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Started: dc2_, 10 May 2024 15:12
Last post: dc2_, 10 May 2024 15:12
Interesting.... the survey is the same as the UK one but in France. Are we looking for business overseas (I assumed we were UK centric in the main i.e. failed to get out of the UK previously)
https://insurance-edge.net/2024/04/26/trakm8-survey-reveals-drivers-attitudes-premium-rates-in-france/
Started: dc2_, 1 May 2024 12:48
Last post: Nosugar, 3 May 2024 15:59
It the value and capacity that they are creating
I think it was £90m ????
Digging deeper, does this explain i) the lack of insurance capacity previously mentioned [see last sentence in quote] ii) the new found confidence that insurance is back. Then there is the reference to ByMiles.... lots to read into this. Why is Trakm8's share price so sh*t........
"The partnership, which is expected to be worth £50m of GWP in the first 12 months, also covers commercial van and includes product distribution through Freedom’s sister company Stella Woman.
Zurich has previously had telematics arrangements with the likes of Carrot, By Miles and My Policy but now will work on a solus agreement in this area with Freedom.
The MGA [Freedom Services] had to pause its telematics insurance offering last year when Italian insurer Unipol withdrew from the UK"
https://www.insuranceage.co.uk/insight/7954772/zurich-strikes-five-year-capacity-deal-with-mga-freedom-services
Great news, do you have a link to save me hunting around or something else?
Freedom services have done a major deal with Zurich
Just need that contract to come in now
Started: dc2_, 28 Apr 2024 15:38
Last post: Pianista, 28 Apr 2024 20:12
The 5* reviews tend to be for the larger accounts, the 1* for the smaller ones - so it's the right way round!
However, based on a much greater number of reviews, Quartix's TrustScore is much better than Trak's. Not that it's done much for Quartix's SP, 70% down since 2021!
Trakm8 reviews are typically polarised but this one stood out. Ok, there is no real information. One assumes the negotiations have already happened (if this is a real review) so not exactly news. Anyway.....
"Joe is fantastic, his customer service is always amazing and he cares about the customer. We are in negotiation for the next 5 years of our account with Trakm8. 5 stars and thank you." - March 2024
https://www.trustpilot.com/reviews/65f2f0923742882d08941c0f
Started: dc2_, 24 Apr 2024 19:48
Last post: dc2_, 24 Apr 2024 19:48
A few minor changes .... only real change is below (and the removal of Penny Searles. as far as I can see.
https://www.trakm8.com/investors/company-information/corporate-governance/
"Despite prolonged downturn in the insurance market due to capacity and funding issues – in the long term our target is still to achieve 1 million connections to our systems. We currently have over 275,000. This substantial increase will provide the level of profitable growth and cash generation that should increase the Group’s share price substantially. The Group continues to focus on growth planning with a commitment to improving the recent insurance sales once the market improves, but also considering ways in which to promote fleet optimisation and to build on and diversify customer relationships. Progress against these plans is monitored by the Board."
Vs (Previously)
https://web.archive.org/web/20230929075048/https://www.trakm8.com/investors/company-information/corporate-governance/
"Despite the short-term impact of Covid-19, in the long term our target is still to achieve 1 million connections to our systems. We currently have over 318,000. This substantial increase will provide the level of profitable growth and cash generation that should increase the Group’s share price substantially. The Group has specific growth plans in place across its two business units: Insurance and Automotive and Fleet and Optimisation. Progress against these plans is monitored by the Board."
A tongue in cheek point... a substantial improvement of just 100% in the share price will bring it back to the days of the latter statement....lol
Finally got a return on my Trakm8 investment - managed to nab a notepad from their stand at the CV show. All in all, stand looked great and bigger than I was expecting. They even appeared to be busy.....
The show itself was ok and some of the big competitors were absent e.g. VisionTrack (who usually have the largest stand). Microlise were there in spirit (via TruTac). The show was definitely busier than last year but I'm not convinced it is back to pre-covid levels.
The CV show stand looks impressive - love the Iceland van.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/nickguise_cvshow-cvshow2024-fleet-activity-7188254096057933824-NiMa?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Started: dc2_, 12 Apr 2024 13:42
Last post: Pianista, 18 Apr 2024 21:03
Good point - it could be related. Surely we won't have to wait another 11 1/2 months to find out.
