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LuckyLuciano, high gas prices has made "Dirty" coal become more financially attractive because industries will not pay the high gas prices, this in turn has pushed up coal prices to record levels where we are today. National governments will try to bring gas prices back under control ( recent news) as it is in their interest for the consumer and they don't want an increase in coal demand for environmental reasons. It's all very political. I have also noticed coal prices have gone up again today.
I am not sure which way this is going to turn out as many industries in the middle order world still rely heavily on coal.
Kenny-G I am not sure in which way high gas price could affect adversely Tga, but anyway it seems be coming down from recent high, Russia promised to open the tap and possibly price should stabilized.
Imo what is intriguing for coal is what isaytomato posted earlier...
If is true that this meeting will take place, have to say some big weigh players are going to take a visit to Eskom SA.
With the UN Climate been set in Uk there will be some political will from western nation to bring something concrete to the table. Eskon debit is some $28bill, is a lot but compared to the trillions $ been printed recently, is not impossible that some finance will go Eskom way for it to phase out coal and go green.
For Tga this could be even better it all depends what restriction and request will be placed on SA mining and electricity production, IF all the above take place....indeed.
LuckyLuciano, I had invested in Peabody and Alpha Metallurgic and sold them on Friday also at break even point.
Thungela by far is the share I have most optimism for and will buy back in very soon in several stages. I too, want to wait to see what the SA fund does. If they off load more shares, which I think they will, then Thungela will only go down, and if the general market takes a downturn, short term then it will go down more.
Long term this share will rise substantially as the PE is so low.
I have been burnt several times on spread betting and I have learnt it is not for me.
We will see what the week brings, we may have to eat our words and buy back in at a higher price.
I think for me, staying on the sidelines is a risk worth taking, even if it is just for a week or two.
I am also slightly worried about the high gas prices starting to filter into the national news which may adversely affect Thungela.
Kenny_G it's unbelievable same trading strategic and same 75% of portfolio . I too also had a look at other coal miners price on Friday, the sp drop for them is more likely due to the main US index, than anything else, but they have also rise quite sbstancially considering that last numbers they all made a loss. This SA fund has come out with 2 rns in a short space of time, not to deramp guys/girls but one can easily think there will be more... Or maybe not. They may want out (the SA) to clean their act so that they may get some money from IMF to help going green (big meeting coming up.. Someone posted) but these are all fantasies... Who knows. Anyhow interesting times folks.
Lazzy your analogy with horse racing bets, make me believe that you have more a Montecarlo Casino approach to investing, hence down to probabilities. Many hedge fund use this approach making lots of small gains or whatever their computer model tells them, theses are automated trading that for a single brain human been are impossible to execute... Hence I personally having tried, stay out of spread betting etc...do look at technicals though and do some time trade purely on that info. It's difficult to get it right as often technical and fundamental speak a different language and tell a different story.
Dabbler1 what's your take on US steel... Kind of conundrum right now, cooking coal going up but also steel price near all time high, China cutting steel productions was a bonus... Will it last?
Quite a few of us declaring 'out' positions on Friday then.
Will be very interesting to see what occurs on Monday.
US steel is an area I have never even thought of investing in, and lucky, I sincerely hope you haven’t mistimed your exit from them as they have cheap and plentiful energy supplies which most countries and definitely Western Europe don’t have.
So we have a few investors selling wanting a lower price for re entry and prepared to pay more if need be. I will be seeing what happens next week although still in doubt to sell as the divi is keeping me in I cannot see this going below £3.10 I feel with the drop from £3.5 range the selling of SA has already been mopped up by the market.
Good day all
Lucky..The first rule of investing is and should be the number one rule for all investors.. Which is of course the less you lose, the more you win.!!!!. I learnt that the hard way but once I got to understand the rule, I made more money....However, I learnt it from betting professionally on the horses and those racing profits are what I invest here. I also have non-share investments which provide me with a consistent residual income but like shares because if you do undertake very detailed research on a company, you can make money...As many here have stated TGA is probably a unique share but not unique enough to avoid a pullback after recent gains.
I would be delighted to see a pull back as then I will be back into TGA but it will be impossible to get the timing right IMO, but as long as I get in at less than I got out which was Friday, I will be happy. My intention is to lock TGA shares away as I want the dividend, even if long term I believe the price of thermal coal will stablise at a lower level...Finally, your handle unfortunately causes you grieve amongst posters just as mine does
Hi LuckyLuciano, I am in exactly the same opinion as your good self. I sold all my holdings in Thungela on Friday after the RNS came out and the drop on the US markets. I am prepared to buy in at a higher price if need be, but I feel with the selling of SA Fund and the down market in general, it is a chance I want to take. I don't know when the SA fund will stop selling. I will be buying in also at 300 - 305 if it goes that low. If not, then I will buy in at a higher price than I sold for. A lot of Coal stocks have been dropping in the last few days and I want to see if they continue to drop over the next week of two. By the way my portfolio is/was 75% Thungela that is how confident I am in the long term, but short term I want to wait on the sidelines.
