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Good post Bozi
Sire - he knows full well what fair value is, but IMO he's not as bothered as the rest of us about reaching it.
He'll profess to holding plenty of SOLG shares, and post merger he certainly will. The difference is, he'll be happier to take a smaller profit as long as it means quickly compounding the premium he's receiving on his CGP stock.
My evidence of this is his slightly disparaging comment on Twitter yesterday towards DC when someone put it to him that a comparable value of Cascabel on known resource value is 78p/Solg share. Warren made it quite clear that price point was out of reach.
This is another reason why I wanted to float the spin out in more detail yesterday. I'm grateful for all opinions shared on that.
On a different topic and not in direct response to you Sire, my view generally is that those who lose out the most here (relatively) will be the folks who averaged up on SOLG between 2017-2020 as the NCM and BHP stakes became part of the story.
Those folks will now find it difficult psychologically to average back down given the less positive sentiment of recent months, and whilst I am not giving advice, adding a small parcel or two down here is certainly one option to those who were buying steadily in the 30s and 40s, particularly if bullish about the strategic review providing value creating options.
I contribute to this board because I do have experience that I think others could find useful in terms of them collecting information and opinion. I've no desire to tell anyone what to do. We're all here to bounce opinions off each other and maximise our return from this stock. That's all really.
so he keeps banging on about fair value, but it's not clear what fair value actually is?
DBW - how can you IPO after a takeover? Why would another company buy SOLG to then push it back onto a stock market?
Your post causes much confusion. I
I'm starting to doubt whether what i am suggesting is actually understood.
18:10 - of course there's cost to the company but it's not as significant as you're alluding to.
It most certainly is a free roll of the dice to us as investors. We'd be given shares in NewCo pro rata for our SOLG and would then all have the choice to fund NewCo further with no obligation to participate.
As I've said, SolGold would still be sold and probably early on in the process so no need to replenish the BoD. A smaller BoD would be appointed for NewCo. That could hsve incljded folks like Ingo but he now appears to be back in position. But you'd ideally appoint a CEO, FD, a couple of NEDs and build out from there as NewCo is brought to market. It does not happen overnight but it's not insurmountable by any means, and you know full well.
Not all IPOs cost £14m and take 18 months. I'd like to suggest it was particulsrly complex or not done cost efficiently. Take PwCs costs calculator for example - https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/deals/library/cost-of-an-ipo.html - they say 7% of deals between $25-99m. So for a NewCo valued at £20m and raising another £20m in cash you're looking at 7% of £40m. Call it 10% all in - £4m.
OK Red, here goes:
17:30
"And even in the UK: Assets can be transferred between two separate limited companies but it should be noted that Capital Gains Tax (CGT) will be payable by the recipient company if the assets are transferred free of charge or below the fair market price."
The key word here is separate. With my proposed SOLG spin off, SolGold isn't separate from NewCo, a holdings company under the SolGold group. Also, as i mentioned earlier, there is no transfer - just a change in company structure that brings the 4 subsidiaries under a new limited company that is then distributed via corporate action.
18:06
You are being awkward. You have done nothing all day but refute every point i have made, despite others on the board acknowledging the validity and viability of them. Are you going to say they aren't qualified to comment too?
You're crowing about tax when the worst case liability would be nominal relative to the growth prospects of NewCo, particularly if IPO'd in the £20-30m range. I'm still to review the acfual position and will come back to you over the weekend on that.
I hsve summarised your key points. To repeat, I'm saying:
1. You're relying on a competitive bidding war type scenario to extract the top of your range from a full sale of SOLG, frantically chucking Noront up as the case we must all cling to, taking no notice of the clear manouevre from BHP to bid Wyloo up.
2. You have refused to acknowledge any of the benefits of the spin off on account that it either doesn't suit your own affairs or is a 'gamble' for SOLGs major holders, etc etc.
I have provided thorough comme tary that dispels both points. I have not "shrugged my shoulders".
The decks have probably been cleared to facilitate a takeover but that doesn't mean it's the correct action. I'm also not saying what i thi k will happen. I'm asking SOLG and it's investors to strongly explore a spin-off as prescribed.
It likely won't happen, we'll sell for 40-60p and then I and others who favour a spin-off will watch aghast while the buyer uncovers a mega tier1 on our regional ground.
There's a few of us that don't want to miss out on this potential upside as there's a rapidly declining number of under-explored countries left and Ecuador is one.
Just a bit of fun...chill out....lol.
Scotland?
At last... was beginning to worry TSX rules and regs approvals were going to drift on.