Being forever optimistic and usualky very wrong - is this related to the optimization (sp?) contract?
Fantastic endorsement from Iceland. If only it were reflected in the SP, now only 9.4p to buy! So frustrating...
A nice post re Iceland that includes compliments to Trakm8
"I am personally very proud that 2 of the awards that we have been shortlisted for (Technology Project of the Year and Delivery Solution of the Year) are for the program of works that I have led for the implementation of our fantastic new Delivery Scheduler System, which utilises AI optimisation software, developed in partnership with Trakm8 which has supported our wider Digital Transformation agenda."
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/seran-houlton-1a883812_retailsystemsawards2024-greatteamwork-collaboration-activity-7184520606380392449-XnBg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Started: Pianista, 11 Apr 2024 14:30
Last post: Pianista, 11 Apr 2024 14:50
Yes, it could be high staff turnover, but is that due to getting rid of the dead wood, or after the rats have left the proverbial?
Great find..... I guess it always comes down to the following - high staff turnover or growth (probably the former, hopefully the latter - maybe a bit of both)
“Join the @Trakm8 team! We're on the lookout for passionate individuals to fill key roles within our company. If you're ready to embark on an exciting journey in the world of technology and innovation, then look no further.”
Started: Pianista, 9 Apr 2024 17:20
Last post: dc2_, 10 Apr 2024 09:08
Thanks, I think that makes a lot of sense
What I mean is, I'm pinning my hopes for a recovery in the SP on the contract rather than a takeover - though I still don't think the language ML have used necessarily makes a takeover unlikely, because I think when ML talk about M&A, Trak being already an associated company is regarded as a special case, not to be lumped in with the various other companies they are targeting.
Not sure what you mean by 'more store' - if the contract does get signed I expect this to be a bumper year as it rolls two profitable years into one (assuming insurance capacity [whatever that means] has got back on track).
My take on the update from ML is that they either think Trak is already a done deal (they don't need to acquire anymore, or it will come naturally) or they are not interested (because Trak does not have an international reach). I.e. no imminent deal
From Ml's final results today:
"The Company remains alert to further acquisition opportunities, particularly internationally, both in markets in which we already operate as well as new geographies.
"M&A remains a core part of our strategy and we continue to see a robust pipeline of opportunities. We continue to assess further acquisition opportunities, with a current focus on international business, both in new geographies and in those in which we already operate, and will act appropriately should they align with our immediate and long-term strategic focus."
Personally, as regards the possibility of Trak becoming a target, I'm setting more store by that elusive software contract than anything else....I just hope we're not kept waiting again till the end of the financial year!
Started: dc2_, 6 Apr 2024 18:38
Last post: Knowbodyyouknow, 9 Apr 2024 07:06
Bunch of people jumped ship, recently?
Sales director? Group or..? If group, that’s a big job and generates the question of why there’s a vacancy. Clearing the chaff after poor performance? Or simply the transient nature of sales / the industry? Point is, they’re pushing on.
Agree re the ‘expanding rapidly’ … should that read, expiring rapidly? Or expending rapidly. Trakm8 are certainly known for typos…
GLA
"The company is expanding rapidly...". Sounds good (except if they've always been saying that!).
As of writing - 7 jobs!!!!
Corporate Sales Manager
Full Stack Software Engineer
Account Manager
Junior Application Engineer
Technical Support Advisor
Sales Director – Insurance & Automotive
Internal Sales Executive
https://www.trakm8.com/careers/
Sorry I missed all the fun yesterday
Ml raza get closer to full control
I would imagine there is clause that stops them from buying shares on the open market
Just a question of when not if
Jw and trakm8 need a good run so that the end price is closer to 50p
Ml and raza on a no lose
If trakm8 do well they benefit
If doesn't go well they get it on the cheap
As stated how long can jw keep pulling rabbits out the hat
Made me laugh oh by the way just spent another half a mil
Let's hope that contract is a stonker
Last post: Pianista, 3 Apr 2024 12:27
KBYK - it certainly does feel like Groundhog Day!
Interesting that ML/Raza now have £1.1m tied up in CLN's, and with the lower conversion price of 8.1p, this will potentially give them an additional 13.6m shares, taking them to c38% I think of the enlarged share capital if no one else converts. Edging ever closer to a takeover?
