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Inclined to agree. Lasso wants a mining industry for sound capitalist reasons. He won’t be blocking anything by presidential decree. He might even be calculating his next civvy street career move too in the event he ain’t re-elected. And the Chinese seeking influence will likely fund serious candidates in Ecuadorian politics like big business would down our way. They clearly want chunks of the world in their sphere of influence so lending money for investment and supporting ‘sound’ politicians will be their game plan. If the pendulum is swinging left, I don’t see it as necessarily bearing down on our ventures. Understandable flap in the share price and a buying opportunity for the brave.
While I think Madpunters optimism that Lasso could survive in the medium or long term (highly unlikely) is highly unlikely I am of the opinion that the negativity from the usual suspects is also overblown
From what I have read the reasons for Lassos demise centre on crime, cost of living and corruption . I have seen very little , indeed nothing , to suggest that existing mining projects are in any danger . Certainly the Chinese with their investments and trade deal have not been deterred....and they will obviously be following developments closer than most.
Is it really likely that even a left of centre incoming government will choose to alienate the Chinese, disuade investors and move against probably the most ESG sensitive project in the country ? No chance imo
The Chinese , and multi nationals, are thinking in terms of decades. They know there will be governments of all persuasions during that period; some more business friendly than others . They will take the view of the possibility of nationalisation of industries such as mining in their calculations - just as private investors should ...(.sometimes I wonder if some of our solg investors posting have done any research into the country they’re involved with)
Anyhow, the point is the Chinese are still there in Ecuador ; Indians are still in the wider region all looking for long term copper supply for the smelters they’re constructing on a large scale . The Ec/China trade deal was still done .....a week ago ! ; corporate deals are being done . And I doubt any discussions on solg will be abandoned just because of some political turbulence which every sensible person should regard as an inevitability in S America .
The worst case scenario imo is a delay in our progress toward a sale
If there was ever proof that greed never ends well it's here today.
I bet Mather wishes he'd sold it years ago, he could be two or three deals down the road now.
A few on here will be secretly thinking the same but will never admit it.
Madpunter - you’re in Cloud cuckoo land
Prepare for months ( if not years) of nothing happening
Z
I find it hard to believe that Lasso - wallowing in the polls and unlikely to win the election - is going to double down on one of the main things the opposition party is vehemently against (mining).
As I said at the time I had 3 trances of 10k at 24p 16.2p and 14.2p and sold the lot at a smidge above 22p and did okay. Just wondering if I should try the same tactics again starting at 16p tomorrow reason being buy when things don't look great ?
And pigs might fly...
Virtually nothing has been happening with SOLG for quite some time. Plus we know that Bob and his baseball bat is trying to sell SOLG. We also know that the Chinese have invested in SOLG recently and have completed a trade deal with the Ecuadorian Government. Furthermore, the Ecuadorian Government has leaked information suggesting the development of Cascabel. Therefore, it's a fair assumption that the Chinese, SOLG and Lasso could be thrashing out a deal. If a deal is close, then Lasso could take advantage of this by calling an early election. When campaigning Lasso could then highlight the thousands of jobs from exploration, construction and from monies spent by those workers. Lasso could also highlight the investment into the country, plus the environmental work, healthcare and education carried out by SOLG in the local community. Plans to continue this work by the Chinese could also be highlighted. After COVID-19 and the subsequent economic downturn, this could help Lasso gain another term, and the benefits over the next four years could even be a winner for the subsequent election.
I see lots of people trying to rationalize, but I'm not sure a rational reaction to an unprecedented political event is to claim it was already costed in?! Before last week, I hadn't read a single article proposing that Lasso would dissolve parliament. So unless people trading this share had a better insight than his own ministers (on record expressing their surprise at his actions), this can't have been 'baked in'(sic).
Strange behavior, but whatever keeps fort/red/bubble happy and out of trouble, I guess...
Right now buddy, we are positively trying to spot a light at the end of the tunnel, the tunnel is getting longer, we are long and running a loss but we are not selling so we look to rationalize what is going on. No roses involved.
I'm trying to understand the relentless attempts at positive 'spin'.
It's not balance, because they do it even when the general mood of the BB matches their own optimism.
It's not attempting leverage, because even the stupidest poster knows they can't move the needle from a message board on the internet
They're not paid rampers (or if they are, they are God awful at it)
They are either underwater or have a very low historic average, in which case they've missed massive profit making opportunities.
