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I've decided to free lolz tomorrow morning...
Full rent paid....
Night all...
Waynexx,you maybe right there 11 trade today maybe news coming let's see my theory
The PFS came out earlier than expected in April rather than May. so does this mean a bid as early as May rather than June.
tks for the reply Lunch - spot on matey.
Cheers.
Damers.
I think you are right rcgl2.
My latest guess is................
ENSA & Carnegie Ridge - sale to BHP & Newcrest, with a bid landing on July 14th.
Green Rock / Cruz / Valle either sold or JV'd as a package, with update on the subject in the next 4 weeks...................
I don't understand why doing an IPO of ENSA would help the funding situation in any way? Solg is currently valued pretty much entirely on Cascabel with very little value attributed to anything else. How would a spun out ENSA have an easier time raising nearly $3bn capex than Solg currently would?
And what would be the benefit to us as shareholders to sell off part of the asset and presumably end up holding shares in another listed company? Why not just raise finance in Solg as it is today? How would it please the two major shareholders who want Cascabel for themselves? Wouldn't it be easier just to sell it to them or to let them earn into it by funding the development or something?
Also on a practical level how would the spun out entity operate? Who would run it and manage it? There's enough moaning on here about Solg management not being up to the job and key appointments taking a long time to fill. How would the split work between Solg and ENSA? It's not like it's a profitable operating division than can be spun out as a standalone business. ENSA is just a holding company through which Solg operates Cascabel. It would be easier to sell it in a private transaction than IPO wouldn't it?
If Solg wanted to spin out anything I'd have thought some of the less advanced licences in other subsidiaries that could just be floated as small early stage junior explorers?
Afternoon Lunch.
You have used the higher NPV figure of $4.5bn which gives you the -35% figure. If using the lower NPV expected figure of $4.1bn we get a cut of -29%.
This only adds weight to the Mining Journal article:
- Spot on with with the suggested issue date for PFS (+/- a few days)
- Spot on with reduced NPV (+/- 1%)
This adds substantial weight to the article.
Damers.
"The PEA assumed lower copper and gold prices than we have today, but at the time, analysts were concerned by a capex number of close to $3bn.
Some analysts expect the 2019 forecast of Alpala's net present value (between $4.1 billion to $4.5bn) to be cut by up to 30% - keeping initial capex within tight limits."
Crickey Lunch id have to get my head screwed on for that am afraid ,maybe others .can help there but on what you said those Values must surely have increased imho
Absolutely Pad!
Jerry,many thanks for heads up ,indeed we have a few on here
Here here Bubble. NM deserves our thanks - not criticism. And not forgetting the many mining industry awards he’s received.
I don’t frequent other boards Jerry, but it seems many have their own bashers - some say they’re paid to deramp! (Damn predictive text lol).
I don’t frequent other boards Jerry, but it seems many have their own bashers - some say they’re paid to dreamy!
Colonel yes after close ,the 11 trade earlier suggest (my theory), news lodged take a few days though ,drill updates ,funding news maybe ,or an offer lets hope its good news
Pad, you just defined old charlie drake over on ggp. What a stain on humanity he is.
Ok folks here me out , NM started solgold as a explorer taking up Solomon islands in with Ecuador obtained permits /funding and exploration licenses ,used his funds from another explorer he took to its maximum and sold on giving all shareholders as he promised there a huge return for their loyalty (proven track record ),indeed we have had some issues along the way here but rest assured NM for all the calling for him to resign and forcing him to a corner he has come out stronge committed and dam right honest with everyone including the Ecuadorian Government ,they have nothing but praise the way solgold are going about the exploration of thier land but what really pleases me is the fact that he will give the loyal shareholders value for money and hand it over to a reputable mining conglomerate to take it to production in a safe secure manner that benefits not just the government but the Ecuadorian people imho
BBG they don’t care about what’s posted it’s simply about distraction….
Keep on posting, Pad Bubble DBW, keep repeating the positive messages. All fine by me. GL all long term holders, we'll get our just rewards soon. Onwards and upwards!
I have no idea how the parrots can deramp or even respond given such a strong article.
Thanks Damers and Dreamboat
Once BHP and Newcrest take control, they are expected to buy out 50% of the royalty option awarded to Franco Nevada by former boss Nick Mather. They cannot acquire the remaining 50% under the terms of the royalty deal announced in September 2020.
The accord with Franco Nevada was derided at the time by the two majors as royalty deals involve surrendering a portion of future profits in exchange for development capital. Newcrest said it would have been better to have gone for an equity raise. The issue spilt into a period of infighting that was resolved when Mather stood down and Cuzzubbo took over.
For BHP, acquiring a much larger stake in SolGold makes sense. Despite talk of a mega-merger before too long, BHP is understood to be reluctant to buy at the top of the market and before its oil merger with Woodside is completed in the next few months. In the absence of immediate, big bang M&A action, Henry is likely to continue to seek out advanced exploration assets, and SolGold fits the bill. He views it as a relative rarity: there aren't many large-scale undeveloped copper assets up for grabs, from one side of the world to the other.
Henry knows he must diversify away from iron ore (about 60% of earnings) so he needs to get bigger in copper and nickel, and successfully add potash to the portfolio through the development of the Jansen project in Canada.