By the way, I wonder who the undisclosed subscribers - who've stumped up £590k of the £990k - are. It's hard to believe, with the large sums involved, that they're not connected with the company in some, possibly obscure, way.
dc2 - maybe agreement was close when the software contract was first mentioned. Then something or other happened to delay it....
I now just think it was unfortunate timing. They had no choice to report the contract slippage. My bigger beef is why they had to announce it as material in the first place. Surely no contract has merit until it is signed.
*Were they crying wolf last week, I wonder?*
Strange isn't it. In fact the whole thing is just odd. It's a kind of agonising, endless saga that never quite seems to get over the finish line one way or the other. Perhaps Raza is now caught in this strange never ending journey.
Still, the company lives to fight another day - or year at least.
Yes, what stands out is the timing. Were they crying wolf last week, I wonder?
On the face of it, today's announcement is a clear vote of confidence from the directors. Cynics would say, yes but it's in their interests to keep the company going, because that will ensure they can continue to draw their inflated salaries.
However, this is not true of Raza, who's put in another £100k. Then again, what is that to someone worth well over £50m?
Overall, though, I think today's RNS is good news. I'm surprised therefore to see that you can buy the shares today cheaper than you could yesterday. I don't think this will last. It could even double if the elusive software contract is landed.
That's how I read it.
Micro driving a hard bargain...
The odd thing is why they don't simple buy the company and have done with it. One can only assume that JFW won't sell for anything like a reasonable price.
Started: dc2_, 25 Mar 2024 07:42
Last post: Pianista, 25 Mar 2024 12:25
"Why would you sign a contract with a business that is potentially going to run out of cash"
All the more reason for ML to take over the company.
Though in any case a substantial contract should automatically stop them running out of cash.
It becomes self fulfilling
People start betting against it
5p by the end of the week
Why would you sign a contract with a business that is potentially going to run out of cash
How can you go to these trade fairs and everything is great we have great products oh by the way you can buy every share for £4m
Is it another Iranian contract????? Or with Mr P Tin ???
According to Allenby, "Management remains confident that a contract will be secured."
The RNS was not nearly so bullish, but perhaps they didn't want to tempt fate.
By the way, QTX has lost 70% of its value since 2021, so they've also had their fair share of banana skins.
Much clearer.
Not sure why Trakm8 couldn't lay it out in a similar fashion in the RNS.
Does sound like they can weather the loss for now, due to their cost savings plan.
Huge loss of connections isn't great, but the hope (BOD's words) is for a surge.
If the contract gets signed shortly after April, then this will be back to 13-14p. If not, then could sit around 8p for the foreseeable - unless there's an offer / placement.
For some reason I'm still drawn to this horrendous saga, so will keep an eye on developments.
Looking at QTX and SAAS - both consistently profitable (albeit some reduction over at QTX) - and it does suggest that Trakm8 is simply badly run.
Not a lot said but 2025 estimates remains broadly the same which implies Trak don't see an immediate recovery in insurance (probably not said correcly, more like the contract, if signed, compensates for loss of business). A significant loss of device connections (down to 275k) and the fact that no money was expected to change hands in FY24 (at the signing of the contract). No talk of fair price.
https://www.allenbycapital.com/client/trakm8-holdings-plc/
I am not sure you are looking at it incorrectly - another way to look at it (assuming the contract does indeed have a high value) is that the November update would have been the profit warning. Putting the contract to the side, the question is how long can Trak sustain poor performance in insurance.
Perhaps I’m looking at it through jaded glasses. Doesn’t help that the RNS is characteristically vague and ambiguous.
I do however wish everyone here the best of luck.
That’s certainly one way of looking at it and you may well be right . I genuinely hope you are.
I’m curious as to how they’re supposed to keep the lights on with such a massive loss and only £0.4m in cash.
Are we getting things out of proportion here?
i) A contract signing slipped into the next financial year - they did not say it was dead in the water.
ii) A couple of bad months in insurance - it isn't the only thing they do AND they have approximately the same amount of cash as forecast by Allenby 6 months earlier.
The swing from profit to loss is large, implies the contract is very significant.
