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If you want a contrarian investment, this is the one...
Industrial Metals up 3%...
Anto up 2%
BHP up 3%
SOLG flat...
At the moment...
Bubble - Redknight posted some information here yesterday afternoon which he had lifted from the SOLG twitter group confirming some significant holding updates.
That might shed a bit of light.
I'm fairly sure that's not the plan, add- don't be dramatic. It doesn't suit you :)
I'm absolutely dogmatic. This won't sell before AGM '23, in my opinion.. today is another day to support that. Again, I'm not trying to change your mind. Just provide a bit of balance :)
All those big trades and we are virtually flat beggars the question what's happening here
Red we get £2.26/share I'll throw the biggest party ever seen lol!!:):). And invite nm
Oh, don't worry SH, I'm not remotely nervous. But thank you for your concern...I'm touched.
Btw, you accuse others of being dogmatic, I'd suggest a quick look in the mirror. You've singularly failed to explain your position and appear to be wilfully ignoring what's actually going on.
Keep up the good work.
So, no change then copper? The SR is all a waste of time and the master plan is to deliver us, on our knees, to BHP? Sounds a great idea.
Add - I'm not asking you to accept anything. What an odd idea. You shouldn't change your mind based on anything you read on a message board. I'll say the same thing to you as the other slightly nervous posters on here: have faith in your ideas and your investment logic. Just don't project opinions about a sale in the next few days/weeks/months as fact.
BHP are interested in copper, and Ecuador. That's why they've started a regional exploration subsidiary there. Logic there is that they don't need to bid soon. :)
CGP owns 9 prospects adjacent to Cascabel through ENAMI....
For Cascabel valuation purposes we should be using a NPV of $5.2bn not $2.9bn because a bidder acquires the Gross value of the project...
So...up to 226p/share...
How can we go into 2023 AGM? A sale is imminent
.........hoorah........hoorah..........hoorah!
;-)
In fact, it's been imminent for the last three years or so.
From memory Brooke Macdonald gave a price of $0.06 per pound in the ground for Copper + Gold (CU), which based on the figures for Cascabel gives a value of $1.68B for the concession
And hence we are looking at 55p per share, assuming 3B shares after the merger
The Transaction is anticipated to close following customary regulatory approvals and a special meeting of Cornerstone shareholders to approve the Transaction. The Transaction provides SolGold with the opportunity to sell the 157.1 million SolGold shares held by Cornerstone to strategic investors before the closing of the Transaction.
So DC used 0.06c$ and CGP 0.052c$ per pound of copper for the valuation of Cascabel.
If not a typo the PFS addendum is still finalised this year, but does that mean the market will also be informed before the AGM?
Bozi, I agree. 2023 looks like being the most important year for the company (if you exclude the successful exploration years!) Failure to deliver something tangible will be catastrophic and it's difficult to imagine how any of our board could survive. This eventuality would lead us straight into the hands of BHP/NCM, a fact our new masters know full well and are doing everything they can to avoid. For this reason the prospect of going into the December 2023 AGM without significant change is quite simply the very worst outcome and I fail to understand how anyone could think otherwise.
- Additional optimizations being progressed for a PFS Addendum planned for completion in H2 CY22
- Cascabel project Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) planned for completion in H2 CY23
Comparable Public Company Approach
The premise underlying comparable public company analysis is that the value of a mineral property can be estimated by analyzing the enterprise value of the public companies which operate similar companies or assets under similar circumstances. The value of the properties is assessed as a metric of enterprise value per copper equivalent pound, which is a risk adjusted metric of the reserves and resources contained within a given company’s mine site(s). When performing a comparable public company analysis, it is necessary to identify representative public companies. In determining the comparability of public companies, factors such as the primary ore, location, development stage, reserves and resources, grade, infrastructure and accessibility for the underlying commodity must be taken into consideration.
The valuation firm concluded that the most comparable public company was SolGold, which holds the
85% interest in the ENSA project (through its wholly owned subsidiary SolGold Finance AG). As a result, the market multiple of SolGold’s enterprise value per risk adjusted in situ copper pound identified drove the valuation range concluded in the report.
