who wanted to stay in eu were too busy working , and could not vote , and look at the result They did not want any forgers coming in to work and showing them up G L A
"The same as Brexit vote , They were all on Dole and had time to vote". So our unemployment rate at the time was over 52%?
Is this dead in the water now ? Or is there any hope for a reversal / appeal to fix this issue ? Sorry for the short question.
Will the Council even contest the appeal?
Sinbad01
The council is not going to do anything that as there planning officer's & solicitors have already rejected UKOG offers of extra conditions volanterally applied & both planner's & legal have repeatedly stated that there are NO planning or legal grounds for the permission not to be granted.
Members do not yet understand that apart from costs they will lose many of the conditions which UKOG have volanterally agreed when this goes to appeal.
This will now be decided on a national policy basis & not only will Surrey council lose conditions applied at the Dunsfold application but the national decision will set the precident for all other subsequent permissions.
UKOG have played a blinder in my opinion outsmarting councilor's who believe that it was UKOG rejecting local suppliers when it was council officers as that would leave ground's for an appeal.
But still the NIMBY councilor's voted against.
Now the decisions & many of the comforts applied will be taken away by national planning policy & costs paid from Surrey's local budget.
Well done Surrey councillor's for losing funds & local services for your constituents. I am sure they will remember you at the next council elections.
Wizard,
I agree that the council won't want to risk another farcical rerun.
But I don't agree that any 'voluntary' conditions will be lost. Anything 'offered' in the planning application or subsequently in writing will be part of the application. If it isn't in the application it isn't a condition, and the full planning application considered by the committee is what an appeal will consider.
and unfortunately the appeal decision also won't stop any committee rejecting any future applications - Egdon's successful appeal decision was attached (perhaps not the best idea) to UKOG's final statement.
Hi Sinbad
Unfortunately it doesn’t quite work like that. These politicians have one main focus of interest. Getting re-elected. I have no doubt they will have met with the objectives and locals and given them their full support. I have seen this happen. They may not even be that averse personally to approving the scheme, but if they feel that it could hurt their chances if re-election they will support the objection.
The appeal will be handled by different people who will then approve the decision. In my view this is all about optics.
Let me give an example of similar political interference.
I was tasked with the closure of a secondary school, which is a long and complicated process, involving huge public consultation. Inevitably county council members get involved and so do MPs. The MP made many vociferous public declarations of support for the local community who wanted the school to remain open. He then made an appointment to see me.
This particular MP was the Leader of the House at the time. A General Election was in the offing. The conversation went something along these lines:
MP “Look I e seen all the research you’ve done and I can see this makes perfect sense, but could we perhaps shelve it for now and look at it again after the GE?”
Not all are like this of course, but this person was purely motivated by his own political ends. We did consider the request, for about 5 mins then ploughed on regardless with our plans.
This sadly is how politics often works.
Sinbad,
Let's see what the decision notice says.
As I understand it the application as a whole was rejected. What were these 'voluntary conditions' which presumably were not part of the written application?
Wizard,
Can you really put your faith in central government support for the Loxley project planning application?
If UKOG do not appeal, it follows that Loxley, and other onshore planning applications for oil and gas projects may be refused by local authorities without any fear of consequences or penalties against councils, based purely on rejection of planning policy technicalities.
If UKOG do appeal, will central government support the local authority planners on the technical aspects of the application? They probably will, but arguably, the higher powers that be will assert the development is not needed. After all, OGA has unilaterally ‘paused’ offshore licensing, has no plans for any future onshore licensing and has kicked off a ‘net zero by 2050’ energy policy. Public opinion gone green in all political parties too - which translates to votes in elections irrespective of which party.
And why is a development not needed?
Well, let’s assume the Loxley prospect holds 50 bcf. Assuming a production well yields 5 bcf that means 10 production wells on, say, a 10 year plateau period - or about 5 bcf/year total field production. But 5 bcf is less than 2 LNG cargoes PER YEAR delivered to an existing UK terminal, assuming a typical LNG ship carries ~3 bcf.
Last winter, higher levels of LNG were supplied to UK’s network when compared to the previous winter. In a typical winter, the inter-connectors from Belgium and Holland to predominantly supply gas to the UK to supplement UK North Sea gas production. Last winter (2019/2020) the large levels of supply from LNG, coupled with lower national gas demand due to global warming & renewables, reversed the trend. LNG is trading at about $7/mcf cif, so imported LNG is cost competitive.
Meanwhile, the Chief Engineer driving the UKOG Gravy Train goes full steam ahead as it heads toward the buffers. Toot toot!