Obviously if the contract does not get signed and the insurance side does not recover then we are in trouble.
I believe the first investment was to save an important/significant contract - it was described as 'strategic' at the time and there's no doubt Trakm8 was finished without the investment. The second injection probably sprang from a false hope / mirage of jam somewhere on a near horizon. Lord knows there have been enough promises made over the last decade really. Hope springs eternal but can also cloud judgement.
Not sure we can rely on the judgement of the previous FD either. And one thing is clear, JFW is one hell of a salesman ...everyone has been buying whatever he's been selling, despite the delivery of absolutely nothing.
I remember a bear on another BB saying years ago that trakm8 were excellent at making no money. In 20 years how often has a profit been turned? Meanwhile the BOD has been drawing fat salaries for delivering very little. The slight consolation in that respect is they've also seen the value of their holdings evaporate over the years ...the difference however is twofold:
1. They've been well paid to watch the show; and
2. Most of their holdings came for very little, if any, outlay. And remember, they sold a bunch at £1.70p a few years back.
No. This is exactly as it look: the music has stopped, the lights are on and the party is over. Only the route to the exit remains unclear, but not for long; not for long.
GLA
Started: Frac, 22 Mar 2024 09:43
Last post: Pianista, 23 Mar 2024 13:23
At the end of the day, all we can do now is sit and wait for the next news - something we're all well used to doing....
If nothing else, it's livened up this discussion board!
Raza gets it for 14p per share is my bet
I guess one thing. If this is the end - at least we will be put out of our misery.
Agree with Pianista - both about the brainstorm and impending announcement - perhaps from both Trak and ML. I suspect there are some on the ML BOD questioning the wisdom of getting into bed with Trakm8 in the first place. I believe it was to salvage an order at the time and they foolishly bought Trakm8's nonsense (like so many of us). Interestingly, Raza has made a number of personal share purchases at way about current prices.
Anyway, they have only £0.4m of cash at hand (whether this includes revolving facilities isn't clear )- never mind what kind of covenants may be on the verge of being breached (or have now been). They also say they are having a bad time of it in the insurance market currently and a 'hoping for' (read, completely relying on) a sudden surge in demand for Trakm8 products. Even with the contract and projected revenues, they basically said there is no jam at the end of FY-2025. The first RNS that has no jam for the long, stale toast of long-suffering holders.
No, they simply must raise cash or sell. So, whilst ML are brainstorming, JFW is probably calling around the city with his cap in hand. Either option will be the next announcement, I believe. My money is on sell, as I can't see how anyone can be persuaded to back this almost fatally wounded horse. Unless, Watkins and the BOD come to rescue entirely alone - which is possible, but at what cost to PIs?!
You have to hand it to them dc2, they've managed to fool everyone, including Microlise, Allenby - and the lenders probably.
As implied by a recent posting of yours, they could miraculously secure the contract and the insurance market could miraculously recover. But in the meantime, I hate to think what the balance sheet at 31/3/24 will look like. It certainly won't look pretty, so I'd expect further announcements shortly.
Microlise will be particularly put out - 20% of the results of Trak are reflected in ML's profit and loss account, so the swing of £3.2m represents a "hit" of £0.64m. In a company with PBT of £3m that's gonna hurt, so this fiasco arguably requires an RNS from ML too!
So I'd be amazed if ML weren't holding a brainstorming session entitled "How do you solve a problem like Trak?" as I speak.
Started: aimtitan, 22 Mar 2024 08:55
Last post: aimtitan, 22 Mar 2024 09:30
Also attractive to swing traders
Doubt it. I imagine insiders will take the opportunity to store up the holdings
Yes, I had similar quotes - 25,000 for 7p each. But didn't pull the trigger as you never know with falling knives - I've cut myself before.
And it still might head lower.
Depends on whether today's buying / churn is sustained.
I passed up the opportunity to buy 100,000 at around 8p - I feared it could go even lower in the short term. That fear now appears to have been unfounded.
Easy money!
Started: Knowbodyyouknow, 22 Mar 2024 08:14
Last post: Pianista, 22 Mar 2024 08:51
Others have said it all really. Very disappointing RNS in terms of both the message and the level of detail.