Good luck to everyone on here.
Thanks CM great post and appreciate you speak your mind, is the best way for every reader here to assess the situation and contribute..... Imo with Tga something material has changed with SA fund starting to sell. That was not factored in before hence my risk/reward was positive, is not only because I was at breakeven with my investment. I suppose if I was 50/100% in profit I could have decide to hold on a little longer.... On of the first commandment of investing is: First don't lose money. I suppose that comes before first make money. I am also watching closely the main indexes which can never be overlooked. So what's next? As mentioned I have also sold 3 very good US steel maker, i timed my entry completely wrong. They are all on my radar Tga, first of all, I might look a bit more at Relative Strength Index indicator now and other tech. To re_entry, also for the steel maker next supposedly very good numbers are out end October and may play the news release on them. For Tga a good entry would be 300ish if it gets there. Also many miners Majors and non imo are reaching good entry point and will keep an eye on them....
Where to next then?? THS? BOD? SLP?
I have hesitated saying this, Lucky, but you really ought to change your name. After all, you can’t really praise a share, do so so vociferously, and to do it in comment after comment, only to sell the moment the SP dips. Your words don’t seem to match your actions, and It implies that you don’t consider yourself lucky.
I am surprised at your reason because, with respect, it’s a rookie mistake to sell when you’re about to move from profit into loss. The market doesn’t know your entry point, and whether a share is good value isn’t affected by the price you paid.
Having said that, I sincerely respect your decision to declare when you are in and out - that takes courage - and of course only you can decide what makes you feel comfortable and when to sell. I wish you good luck for the future.
Thank you TM and same to you, hope you make a good profit..... If my trading decision for me won't work out, no matter, many other opportunities out there. It does seem I am doing something right though, yesterday sold 3 US steel producers I got in recently, on the hipe of projected ridiculous cash flow compared to market cap, well today another 7/8 % down.... Glad I got out. The general market seems very choppy right now and Tga is an exception but as I said not prepared to fight a seller..
TREK..Your mention of TGA on the AVCT board got me involved here, but 2 days ago I got wind of what was coming with the first sale by SA Invest Co..So the downward pressure today was to be expected, however, I got out bar 1 share..I am on Monday or next week prepared to get back in, even if it means I have to pay more per share. I suspect the selling wind today, caused others to do the same as me, knowing they can get back in, even at a higher price, for the30% dividend next year..Next week is going to look better for AVCT, ODX and ABDX, as with LFT back in the groove, I might get more into profit with those 3, and use the profit to get even more in TGA..as who would not want a slug of 30% of FCF in a company with a product in demand?.
Finally, FWIW, the next 3 months on AIM is for sure going to be exciting, after many months in The Doldrums..eventually the wind does arrive for all sailors.
Good luck, LuckyL,
I have a different view. The selling has been orderly. 2% has been absorbed by the market in a few days. Had we not had a seller then the SP could well be over or close to £4.
The SA govt may only be selling because the mcap is too small so doesn’t fit in with their high risk investments. Their holding could have been as a result of a strategic stake in AAL. TGA no longer fits their MO. So selling is not necessarily a sleight on TGA. Just strategic.
Up until now selling has been met with a rising SP so it has provided liquidity.
Selling comes to an end. Some of my best investments have been buying against a seller. There is usually a relief rally. A changing of the guard and if fundamentals are right new highs follow.
Here not only do you have a seller discount but possibly a 30% divi discount as well!
On what planet are TGA and DRX comparable?
Indeed Scoooby, THS was an experience..... I am not going to fight fund selling shares, if they want to sell it has to be at lower price, so that I can buy in cheaper.
The 11:31 post was a shock in that I was unaware of the depth of PIC involvement. There's a big history there for those who care to examine it. Someone also added a reference to ESKOM (another disaster). The bottom line here is the exchequer is bust.
I therefore steer clear of TGA and confine investment to DRX.
Never stupid to bank profit Rylidan. Sounds like the three of us should put our hands up for the sell off this morning then lol.
Currently sitting near the middle of the days range so the jurys still out on the sp's next move.
This 5k block buyer should have a big chunk now hoping to see a TR1 on that soon
No banking any for me just yet still expecting the rise as I am seeing a pattern as mentioned before of higher lows
I also, perhaps stupidly, got spooked and banked half my profit at £3.22. EVERY time I do that the share start to continue its rise again. I should stop watching this BB. Still it's sitting in cash now just in case the sp does fall back a bit. However if it continues the rise up to £10 by this time next year (as expected), I won't complain either!
I share your sentiment Lucky.
I believe you were in THS as well. Likewise with Fidelity selling out of THs at that time when Rhodium prices were robust led to stagnation of THS SP and much frustration!
Lost a fair bit during that episode after that given the eventual decline of the PGM prices.
Wide market has been a bit off colour too.