We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Your right
The end is nigh
Come on razza make your move
This lot would struggle to run a bath
As recently as 24/11/23, Allenby were expecting an adjusted PBT of £1.8m. Trak now say they are expecting an adjusted loss before tax of £1.4m, i.e. a £3.2m turnaround. And that's even after cutting out £1m of overheads. Incredible! Heads must roll, surely.
How does Trakm8 soak up a £1.4m loss?
And what if the hoped for surge doesn’t turn up?
Two huge questions I’d want answered, personally.
They have to raise cash or sell the business. Perhaps I’m missing something but that to me seem obvious.
I know I have Stockholm syndrome when it comes to this share....On reflection of today's announcement, was it really that bad - I mean, is this really the last nail in the coffin - I am not so sure?
1) From their H1 update they had £0.87m in cash with net outgoings of £0.25m. They now have approximately £0.4m (and this was expected by Allenby due to capital investment). If they maintain the same burn as H1 going forward then 6 months are assured. They should even do better if these data centres do provide immediate ROI. Obviously there are bank loans to pay back soon.
2) This is the big one for me. If JW is being honest (no clue) about the motive for not signing the contract (not the best commercial outcome) then it implies a deal was on the table. If Trakm8 are in such a desperate state you would expect them to sign whatever i.e. something is better than nothing going into the abyss. Obviously, if the talks broke down then they should not be saying there is a deal is still to be had. Main point it why sign your own death warrant.
Don't get me wrong - the RNS does not read well and JW and the team excel in disappointment. I sometimes wonder if they just hate the share holders and long for the share price to be so low that they can take it private.
All this speculation would be moot, if the company provided clear and detailed RNS. What was provide seems rushed and ill-thought-out. It probably wasn't but that's the impression.
Lots of sells over at SAAS - Probably feeding through a little. At the very least, their continuing faith in Watkins must be denting the credibility of what was/is a pretty stellar reputation.
ML now also have the recoverability of their £1m convertible loan note to worry about, so I don't think it would suit them to just allow Trak to fall into admin.
Agree.
This is pure take out play now. Question is simply how much.
Could Micro let it fall into admin before picking up or picking over the bones? (genuine comment - not being facetious)
At the current SP, ML are nursing a big loss - over £1m - on their investment in Trak. ML's annual PBT is only around £3m, so it must be quite worrying for them.
The question is, will it galvanise them into action at last?
If not, is there anyone else who would be interested in Trak? A bid at, say, 20p from someone else may even be attractive to ML as a way of ending their own misery. Either that or they'd be prompted to match it.
Indeed - I noticed a 10 today - translation - suckers!
We now know what all the coded messages in those minuscule trades mean!
"Hopeful ???"
Yes, that word sent shivers down my spine.
"Why is it necessary to delay the signing for the best commercial outcome? What does that even look like - any ideas?"
No, it's bizarre. For me, the RNS raises more questions than it answers, which is why I held off from topping up.
*Why is it necessary to delay the signing for the best commercial outcome? What does that even look like - any ideas?*
Sounded to me like they hadn't even got the deal over the line.
This was also pretty worrying:
"the Group anticipates that its FY-2025 results will be adversely impacted by the lower levels of insurance connections, as outlined earlier. At this stage, the extent of any shortfall is unclear as this will depend on insurance capacity returning at which point the Board is hopeful there will be a surge in demand."
Hopeful ???
Plucky spirit and optimism only take one so far...
Not an ideal basis to go cap in hand to the market..?
Interestingly, when the Sainsbury's contract was delayed they sounded much more confident. To me, this sounds a whole lot more uncertain about whether they can even get the deal over the line.
Unless I a missing something (and that is quite possible given the poorly detailed TU), the only thing that should happen is that JW falls on his sword and resigns. The fact that none of them seem to take responsibility for this monumental fail is either down to arrogance or something we don't know. I still cannot understand the contract. Why is it necessary to delay the signing for the best commercial outcome? What does that even look like - any ideas?
No. Problem is Watkins and Co have run what was once a profitable company (£2m-odd, one year) with decent revenues (£30m) completely into the ground. They simply can't be brought along for a further ride. So, two questions then become pertinent:
1. what will Micro be prepared to put up to take control of the company and show Watkins and Co the door?
2. what will Watkins and co accept?
Is there a 3rd take private option?
It certainly feels like we're entering the endgame, because I can't see ML just passively shoring up the company once more.
It's time to take the bull by the horns and bring Trak (minus the company's senior management) into the ML fold.
Easy 2x from here no matter what tbh
Very low risk
This is 0.37 book value, even on that basis there is a 4x
I imagine a buyout with microlise shares and management will be absorbed into Microlise
Good enough for a dable
The obstacle is surely Watkins and Cronies - a buy out would mean the end of the gravy train. Broadly speaking they have eaten well over the years. I suspect they will try for a placement first. MO of Aim companies.
They would buyout and use synergies to monetise optimise and scale. I imagine microlise is considering this as we speak given the attractive price.
Who is going to dip their hand in for a placement? Microlise? If they do then with the loan note, they will be forced surely to take the entire company?
I think this is the end of the story here, one way or another - i.e., in terms of Trakm8 existing in its current form.
Microlise must be as disappointed as those of us who have lost a lot here.
If not then we’ll all lose our shirt
Also attractive to swing traders
Doubt it. I imagine insiders will take the opportunity to store up the holdings
Yes, I had similar quotes - 25,000 for 7p each. But didn't pull the trigger as you never know with falling knives - I've cut myself before.
And it still might head lower.
Depends on whether today's buying / churn is sustained.