... on your off-topic suggestion that Barclays was a better bet than TCG (which came across as a comparator & example rather than a thinly veiled plug as you so often see on discussions). Barclays was about 136-138 then. It’s now 156 & increased by 5% yesterday.
I watched that video after the rescue bid announcement - one that someone on here gave the link to. I thought “Oh my God, these people don’t know what they’re doing”. I felt it was like watching an episode of the Apprentice where the team makes a hash of the task but don’t realise.
“It has blamed factors including holidaymakers delaying travel due to Brexit, and the unusually hot summer in 2018 for some of its financial challenges”.
No mention of its massive debt pile. It’s like your mate telling you he needs to borrow money yet again because of yet another problem rather than because he simply spends more than he earns.
“However, it is also under pressure from changing trends, including a growth in online travel agents and people increasingly putting together their own trips“.
Exactly. If being an online travel agent solves the problem, guess what you should do. Why keep all those TC offices in towns around the country open? I get the impression that TC hasn’t learned and I’m not sure it has even now. There is a limited window for reacting to changing circumstances and TC may have missed it.
“TCG is burning through cash.......”
It seems to be even worse than I thought. I can’t help but think that it’s going to go under despite Fosun’s offer.
If I’d booked a holiday with them, I’d be worried because you won’t get your holiday if TC goes under and it takes time to get your money back. It won’t help if the tabloids run stories on that.
It’s not long ago at all when there was a target price of 12p on this and the SP dropped sharply. Yet if it was 12p today you could more than make a 100% profit. How times change.
They want even MORE money! But they don’t expect to use it! I’be heard that before. Reminds me of a weekend away with a spendthrift friend.
I walked past a TC office recently. Empty apart from the staff. I wonder what their salaries, the business rates & office rental cost are. Plus all the other costs of running the office.
They seem to be like government - their solution to being short of money is not to cut expenditure but instead to look for ways of raising new taxes. So they stay inefficient and never learn.
Surely there’s going to be significant job losses even if the deal goes through, and I’m now doubting that it will.
“Hedge funds pose risk to Cook rescue” by Dominic Walsh, 11 September 2019.
Thomas Cook’s £900 million rescue deal faces a possible challenge from hedge funds that hold credit insurance on the travel group.
According to Bloomberg, hedge funds including Sona Asset Management and XAIA Investment may vote against the rescue led by Fosun Tourism Group, of China, at a creditor meeting next week.
Credit insurance pays out in the event of default, but the hedge funds fear that the debt-for-equity swap element of the restructuring would leave their holdings with no debt to insure, preventing them from receiving a payout.
JTMacs has a habit of calling anyone who disagrees with him a “muppet”. It’s like watching a three year old stamp his feet every time someone expresses a different opinion - the temerity of it!
Has he declared the price at which he started buying shares or topping up? I get the impression that he’s in deep.
Heading: “Thomas Cook investors face being wiped out in rescue” by Dominic Walsh. Monday 9 September 2019.
Shareholders of Thomas Cook are likely to be told within days that they will be left with nothing from the impending £900 million rescue deal with China’s Fosun and its lenders.
Although the travel company’s board is pushing for its ordinary shareholders to be given an equity “stub” or “tip” to help smooth the deal, one well-placed City source said the odds of that happening were “almost zero”.
Thomas Cook, which was founded in 1841, is one of the world’s largest holiday businesses, with about 21,000 employees operating in 16 countries and carrying more than 22 million customers every year. Its mounting debt burden has left it susceptible to the vagaries of the weather and political and economic turmoil.
Wiping out its equity would spell the end of its stock market listing, although if shareholders were given a token equity stake it would be in a standalone airline business, with Fosun — its biggest shareholder with 18.1 per cent — effectively taking the tour operating and hotel business private.
European Union airline ownership rules prevent a Chinese business from acquiring control of an airline. As a result, the business is being split in two, with Fosun emerging with 75 per cent of the tour operating and hotel unit and 25 per cent of the airline, with its lenders holding the balances.
Reports over the weekend suggested Thomas Cook’s pension fund trustees were demanding a stake in the restructured company and funding guarantees as the price for agreeing to the recapitalisation.
Heading: “Thomas Cook flies into pensions row over Chinese rescue deal”. Liam Kelly. Sunday 8 September 2019.
Thomas Cook is at odds with the trustees of its pension scheme — a row that could derail a £900m rescue deal.
The airline and tour operator’s pension trustees have demanded better terms, including a stake in the restructured business, in exchange for backing the deal, Sky News reported.
The trustees also want guarantees about funding, and for its new Chinese owners to continue the £25m annual payment into the pension scheme.
Thomas Cook, led by chief executive Peter Fankhauser, is fighting for survival. Sluggish bookings due to Brexit and its £1.2bn net debt pile have spooked investors.
The 178-year-old travel giant proposed a rescue plan last month that would see its largest shareholder, Fosun, inject £450m in exchange for 75% of its tour operating arm and 25% of its airline. The Chinese investor is barred from controlling the carrier under EU rules.
Thomas Cook’s lenders and bondholders would control the rest, wiping out other shareholders. A board meeting will be held on Wednesday to determine how the deal would be structured, which could result in the cancellation of its stock market listing. The shares are down 84% this year and closed at 5.4p, giving the firm a value last week of just £83.6m. In May, it issued a profit warning and revealed a £1.5bn half-year loss after a £1.1bn write-off relating to its 2007 merger with My Travel.
Thomas Cook employs 21,000 people. More than 11m passengers booked to travel with it this summer.
As well as the support of the trustees, the company needs to convince the Civil Aviation Authority to renew its operator’s licence — which expires at the end of this month — for another year.
Thomas Cook declined to comment.
(End of article).
I must point out that Carillion wasn't in effect rescued - it went into compulsory liquidation, the most severe procedure in insolvency law. You say it went into administration but with respect it didn’t - the situation was too dire for that.
It was, incidentally, the largest ever trading liquidation in this country.
I couldn’t agree more, illbetabuck.
There was someone like you on the Carillion discussion. He countered optimistic comments and was accused of being a paid stooge. Unlike you, when the SP fell to about 20p, he did the most incredible U-turn, saying he thought the tide had turned and felt it was worth buying.
Shortly after, it went under.
People were saying, days before it went under, that the government would have have to rescue Carillion - remarkable, I thought. The way people delude themselves is truly a miracle. They are not trying to convince you or me - they are trying to convince themselves.
“I am off out to test drive my new MB drop head - such a thrill to drive - no credit - cash.
No bouncing for me - just gliding smoothly down the road displaying my wealth and success.
Harp on muppets”
OK, I agree. Your dad’s car IS bigger than my dad’s car.
I’ve noticed that those who think the SP will go up react quickly with ad hominems. The first time I commented myself, I received a few ad hominems. It’s all very childish. This should be somewhere to share opinions like adults.
“Don't tell the Ponzi coin followers about it, they'll have a fit...... ;-)”. LOL.
Talking about Ponzi schemes, I have just two words for you - “pension” and “state”. Rearrange them to see if you can break my coded message.
This thread, and so many others, answers the question “Why do people who are not invested contribute to the discussion?”
To educate themselves, especially about the madness of crowds, human psychology and how people will continue to delude themselves when the writing’s on the wall. The latter happens because, if they accept the situation for what it is, then they accept that they will never recover their money.
I followed the Carillion discussion board too. It was fascinating and educating. People moved from saying it’d recover, to that the government would have to bail Carillion out, to blaming the Directors. I said that on here before people started blaming TCG’s Directors - expect more of it in the future.
I feel for people who have lost money. They will learn from this and go on to make money on other shares as a result.