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I want it to happen as well....was just pointing out how easy it is for things to be manipulated these days.
Antonvb, you won't need 25%, some big stake holders are strongly against the merger already (e.g. see Palliser letter with their 5% stake and I'm sure you can find some other bankers etc.) I think the deal is beneficial for TLW and wouldn't want to see all the effort Rahul put in being wasted.
Here's a thought.....how much would it cost one of the big Tullow shorters to build up a big enough stake in CNE to be able to scupper the merger. Think only 25% of CNE holders need to vote against it and at the current CNE price that's roughly only roughly £185m to buy 25%.
Mr Skipper,
How did you get to this 100p valuation - with about 2.3B shares in issue?
We don't know the details of the Kenya deal, and with their national debt crisis, the new leader just might have to do as they are told by the bankers.
Mr Skipper, we don't Hoover anymore, we generically vacuum.
Kenya deal waits the new government in Nairobi and as soon as that is announced the merger will be finalised. Tullow SP will probably hoover around 60 when that happens. It could be soon but it could be few months down the line. After merger and dividend announcement the stock will move above 1£.
no arguement, i just cant see it. Kenya is politics dependent and how much money can you fit into a paper bag imho.
Honestly.....I think this merger is a done deal as is Kenya.... Rahul delivers....not everything can be taken on face value
as a CNE SH i think this merger is dead in the water at current prices. unless Kenya comes off for TLW in the short term, there is nothing going for it from CNE's POV. i'm probably out at 235+ in any case and will keep my TLW shareholding for the time being.
As it stands the merger is clearly dependent on the Kenya deal being sorted, with a corresponding increase in Tlw SP before the merger vote. Without it there's no way Capricorn shareholders will approve given recent voicings. President election is close,as expected. An uncontested result will be a positive, whoever wins. Currently Odinga has 3% lead with 75% of voting districts declared
m8, CNE should be listed under "BoD dont know what they are doing apart from feathering their own nest (allegedly)" section of the LSE. i think most smaller SH's dont mind the merger as they see it as a step up from what there currently is, but the Big SH's can see through it (for their own good of course).
Based on the current share price of CNE of 229 we should be minimum 60p not 51.5p??? Still waiting patiently for this merger to conclude one way or the other as at the moment we going no where.
Would much prefer for the deal to be dead than Tlw improving the already generous terms. CNE should be classified under Financials not Oil & Gas. Their board have no strategy to utilise the cash and if CNE shareholders are saying the company is undervalued, all I'll say is welcome to our world. Unless Tlw have stellar half year results and announce a stellar Kenyan deal then it will have been an ill conceived approach by Rahul and will reflect badly on him. Particularly given his experience in mergers and acquisitions for Morgan Stanley - think it was Morgan Stanley
It's pretty obvious that Kenya will happen, the TLW share price will re-rate and the merger will happen as will be a no brainer for CNE holders then. That is why when the merger was announced no fixed date was given. I expect we'll get the Kenya announcement within the next 3 months and the merger will happen in Q4. That is assuming the new Kenyan government play their part, if not then the merger is unlikey to happen as who'd voluntarily swap £2.20 for £1.90.