So AGM very much as you were last year apart from we have CGP 6.3% (reduced after share issue on Dec 9th) and Chinese holding of 6.3% You'd think that extra 12.6% would see them through. I imagine Maxit et al know exactly what they need vote wise.
Copper, remind me, which group is Ireland in?
covgaz, sometimes you can only play as well as the opposition allow and USA were far more energetic and dealt with majority of tricky situations brilliantly. A dull performance agreed, but credit goes to USA who hustled and bustled ENG into doing very little. I'd rather see that performance in the second group game than in last 16 or quarters! Get it out of the system.
Well.......the Guinness is flowing here tonight!
Wonder why? The empire no more!
So there we go , the good news is the Taffs are just about out , the bad news is England are so ****e there is no way can they win this . How could they possibly beat Brazil on that showing?
As expected, England perform in spasms , not when expected.
Cornerstone special meeting January 9th..
Latest from Irwin
“Read the press releases and you will know what is going on. All the steps are pretty clear what SolGold is working towards. Gone are the fantasies of building a firm bigger than BHP.”
England so negative , like watching the paint dry. The worst game so far in this tournament.
Well he doesn't owe anybody anything, he's just a guy tweeting about the situation like you and me. I would suggest he has been generous and accurate in his (legally) limited commentary, offered take-it-or-leave-it.
irwin distancibmng himself from the 78p forecast.
"Nice side step ;) ok, let me rephrase if it helps… would you be surprised / disappointed if Solgold stepped down from their 78p+ indication of fair value expectations (recent presentations)? Thanks
irwin
"You mean the prognostications that were made by people who are no longer with the company right?"
RK …. Totally agree this is 100% T/O any IPO, if it happens, will be after the event
I've countered your case.
We'll never agree.
It would have been a good idea a year or two ago and indeed I suggested to Ingo that they should IPO Porvenir...
But in the current fraught cis=rcumstances and people's desperate want for monetisation it would take far too long and the SP woould fall further during the process.
Look how long its already taken to try and put the merger to bed...7 weeks and counting...and still nothing announced
I didn't say shareholders were taking a gamble. I said nobody from BHP down to me wants unlisted shares.
Please detail your current relevant experience. And show me where I don't understand current corporate law and corporate finance.
Meanwhile, here is the source you asked for under the heading "Taxes"
https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/newsletters/2022/january/17/dentons-global-mining-guide/dentons-global-mining-guide-2022/ecuador
Its not a "free roll of the dice"
We have an Interim CEO and CFO. We have half a Board. We have no Director of Corporate Finance.
Have you any idea how much it costs in time and money to do what you propose.
I prepared an IPO and it cost us £14 miliion and took a total of 18 months.
And its not 'free' when the portfolio you are talking about is conservatively valued at $150m by the Company Brokers.
Nor is it free if you IPO at a value of "£20-30m" and your Ecuadorian taxes are £29 million...
That’s a fair point Bozi considering I only assign a nominal value to the regionals… the difference would be negligible.
You could easily argue that investing in exploration companies is essentially all about those ifs… and maybe whens…. and you would be right. But I didn’t invest in this one until after the Cascabel discovery… and I just want an exit due to investor fatigue and disappointment.
For what it’s worth, I’d love Reds multiple players bid scenario to play out… we will all make great money, I just don’t believe.
The failure to deliver the PFS and Porv PEA stinks to them simply not stacking up as hoped to me, so they have been buried.
Red - I do have experience. Relevant current experience. You have historic experience as we've all been reminded for the hundredth time.
As I've said two or three times this afternoon, there is no transfer between limited companies. A demerger will be achievable by adjusting the SolGold corporate structure.
I'll ask you again. Please can you show me some Ecuadorian legislation to substantiate your statements? I also implore you once again to review the Atlantic Lithium transaction.
Besides, why are you getting so hung up about tax. Are you endorsing not taking a value accretive path because there may be a possible tax liability. How ridiculous.
Your ISA issue is admittedly more of a sticking point for you personally.
Shareholders aren't taking a gamble on an unlisted stock. They're early investors in a company that would be brought to market with a respectable porphyry discovery.
Look Red, we won't agree, but thanks for the discussion.
I'm sorry Bozi, but thats just your opinion.
I have put up facts and practicalities and you just think I'm being awkward.
Why don't you summarise my key points and show me where I'm wrong?
You can't just shrug your shoulders when you've been so adamant on a hypothetical situation.
Yes me saying there will be a takeover bid(s) is an opinion but its supported by all the key players who are actually in the know.
Why do you think the decks have been completely cleared...?
How does your idea fit with the decision to suspend everything except the Cascabel DFS (timed for December 2023)...?