Historical transaction multiple approach.
The valuation firm performed market research to identify historical transactions where properties similar to Cascabel were acquired. The key considerations in identifying comparable properties were as follows:
- Exploration stage
- Primary metal is copper
- NI 43-101 resources technical report has been prepared prior to the transaction.
The valuation firm concluded that none of the companies or assets identified in the historical transaction search were as comparable to the ENSA investment, as that of SolGold identified in the comparable public company market approach.
Summary and conclusion:
The valuation of ENSA is based on the comparable public company multiple implied by the enterprise value of SolGold. The result was a value per risk adjusted in situ copper pound of $0.052. This value was then subject to a marketability discount of 5%. The model is most sensitive to the in-situ price of copper as determined through analysis of the market capitalization of SolGold.
At September 30, 2022, a 5% increase/decrease in the in-situ price per pound of Copper would result in an increase/decrease in the fair value estimate of ENSA of approximately $4.06 million keeping all other variables constant. Management continues to believe that the market approach is the most appropriate approach in consideration of various factors including the volatility in the in-situ value per pound of copper.
SH, a 'quick sale' (I'd dispute that description) does not require 'desperate bidders'. A process is being followed by Maxit and Citi which, due to our recent fund raising, can be completed without a gun to our heads.
The potential buyers are not desperate, but they are interested in expanding their copper activities - indeed, BHP have been very vocal in describing copper as fundamental to their future, and they are very far from being alone.
To conclude, I don't accept your central premise.
Also really enjoy the 'deramp' suggestion. It's up there with Red saying I have a large platform (!)
Spoiler alert: nothing anyone says on this small message board of the same dozen people has any influence whatsoever on the company, the share price or the market sentiment. None at all.
Some would do well to realise that :)
Sorry, FT. It might bolster your blinkered view to believe I don't just genuinely think there won't be a sale soon, but that's the reality. Shares locked in, no interest in trading, sit back and relax. Call out people presenting the imminent sale argument as substantiated fact :)
Cornerstone has their special shareholder meeting on January 9th. I am no expert, but I would assume it will take about a month to get all approvals after that. That's if the shareholders vote for the merger.
Addicknt - No need to wait for an answer as he is clearly on here to de-ramp either for personal gain or he is being paid by an unknown organisation to sow his seeds of doubt! Either way he is totally disingenuous!
There is absolutely no doubt that the company now want the same thing as most of you on here- a quick sale. I've maintained that for a quick sale you need a desperate bidder(s), and that's the ingredient that's missing. Other companies will be willing to wait, and won't bid just because Red or Fort or Maxit really wants them to. And to reiterate, as people have short memories, I am sure someone will bid for solg, just not imminently. Others here have been unwilling to commit to a date when they say 'this will kick off soon', because they fear being wrong. I've said it won't sell until after AGM '23, IMO. Every day that passes, those who have thrown shade at me remain incorrect, and I'm still right - it's quite a nice feeling :)
Addicknt - I think StackHigh knows full well what is going on here. They've just taken an opinion that riles those on this board who like to think a takeover is coming, purposely I suspect.
And I understand that because it's all that has been talked about for years here. It's dominated everything else to the extent that the fundamentals of the asset have often been overlooked for discussions about boardroom dynamics and corporate manoeuvring.
I do at least appreciate where he/she is coming from but decided instead to try and start a different conversation re the spin-off, which I think was worthwhile.
But one thing is for sure, if nothing happens by end of Q1/April, then a 2023 AGM becomes a huge question mark, such will the precarious nature of our position be and the likely predation that will likely bring.
SH, given your view that nothing will happen and that life will be the same this time next year, may I ask what you think the purpose of the SR actually is? Do you believe the new management team will do nothing to change the direction of the company?
Are Sangha's comments nothing more than wishful thinking? And for that matter, NM's comments relating to DGR's holding.
Are we to conclude that all of the recent events are really no more than a facade?
All of the available evidence suggests a very significant shift in direction, and yet you appear to dismiss this as no more than flim-flam and bluster. Why?
When should we expect the merger between Solgold and cornerstone to be finalized?