Ecuador has opened its doors to foreign miners in recent years in a bid to cut its reliance on oil and gas and leverage its position as a producer of metals critical for the energy transition. Gina Rinehart's Han**** Prospecting, Codelco, First Quantum, Southern Copper, Atico Mining Corp and Solaris are either on the ground or have acquired concessions, while Blackrock has emerged as a significant investor.
SolGold owes much to Mather, co-founder and driver of the project. He remains a non-executive director, a 3.96% shareholder and head of DGR Global, the ASX-listed project generator which speaks for more than 8% of SolGold's equity.
Mather has talked in the past about "not giving it away" when speaking speculatively about a potential bid from BHP and/or Newcrest.
We'll find out more precisely what he means soon enough.
Joint BHP-Newcrest bid for SolGold 'within months'
The smart money is on a joint bid for London-listed SolGold by BHP and Newcrest Mining, as early as June.
Both miners have acquired minority stakes in SolGold which controls the enormous Cascabel copper-gold concession in mining-friendly Ecuador.
Sources say BHP CEO Mike Henry has been persuaded to go with Newcrest because of the latter's expertise in block caving.
An alliance would assuage investors' fears of ‘execution risk.' Block caving issues have hampered progress at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia where Rio Tinto is undertaking a tricky and expensive expansion programme.
Problems at Oyu Tolgoi haven't been lost on Henry who is said to favour an ownership model similar to Escondida, the Chilean copper operation jointly controlled by BHP and Rio.
Said one analyst: "It was initially going to be one giant block cave, and that was proved to be too ambitious. The trouble with block caves is that unless you have a nice vertical ore body, a nice regular shape, you're going to have huge amounts of dilution, as it wanders up and down, left and right etc."
It's rumoured Henry and Newcrest boss Sandeep Biswas have recently held talks to cut a takeover deal. The two companies are expected to bid following the release in May of the long-delayed Alpala preliminary feasibility study.
The Alpala deposit is the main target at the Cascabel concession, located on the northern section of the heavily endowed Andean Copper Belt.
SolGold is one of the largest holders of mining concessions in Ecuador, but Cascabel is the most advanced. The Cascabel-Alpala property contains a resource of 2.6 billion tonnes at 0.53% copper equivalent. Annual metal production in the first 25 years was estimated in the 2019 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) at 207,000 tonnes of copper; 438,000oz of gold and 1.4Moz of silver in concentrate. The estimated mine life is 50 years.
The PEA assumed lower copper and gold prices than we have today, but at the time, analysts were concerned by a capex number of close to $3bn.
A scaled down PFS is expected from new SolGold CEO Darryl Cuzzubbo, a former BHP executive, appointed at the end of 2021.
Some analysts expect the 2019 forecast of Alpala's net present value (between $4.1 billion to $4.5bn) to be cut by up to 30% - keeping initial capex within tight limits.
Here you go Pad..............
The smart money is on a joint bid for London-listed Solgold by BHP and Newcrest Mining, as early as June.
Both miners have acquired minority stakes in SolGold which controls the enormous Cascabel copper-gold concession in mining-friendly Ecuador.
Sources say BHP CEO Mike Henry has been persuaded to go with Newcrest because of the latter's expertise in block caving.
An alliance would assuage investors' fears of ‘execution risk.' Block caving issues have hampered progress at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia where Rio Tinto is undertaking a tricky and expensive expansion programme.
Problems at Oyu Tolgoi haven't been lost on Henry who is said to favour an ownership model similar to Escondida, the Chilean copper operation jointly controlled by BHP and Rio.
Said one analyst: "It was initially going to be one giant block cave, and that was proved to be too ambitious. The trouble with block caves is that unless you have a nice vertical ore body, a nice regular shape, you're going to have huge amounts of dilution, as it wanders up and down, left and right etc."
It's rumoured Henry and Newcrest boss Sandeep Biswas have recently held talks to cut a takeover deal. The two companies are expected to bid following the release in May of the long-delayed Alpala preliminary feasibility study.
The Alpala deposit is the main target at the Cascabel concession, located on the northern section of the heavily endowed Andean Copper Belt.
SolGold is one of the largest holders of mining concessions in Ecuador, but Cascabel is the most advanced. The Cascabel-Alpala property contains a resource of 2.6 billion tonnes at 0.53% copper equivalent. Annual metal production in the first 25 years was estimated in the 2019 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) at 207,000 tonnes of copper; 438,000oz of gold and 1.4Moz of silver in concentrate. The estimated mine life is 50 years.
The PEA assumed lower copper and gold prices than we have today, but at the time, analysts were concerned by a capex number of close to $3bn.
A scaled down PFS is expected from new SolGold CEO Darryl Cuzzubbo, a former BHP executive, appointed at the end of 2021.
Some analysts expect the 2019 forecast of Alpala's net present value (between $4.1 billion to $4.5bn) to be cut by up to 30% - keeping initial capex within tight limits.“
Just a reminder for anyone who didn’t see it- Mining Journal article refers to sources predicting a joint bid as early as June by BHP and Newcreast. Does anyone still have the complete article?
https://www.mining-journal.com/london-to-a-brick/opinion/1428389/joint-bhp-newcrest-bid-for-solgold-‘within-months”