So are they just bored? Do they just love to be contrary? Is fort stupid, misguided or sinister? Genuinely wouldn't want to call it. Anyone got any insight?
some posters here have their head buried so deep… they simply refuse to see… they will continue to claim that despite the ****e it all smells of roses.. and a few will try to reason to themselves it could even be a positive development
Colonel Drake - when are you going to smell the coffee?
The bottom line here is that the current political disquiet will cost us months, probably years of delays moving Casacabel forward. This is best case.
Worst case: The “Conaie “ will disrupt future mining for years to come, chinese presence or not!
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/interviews/its-worth-betting-on-ecuador-mining-despite-the-uncertainty-and-risks
This link is before Lasso threw all his toys out of his pram yesterday.
We’re now stuffed for an indeterminate length of time before we even get our mining approvals never mind starting construction.
I’m guessing 90 days of turbulence before a new coalition party who then governs until 2025 and then a leftist environmentalist party for a further 4 years. Maybe, just maybe the new installed government (post 2025) will allow existing miners to continue to develop.
“If Solg was a lager it would possibly be the worst lager in the world”.
Z
Ecuador and Lasso issues have been going on for over 6months now. For the market to suddenly wake up to it is a hilarious.
In 90 days time post elections, it's not going to be any more stable than it was before but you might have someone else in power that suits certain US or China policies lol!
In 1 years time it not going to be any more stable than it is now. In 3 years time exactly the same. In fact, it's just going to repeat what's been going on for the last two decades.
So why of why is SOLG having a 10% down day?
As I said, it's already baked in into the sub 20p price just as it was baked into the 42p price post Porvenir hole 1 news. Or 40p levels post PFS. Stability certainly wasn't baked in lol!
Nope
Mog ,I did say this before and got slated for it ,I can see it and a few others could it's just a matter of time which imho is very close hence we need news asap solgold
China has proven itself to be perfectly content to invest in unstable countries - you've only got to look at some of the basket cases in Africa for proof. They are the personification of long term investors and are working to a global strategic plan which puts us in the West to shame. I very much doubt they'll be put-off by the events of the past 24 hours.
Could be worth selling now and buying back in at 5p at this rate guys 🤷♂️
Mog,they gonna get this on the cheap imho
If you look at Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, Chile and so on... all these countries seem to flip between far right to far left and corruption/volatility is central to their governments.... sad but true. Yet look at all the super major mining companies involved with these countries. It's just par for the course. These countries need the international miners and vice versa. That's how it has been for decades and decades.
To suggest that the likes of China or some super majors will not be interested in Ecuador because of the political uncertainty is naive at best. It's baked in. All super majors are well used to dealing with these South American countries. And let's face it... they don't have a choice. Mining in and around Russia looks a no-go area now. Metals are high demand and shortages loom around the corner. Where are the majors going to go to get their copper? Where are China going?
So I don't buy the sudden negative spin. It's already baked in. If we were mining in Australia we'd be £3bln market cap wouldn't we. Instead we are scrapping £500m on a good day. Why? Because we have an asset in Ecuador and the market has already discounted the price because of it.
Finally, it's well known that Alpala will be a 5 decade long project for whoever takes it on. In that time, it's likely you'll see at least 10 to 12 presidents or 10 to 12 major political changes.
Mirador has been producing through several changes of political powers and all seems fine there. Chinese heavily involved there to so well aware of the risk. Not to mention the historic FTA signed recently.
Will recent events affect the SR process?? Possibly ... but that might be for the better as interested parties might just decide to get this tied up before new gov comes into power. Possession 9 tenths of the law etc etc.
Plenty sniffing around Ecuador so no wonder it's seeing certain entities trying to secure powerful controls over the country and that includes the US and Canada.
Have a read of the below
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/as-lasso-flails-ottawa-pushes-for-more-canadian-mining-in-ecuador
"I'm sure you guys can work out where the copper will come from"
My guess is they will mine it. Am I right? Eventually some metal from one of our concessions might get to them, but I think the line is a bit more wiggly than "article highlights need for copper, state buys out explorer with rights in Ecuador"
Https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/china-new-copper-smelting-capacity
This bit is great
“[But] the main question will definitely be how Chinese smelters will secure the raw materials to ‘feed their new mouths’,” he added. “There are not many new mines in the pipeline.”
I'm sure you guys can work out where the copper will come from
Need to put some news out imho
Sorry one last post. I'm also in stm. Also exploration company in equador.
They're up 3.5% today. So it's not all equador companies, just the ones run by mather. Goodbye
Bbg, fdyjn, padmaster.
Just picked up my infesters bonus, and Blackrock reckon I'm the best stooge they've ever had.
Goodbye, and dream on