Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Lunchmoney
Why should anyone accept today’s artificial, manipulated and controlled price.
We have two major miners as shareholders that acquired shares at a higher value than today. And that was along time ago.
Thanks for your opinion but I’ll wait for the PFS before I place a value on the co. It will definitely be multiples of today’s price.
Red
“ I have it from the horses mouth that if a certain person resigns that would mean a bid is on the way...but that person is far from resigning and is absolutely clear that the strategy is to advance Alpala towards production while defining the scale of the best other projects and seeking partners for the 'small' projects...”
And a week ago
“ If they don't like the assets, how come in the words of my contact "BHP have 3/4 geologists in Ecuador doing nothing else except look at us..."?
You change with the wind I suspect depending on your position at any given time . The shame of it is that none of what you write can be taken seriously given that it’s all agenda driven
Quady...CGP don't have a cat in hells chance of raising the money they will owe when the DFS is available, let alone for their share of production...
They are a tinpot company where only the Alpala prospect and their stake in SOLG are keeping their share price from tanking...
They sit 40% below their 1 year high and only 10% above the low, but...
Most important...how in hell are they going to raise c$500 million with a MCap of £80 million and no profit track record...?
You remain in cloud cuckoo land...
Have you forgotten that they pretty much put up the 'For Sale' sign less than a year ago while slamming the SOLG offer...?
RK, interesting comment from your source, who you clearly believe. How does this square with the RNS (an official document) which stated quite categorically that the company had agreed with CGP to investigate other strategic options? And how is it compatible with the very obvious truth that BHP are not in this to end up with a minority stake?
addickt...they already have a 'strong candidate' as of 4 weeks ago...its just about dotting is and crossing ts...
Colonel..I'm afraid I think you're off beam in suggesting that SOLG are 'fishing for an offer'....
I have it from the horses mouth that if a certain person resigns that would mean a bid is on the way...but that person is far from resigning and is absolutely clear that the strategy is to advance Alpala towards production while defining the scale of the best other projects and seeking partners for the 'small' projects...
I have no reason to believe he is lying...
I had even out it to them that a JV was the best option and he turned that down...
Starter’s pistol BBG?
Hello LunchMoney,
Why would any of BHP's peers allows them to acquire Solgold for 60p...?
Thats the opening bid if anything...
Some good and dare I say it courteous discussion on this board today!
Jerry - I am inclined to go along with your cynicism that there isn't a new CEO being lined up, that we're waiting for PFS to be delivered and then this will go for far less than it should have done. If you were being even more cynical, you could argue that the Porvenir MRE (wasn't this at one point going to Q2 2021?) has been pushed back by design to allow for SOLG to be taken out based upon the Alpala valuation alone. I agree with Bozi that this would be a shocking result and an insult to PIs who have held on through thick and thin.
DWB - fully agree with your post @ 11.50 today. CGP want their payday and the fact that they are so content with the direction of the company and new management has to mean that this is where we are headed.
LunchMoney, they won't. They're not a charity. And you can forget the diverse book argument; it's a complete red herring.
Thank you DBW, also not looking for an argument, no need since I have filtered Bobo and Krusty, probably need to filter BBG as he is just mad.
I have listened to this before, but just listened to the last few minutes again, and see your point.
As CGP's strategy is to recycle money into new projects and take profit.
That was also Solgold's strategy up till 2015.
I just think Alpala has changed thinking.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Dt9r8Q7HI
Quady/ Bozi This is why CGP’s position doesn’t add up to me ….. just listen to the last 5 mins ….. does this in any way sound like a guy content with going to production?
“If we don’t get paid big money for making one of the world’s top copper discoveries. If we don’t get taken out by a major and get paid big dough for that, why do I want to reinvest that money looking for more copper ?
Because if we can’t get bought out of Cascabel.. why bother?”
This was only a couple of months ago, long after he said he was happy with the direction of the company. In fact he calls the new temporary CEO “incredible “ …. Not looking to quarrel it just doesn’t add up
DBW
A beautiful outcome.
Based on that scenario, solgolds SP in 5 years will be many many multiples of today’s current price.
Isn't it possible that everyone ends up being right, if Solg are planning a JV with, let's say, BHP in order to take Alpala to production? Solg have first refusal on CGP's ENSA shares, maybe the agreement they have come to is that they won't stand in the way of BHP acquiring CGP's 15% of ENSA as part of the overall JV agreement. CGP get their long awaited exit and payday. BHP takes another 60% of ENSA shares off Solg's hands for a juicy sum and then then become 75/25 JV partners in ENSA. BHP does all the legwork and financing is sorted, and they get 75% of a 55 year mine supplying their future facing metals. Solg rides along as 25% JV partner, so still technically fulfilling their aim of becoming a producer while in reality not actually having to build or finance the mine themselves. Rinse and repeat for the next mine at Porv or Rio or whichever.
Why don't BHP mind about JV'ing the 10 low priority targets? Because they already have more than enough on their plate through all of Solg's other priority targets. As mentioned Alpala should be a 55 year mine. Porv and Rio and the rest have potential to be decent mines. How much exposure to one country does BHP realistically need? They want to run a tight ship, they are already the world's largest miner, maybe having a stake (through Solg) in a load of low priority targets that are well over a decade away from ever becoming a mine just doesn't add any value to them. So they are happy to allow Solg to offload them and focus on the priority licences instead?
