Member Info for CloudyMountain

Here we go again - we are up 40p. We’ve caught the ski lift up and may catch another one. From then on we’ll descend the slopes till we arrive back at the bottom of the nursery slopes, on +7p if we are lucky and -7p if we are not.

@pop31 “…And also, many investors love charts, even though they don't always give the right picture. And Thungela's chart potentially has just formed a head-and-shoulders trend, which is often interpreted as being a sign of a downward turn…”

The chart has been artificially warped by the massive dividend. The (right-hand side of the) head formed artificially on 22/9/22, all because TGA went ex-dividend on that day with a massive £3.00 dividend i.e. 16% of the then SP. A 16% fall in any share due to a dividend is going to artificially create the right-hand side of a head.

Put it another way, if there were no dividend, you would not have a classic head & shoulders.

We then had COP27 which tends to pull TGA down further.

I take your point but there’s other factors in play here.

(Continued…)

Environmental groups condemned the increased imports and said the UK had an opportunity to move away from pollutants. ‘’Instead of replacing Russian fossil fuels with more polluting coal, banging its head against the same wall and hoping for the headaches to go away, the government should invest in home insulation and renewables,” said Louis Wilson of the NGO Global Witness.

Analysts said some of the imports will become storage ahead of the arrival of cold winter weather.

Lou Roberts, research manager for the Coal Transition Team at E3G, said that the UK has bolstered its coal stocks in case of a “worst case scenario” of excess demand during a cold winter which would have usually been met by gas. “This coal will only be burnt if there isn’t enough wind or solar or gas supplies are running low [...] There might be one or two days during the winter that could require turning these coal power stations on but that might not happen. So we might end up with this coal sitting there and not being burned.”

Since the UK’s “dash for gas” in the 1990s, coal’s share of electricity generation has halved and there are now only three coal fired plants running. Tony Lodge, political and energy analyst at the Centre for Policy Studies said the UK’s reliance on gas made it vulnerable to shocks.

He said: “Having to ask 50 year old coal fired power stations to stay on for another two to three years in the hope the energy crisis will go away is a sign of a failed national energy policy.”

Lodge said that the government should have a more balanced energy mix that would make the UK less vulnerable to shocks.

The disruption in energy markets from the war in Ukraine has delayed the UK’s plan to end the use of coal power by 2024. In May, Kwasi Kwarteng, then business secretary asked National Grid executives to work with the owners of Britain’s three remaining coal fire power plants to ensure energy security for the Winter. Last month, Uniper SE, which owns the Ratcliffe-1 coal-fired power plant in Nottinghamshire announced it was going to keep the plant open to secure winter energy, despite plans to shutter it this year.

Headline:
UK doubles coal imports to head off winter energy crisis
Imports almost double as Ukraine war turns natural gas into a no-go zone.

Rising gas prices resulting from the war in Ukraine have forced the UK to nearly double its coal imports in the fight to keep the lights on through the Winter.

The increasing use of coal-generated power in the UK comes after years of the country shifting to cleaner electricity from gas-fired power plants and renewables, but is deemed vital as Russian president Vladimir Putin crimps gas supplies to Europe.

Figures from Kpler, a commodity analytics firm, show that last month more than 560,000 tonnes of coal came into British ports, compared to the 291,089 tonnes that arrived in October 2021, a 93 per cent increase.

In the first 10 months of this year, the UK imported more than 5.5 million tonnes of coal, already exceeding the 4.2 million tonnes throughout the whole of 2021.

Victor Katona, senior analyst at Kpler said increased demand for coal is because of the rising price of wholesale gas. “Absent the option of burning fuel oil - the most cost-efficient power generation option right now - coal - is very much the best option out there, albeit the most polluting one, too.

“With gas prices like these, relying on natural gas for power generation is a no-go zone for anyone who can switch between fuels.”

Prices for gas increased rapidly since the invasion of Ukraine.

The doubling of the October coal imports suggest the UK is accelerating purchases as winter draws nearer. Official data for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy for the April to June quarter showed the annual increase was only 44 per cent.

The extra coal that has been flowing to the UK is thermal coal which is burned to create steam used for electricity generation as opposed to coking coal, used for making iron or steel.

Most of the coal was arriving at the ports in Belfast and Immingham.

In its scramble for coal, the UK is importing from countries it has never traded with before. Mozambique had never sent coal to Britain before but was the second largest exporter of coal to the UK in September behind the United States.

(In two parts due to the character limit).

Continued…

Fun fact, the share chart for the last week has been like watching England play, only in reverse. If you see what I mean.

I’m a sucker for it regardless - I’m cheering Englamd on. I know it won’t last but I will enjoy it while there’s hope. It’s sobering that the “Thirty years of hurt” line in “Three Lions” is almost sixty now.

@Richt999

Thank you for that. It’s an interesting article.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11447127/amp/Explosion-hits-Russian-gas-pipeline-amid-suspicions-sabotage-linked-Putins-war-Ukraine.html

This should cause a rise in gas prices and therefore coal too.