With a market cap of just £4m, they are certainly vulnerable to a takeover by ML. But at what price? Obviously we can forget £1 per share, but if ML can see the potential, JW may be able to extract, say, 20p per share from them, i.e. £10m.
It will be interesting to see what Allenby have to say, particularly in relation to "fair value", which they've previously estimated at around 40p per share.
Allenby suggested cash would be around this much (based on a re-calculation because they purchased a couple of inhouse data centres). There are many questions outstanding around how their income has been affected by the insurance devices. I suspect they will draw on their over-draft relying upon the contract signing (and hoping to clear the insurance storm).
Well, the price is moving back up. I was tempted, but the remaining opaqueness around the cash situation, given the massive loss led me to pass in the end.
Good luck to everyone here.
I think that's always been one of the problems here, the company's reliance on single contracts. Just makes things too precarious, too reliant on jam tomorrow.
Would be interesting to know what thoughts Micro have on this - perhaps, as you say, this the moment, but at what price.
Any thoughts on the cash situation?
Reckon this may be the time Microlise take the company....
How did they get this so wrong - 6 months ago, it was not that bad and even assuming the delay in contract you would have not foreseen this. I'm not understanding the maths here. Forecast of £21m now down to £16.4 on the basis of a couple of bad insurance months (Feb/March) and the failure to sign a contract. The contract can't be worth that much i.e. it should be a value added to the revenue not underpinning it.
Started: dc2_, 19 Mar 2024 10:29
Last post: Knowbodyyouknow, 22 Mar 2024 07:27
Yes, just saw the RNS flag flying over here ...on a Friday - not typically a good sign.
*The Group's cash position at 31 March 2024 is anticipated to be approximately £0.4m.*
Free cash after or before the loss? What are their monthly overheads?
This should have been a much more detailed statement outlining exactly how they now intend to survive...
Nothing is certain in this game, but I think it's highly likely that investors' inestimable patience will be rewarded with a contract RNS.
If we have misjudged the situation, then so have respected industry leaders and insiders Microlise, who expect to increase their stake later this year to just under 30%, so we're in good company at least!
Anyway, not long to wait now...
As NoSugar reminds us, we are nearing the end of the FY - 7 business days in fact. So the RNS options I see are:
1) Contract signed, but no need to announce as nothing material has changed.
2) Contract to be signed, RNS to state in the next few days.
3) Contract not going to be signed this side of the FY, RNS to profit warn. I suspect this would be known already, so an announcement would have already been made.
In the past they have announced contract renewals which they had previously highlighted as essential. I guess the main thing is we will find out soon enough.
I think my greviance is in the fact that they don't seem to RNS the good stuff (like the Direct Line renewal) whilst simultaneously trying to court investor's attentions with their capital market days (although, none this year)
Started: dc2_, 16 Mar 2024 17:32
Last post: Knowbodyyouknow, 18 Mar 2024 13:52
Good point - wasn't just Sainsbury's, however - Tesco as well.
Apparently it was more to do with the wi-fi (so my delivery driver said)
Is this on us? Hope not....but this update could be related to the contract signing stuff. To be fair, this appears more far reaching than just route optimisation and extends to problems in-store (I noticed this afternoon that the store was off-line) and Argos.
"Sainsbury’s said it was unable to fulfil the “vast majority” of its online orders because of a technical glitch. The supermarket chain said an overnight software update had led to the problems affecting some stores, grocery online services and its ability to contact customers."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/16/sainsburys-grocery-deliveries-hit-by-technical-issue
Started: dc2_, 12 Mar 2024 11:38
Last post: Nosugar, 16 Mar 2024 10:19
OK
Well direct will have had to explain their strategy hopefully that means using data to improve their performance via telemetry
Early Easter this year and then couple of major industry shows in mid late April
Trakm8 showcasing their new products hopefully exciting times for them and us
Direct Line takeover now seems dead in the water...whatever that means, if anything, for Trak.
Dc
Thanks for sharing
Certainly not bad news
Direct line been in a pickle for a while
I think they might be fighting off a bid???
Plus hopefully looking to regrow their telematics offering as others are leaving them behind
I was thinking in the context of its bombed-out share price, and the prolonged radio silence. Every little helps, whether it's Tesco or Trak...