Agreed Jerry, I don't believe everything has gone the way they wanted, but I don't believe they have lied.
Quady, I guess the main difference between you and I is that you believe the management and I dont.
Bozi, I agree that it would probably represent an appalling act of mismanagement over the past 2-3 years. But an asset is worth what someone is willing to pay for it, nothing more nothing less. At the moment thats about 27p plus say 40% bid premium. Maybe a well drafted PFS could get us higher, plus the 40%. But you have to ask why oh why are they doing pretty much nothing in all these wonderful Alpala lookalikes they say they have. Its not cos they dont have the money. Its not cos of Covid (from what we hear). Are they just lazy?
I just think since the last AGM they know they are toast.
Jerry we haven't done Sod all, we are just not getting updates all the time.
Drilling still going on at Alpala/Tandy and of course Porvenir.
Plus effort going into 10 sites ( 20 concessions ) for JV's.
Working towards the revised PFS.
Also working on the CFP.
Plus we get a quicker DFS, because of the way the PFS is being prepared.
No deal is being done, because we can defend, so I believe if someone wants to buy Solgold, then the other stakeholders will stop it along with Solgold, as it's not in their interests. ( part of the diverse book argument, which I know you don't get )
Everybody wants a stake, why sell it. NCM have already stated that their stake is not up for sell, in fact they want to acquire a larger stake.
All the best.
You are of course correct Bozi. I have always viewed that if CGP were to sell their stake, then that would make me reassess my thinking, depending who they sold it too and for how much.
When they turned down Solgold's offer from Nick Mather, I thought this is because not only do they want more, but it is because they believe it's worth more.
My question is, at the time CGP were vulnerable to a take out bid by NCM or BHP. as it would have given them a 15% stake in ENSA, and perhaps more importantly an extra 7.6% of Solgold as a whole. It never happened.
To my mind no one has supplied a decent answer to why it didn't happen ( including myself )
Hence part of my reasoning as why no bid is imminent.
CGP and Solgold seem to be at ease with each other, but in truth CGP could attract a bid, if anyone wanted to buy Solgold.
So with no bid for CGP, you have to ask yourself is a bid imminent. ( I say no, as we have to see changes in the book as it's too diverse to attract a bid that someone want's to pitch ).
My last thought is Solgold wanted to dilute CGP to 0.5% NSR and acquire them on the cheap, we no longer hear this, and maybe CGP are looking at the coming PFS and reduced cost and quicker production and saying if we can monetise our 15% of ENSA, then this is affordable for us and in the long term interests of CGP.
Just my thoughts.
All the best.
Jerry - it would be a horrendous result in my book but i have to say that it is not out of the question.
In fact, a similar result was my first reaction to the Reuters article released breaking the news of Nick Mather stepping down. It will be in my posting history.
It would be a huge opportunity squandered but it will provide some folks with the wealth they want or need and i congratulate them for that.
Plus, I'm hoping there's another that can step into the breach that would be left by SOLG in terms of blue sky potential.
Quady, I'm not convinced that CGP are in the slightest bit interested in SOLG financing 100% of Cascabel and loading any repayment fully onto proeuction revenues.
That locks them in for another decade.
I believe they want an exit from the project, at fair value or a premium.
How will SOLG engineer that for them, if we are to assume SOLG are onside?
Whilst i have fought your corner in terms of the company's stated strategy in the face of fanciful deal rumours, we have to consider that a significant pivot coinciding with the new CEO may be a possibility in the near future.
Not usually one for strange conspiracy theories but in Solgolds case I will make an exception. So how about, there isnt a new ceo, never was, never will be. Just jawboning with usual rubbish platitudes to get to PFS. After that there will be an agreed deal with BHP at about 50p. Money talks and that trumps any nonsense about a diverse book.
At least it would explain why Solgold have done absolutely sod all this year - at our expense.
Point taken DBW.
But, regardless of SOLGs previous stated aims, which make be subject to change pending the outcome of their strategic review, can CGP be monetised as a standalone?
History to date has suggested the answer is no. And therein lies their motive for jumping back into bed. They need us, we would quite like them.
But doesn't that make the last 6 months all the more puzzling? Wouldn't you expect a big PR and marketing drive by both companies to attract finance, investor interest, etc?
Maybe that is on the itinery from Sept onwards...
Good morning DBW, maybe CGP monetise by bringing Alpala to production.
I seem to remember a discussion that CGP could not use their 15% of ENSA to borrow against without Solgold's permission.
Solgold said they needed their permission, CGP said they didn't.
Maybe this has been cleared up and CGP and Solgold have agreed that they will fund Alpala on a 100% basis of ENSA, and thus making fundraising cheaper and easier.
To me that would be a way forward.
All supposition of course.
I should add, in my opinion, the board was desperate to buy time in order to add value to the business and they intend to achieve that by means of jvs and a PFS, which hopefully will show just how valuable Alpala really is. Why BHP would agree to that is a mystery. Perhaps it's simply a case of them wanting any uncertainty removed and they are prepared to pay more in order to do so?