Curiously, U.K. broadsheets seem not to be covering this story: It’s in the Mail and the Express and that’s about it.

… share price up 6.7% on Friday yet only 10 comments were posted. Actually, only 3 commments if you exclude all those about a different share (Peabody), the latter being very unusual for this board.

There’s a general lack of hysteria and far less ramping. It’s peaceful and more mature. Thanks everyone for that.

Happy Burn-An-Effigy Day. May your rockets stay dry and your Catherine wheels actually spin.

Me: “…who invariably have no idea what they are doing, hate anyone saying anything negative, and react to the latter with personal insults.”

You: “Share dealing aside , you're still a smug pri.ck.”

@sammy.18, it’s a triple in just eight words! Thank you. Are you passionate about proving me right?

@antlev, you’re welcome.

I laughed at the replies to my comment.

There is such an equivalent website. It’s LSE but on the not-so-popular shares. The popular ones attract the get rich quick crowd who invariably have no idea what they are doing, hate anyone saying anything negative, and react to the latter with personal insults (all the things I said in my previous comment). It is a breath of fresh air following such a discussion.

So, it’s the share, not the site.

“I can see your annoying everyone on this board too antlev.

Looks like people have worked you out doesn't it!!”

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Discussion boards are self-declarations. When people write something like “your annoying everyone”, they reveal a little bit about themselves, in this case twice over (in the spelling and in that they only want to hear good news). When they end a question with an exclamation mark rather than a question mark, they do the same.

Discussions for popular shares are also littered with people who can’t learn the basic rules of the English language yet somehow think they are financial gurus. One of my favourite recent comments was by poorinvestor who not only can’t even spell his own name but also said “I’m an expert in maths”. I’m going to become an expert in rocket science in 30 seconds. Here we go: I’m an expert in rocket science.

Such discussions are also littered with people whose response to anyone writing something negative about the share is to personally insult the person who said that.

This drives people away, the very people who provide balance. A number of people have stopped sharing their (negative) analysis. Since then, their predictions have come true.

It’s an Uncrossing Trade.

“In an era of heightened environmental awareness, South African coal miner Thungela Resources (TGA) has defied the odds to become a somewhat controversial success story, with its shares rocketing well over 10 times…”

It’s that “heightened environmental awareness” that has caused the 10-fold increase in the share price. I am so grateful to green campaigners.

It’s not “controversial” at all - it’s wonderful.

I was wondering how much people who bought in that early on did invest, on top of their “free” shares. People invest very different amounts.

I was concerned too when they fell from a little under £5 to £3 (it actually fell to about £2.70) in October 2021. But the fundamentals hadn’t changed so I held.

Poor investor makes it up as he goes along.

Notice how he says 3p or 30p when the SP closed at 2.765p on Friday and is down in the USA today. He ignores all that and gives two possibilities - up either a lot or a ludicrous amount (8.5% or nearly 1000%)! It’s what he does.

…rs

The final paragraph of that article is why the shares were so ridiculously undervalued, and are now just undervalued.

I smile at how people rail against global warming while investing in bitcoin, with its massive energy needs. They see no contradiction. Yet they take a moral stance on fossil fuels. It is thanks to them that TGA came into being, that we were able to buy at such a discount, that we were able to buy into a niche market, and that companies are dissuaded from opening new, rival mines. It’s absolutely wonderful. We profit from the world’s panic. Thank you, world leade

@poorinvester wrote:
“Wolf, I have been in business a long time And I explained to you a long time ago, I’m an expert in maths.” (Tuesday 13/9/22 at 2310)

This is a classic. He probably believes it, too. It’s hilarious. I have no doubt that his expertise in maths matches his expertise in, um, spelling, grammar and punctuation!

“Let me simply fly for you...”
LOL! Both condescension and low intellect in a mere five words.

“The house will not be sold for it’s future value, it will be sold for market value.”

What rubbish! It will always be sold at market value. This is one of many examples which show that poor invester really doesn’t have a clue. Not in the slightest. But he’s too challenged to realise it.

He can’t even spell his own name and can’t string a sentence together but he thinks he’s a maths expert, stock market sage and now a debt recovery expert!

This is from his fourth last comment, three days ago:

“What he fears is...
The upside equivalence of 4p shares will be worth 40p soon.
Cineworld Appeal Win, 40p would wipe the shorter out clean and forever.
Meme’s how does 40p a share sound as a starter, with sauté mushroom?
Shareholder’s deserve to see 40p.

(Diaper’s are available on offer at Lidl, some posters will need them...)”

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HaventgotaclueHarry thinks he’s gifted in financial predictions yet can’t learn the most fundamental rules of the English language such as how to make nouns plural. They teach that in primary school. Less bright than a primary school kid but he wants people to listen to his advice!

You mean Haventgotaclue Harry.