Started: Nosugar, 11 Mar 2024 09:01
Last post: Nosugar, 11 Mar 2024 17:27
Yes on reflection think you are right
April seems more likely based on history
I emailed JW one year and it is not a given that they will announce anything prior to April.
On the one hand, if the contract gets signed you would hope they announce it - on the other, if this does not change anything materially then, perhaps, they do not need to tell us.
I'd also add that all the loans have to be repaid/renegotiated before Sept - so they should announce something in that respect (although not necessarily now) - this is why I think the CLN will be converted - too many pay up days coming at once.
Must be getting close now
This week or next .....
Mmmm
Started: Knowbodyyouknow, 28 Feb 2024 12:59
Last post: dc2_, 8 Mar 2024 15:10
Interesting observation - and we still have a single digit 'code' trade
Looks like there's a limit order seller in the background.
But not a huge quantity - 10,000 shares go for 14.5p each, whereas 20,000 go for 15.77.
Was the same yesterday, and will be I suspect until the seller clears or some other such event takes place.
Just amateur thoughts.
Odd trades are happening too frequently for them not to be secret messages between MMs. I've no idea what they mean, though. But presumably some big movement in the SP is about to happen - hopefully not downwards!
More, literally odd trades, today - is this a coded message - lol
There is of course the option to pay the money back, I assume.
Very odd trades, reported.
Perhaps the high school investment club is tidying up their portfolio, prior to Easter...?
Started: dc2_, 26 Feb 2024 10:14
Last post: Nosugar, 26 Feb 2024 19:00
I am guessing but a number of important industry shows coming up.
Potentially they will want to announce around the show and the normal march trading update
Don't panic
Don't tell them your name pike
Interesting thought about ML, but if it were them I don't think it would take this long to sign.
As an after thought - I suppose the most likely client, the one where you have the most confidence, would by Microlise. Just not sure if they need what Trak is offering. It would certainly make me wonder about a share purchase from ML.
You make a really good point there - it obviously sits ok with Allenby, implying huge confidence in it happening. I do not know any other case where a contract signing, some distance away, would yield such a positive response (although, the general market doesn't seem convinced, if the share price is anything to go by). Certainly implies very good relationship between Trak and the client, and given JW was personally tagged in the last Iceland post, that is where I reckon it comes from - possibly golf course contracts lol. I once thought it was Sainsbury's but I seem to recall they signed their last contract prior to development. I guess we will find out soon enough.
Dc2 - we're all thinking the same...
Also, I'm not sure why, according to Allenby, current year profit should be so dependent on a software contract that won't be signed until just before the end of the year. Surely the bulk of the profit will accrue in future years?
Started: dc2_, 14 Feb 2024 13:36
Last post: Nosugar, 16 Feb 2024 10:40
Hi
Meant to say I watched their promo or promotional video
Witch I thought was good
Smacks of a "copy and paste" from some historical piece on the Trakm8 website...unfortunately. That's not to say we won't get the long-awaited RNS...eventually.
Not sure what you mean - pro.o ? Thanks (me being dumb)
Watched their pro.o stuff the other day
Must admit it was good
Think you are right - he was the person who said 350,000 units - so seems to play hard and fast with the data - or is he really JW drip feeding clues, lol
This was a reassuring post re Iceland. I original worried about the WhatVan article.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/phil-cane_fantastic-couple-of-days-with-our-fleet-partners-activity-7161722516317671424-DoBj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Yes, a merry Xmas to you too, and thanks for all your informative posts.
Let's hope 2024 is when the "jam" finally arrives....
Thanks - and have a good xmas all
Must be something different - according to Trak's RNS dated 30/3/23, the Iceland contract was extended till 2027.
Last post: Pianista, 2 Feb 2024 18:18
The good news is that they’ve not RNS’d any bad news on the “significant” software sales contract, so they must still be confident of landing it in the next month or two.
The last update did state the contract was expected to land in late Q4 so that means March to me
The days tick by and not bankrupt yet
Still a nil valuation on trakm8
Definitely good news for ML. Still not convinced there is a deal to be had, because I don't think a price will be agreed between the two CEOs i.e. too far apart. Fingers crossed though (as always)
ML's SP was up more than 20% today, following an impressive TU. As Trak's main investor - and potential bidder? - this is good to see.