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Pleb
Fair enough Tesla, nothing wrong with being a fan of electrification but it’s becoming clear you’re the Betamax not the VHS
EVs are deeply unpopular in Europe because
Manufacturers cannot compete with China. The EU is now reassessing the phasing out of ICEs
In other words the people don’t want them and the people are speaking up. They’ll soon be consigned to being the niche lifestyle product they always should have been
And that’s just CASCABEL mine.
3 weeks left for the Technical report deadline, next few weeks will be very interesting.
Gl all
According to the first slide in the March presentation to PDAC we have 31.3 million ounces...
Thats $68 BILLION dollars
https://wp-solgold-2023.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com/media/2024/03/March-2024-SolGold-Presentation.pdf
Speaking of the book (and actually the book not the register) the share washer is back today though he has fewer bids and asks than previously
Oh dear, I think you have just invoked "The Diverse Book " argument.
The companies interested in Cascabel are multi billion dollar companies. There won't be a JV, they will just buy SOLG lock stock and barrel, in my opinion.
Quady - a couple of comments on your recent post:
(i) "I do believe we can obtain nearly all if not all funding based on a percentage of the NPV of Cascabel."
The problem with that statement is that the 'Capex-light' PFS has a lower NPV - $3.2bn after tax - than one which reflected the full resource.
What % are you expecting is reasonable - $1.5bn pre-prod Capex is already c50% of total NPV?
(ii) "We only require 1.55 billion to become revenue earning"
That is to first production.
Remember this is phased approach, capital-light. There is a two year ramp-up period before block cave hits 12Mtpa.
Hence unlikely to be break even initially. $2.3bn of free cashflow in first 5 years, $4.9bn in the following 5 years.
Payback period of 4 years AFTER first production.
JV seems a slow and relatively expensive route...
... in my view we want some interested majors to bid based on the whole asset value. Not the measly chunk that SOLG can finance/develop, even on a JV basis.
SM, exactly. Why would a major need/want us to be part of a jv? They don't need us and why would their shareholders want us to benefit from their investment and risk when they don't have to?
Quady, do you really think that the cash-strapped government of Ecuador IS in a position to be the guarantor of a $1.5bn loan to build a mine? Is there a precedent for this type of agreement?
No one is going to agree to a JV with us where we are the majority partner. Not in a million years.
Q, that's exactly the problem; I have 'imagined' a jv and it doesn't look pretty.
SharketMare, I do believe we can obtain nearly all if not all funding based on a percentage of the NPV of Cascabel.
Remember we don't need 3.2 billion to be revenue earning.
We only require 1.55 billion to become revenue earning and even that can be staged, and that's with maybe the Government acting as our guarantor.
Imagine if we had a JV, that would make things even easier
BBG... Bob and Mather need cash. That's there end game. They won't wait another 10 years+... makes no sense at all.
But that doesn't mean that life cant go on with SOLG and the regionals.
We could have 4 or 5 Alpala size resources in our folio just waiting to be discovered/drilled.
Bob and Irwin et all want their cash out... they want their pay day.
This all feels quite pie in the sky, BBG.
How can we credibly 'create' $3.2bn of non-dilutive funding? And then get a placing away at 6x current SP? This is batsh*t even by your wild standards.
We don't need to sell ENSA.
We just need to create some form of non dilutive funding for ENSA that demonstrates we are going to develop it ourselves. Its clear we can achieve this through offtakes, NSR and debt financing, and all from one source being Jiangxi.
Once this has been announced, the SP will fly and you can give the Chinese another 5% in Solgold at 45p a share which will keep the lights on at HQ for several more years whilst we sure up the regional portfolio and define a plan for Porvenir.
Everyone is missing something.
No deal has been done.
Somehow we are going to get funding.
You know that thing the three stooges said was impossible.
If a sale was in the offing, then we would have had a RNS by now.
It's a pi weakness 'watching share prices' on a minute by minute basis. Most II's wll monitor etc but they view things in months if not years and not minutes when it comes to investing. The trading firms do the sub second stuff and leave it up to algo's and bots.
Based on my numbers on volume sold/bought etc since the large 75m block got rinsed a couple of weeks ago, if there was any overhang or some loose stock, I think today will be the day (poss tomorrow) when it's cleared. Then you have a market whereby there is not easy stock to get hold off and natural forces come into play. The mm's know when things are drying up so they manage it well and you'll see a sudden move soon (IMHO) whereby the decide it's time to move into the 9's. First target will be circa 10.5p levels. 11.25p obvious test as 100% level from recent 5.67p low.
The resistance at present or stalemate on the sp (virtually unchanged over last 3 days) suggests effective control of pricing but that control disappears when stock dries up.
Fort, which rules are they?
I'd love for this to play out a few more years in order to receive maximum bang (200p +) but I doubt any major would allow us to remain in such a dominating position.
Last weeks commitment to fund 3,2B spells a deal has been done so this will be announced obviously soon.
SP is set to fly
The SR may well reveal a plan to do a spin off and park some regionals and Porvenir within that shell... then they are free to sell off ENSA without breaking the LSE listing rules for cherry picking prime assets etc.
At moment, they can't sell ENSA outright because it breaks those rules. Instead, it has to be an offer for the whole business (shares in issue).
The Valuestone guy was brought onto the board for a reason or as part of agreed terms on a deal of some kind. That might be asset sale.. it might be funding... it might be JV stuff. But in summary... you don't stick someone like Mr Lui on you board unless you plan to give the chinese something. It makes no sense at all especially based the 6% holding. Giving the chinese a fly on the wall position suggests to some degree that negotiations are already pretty much done.
All IMHO of course.
Volatility can be a b i t c h
BBG, I think Porvenir will go to the Chinese because they are already involved.
Hence, it will either be option 1, or a full sale to the Chinese as per Warren's earlier comments.
I just want it done and dusted. I don't think that my patience can extend to another year of no meaningful outcome and the SP plunging even further.
Roaring back now!!. Feeling much better!!
feeling like a bit of a pr--ck now
Yes, sorry about that. Apologies
This will close in the mid 8's today comfortably as it rerates ever so stealthfuly