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Apologies dbw just reading up on HARL and my oil and gas ones ,quite a bit to take in there ,I would be very surprised if Q answer you lol!!:) Not long now imho
Lol Q it’s being sold …. If this happens will you be wrong?
A simple question even you should understand
Bubbles …. It’s coming home
Quady ,no I know nothing at all really totally clueless should give up trading and spot trading and crypto trading that I've been doing for last 25yrs and stick to fishing and gardening ,but there again we going to production aren't we?
DBW every time you come on here to talk about what I think.
You either get it wrong on purpose or misrepresent me.
People on here are allowed to change opinion as the facts and evidence changes.
I have always done that.
So, when you say I have not been constantly right then you are misrepresenting the facts.
I have been right up till now because every time someone like you says this will be sold, I have explained why it would not at that moment in time.
I have always said that given the facts and evidence that production is the most likely outcome.
Addicknt has tried to say I have said production was a certainty.
I have never said that.
I still believe we can bring this to production as I believe it is the most likely outcome.
However, when it was announced that we would be acquiring 100% of ENSA. I modified my view that a JV to bring us to production was the most likely outcome.
I know you find this hard to understand and I understand that you need to misrepresent me, so that your views hold water.
But that's your problem not mine.
Bozi it’s just opinion
Everything I have read and researched points me towards a full sale , whether it be the clear message that exploration is currently off the table , the involvement of M&A experts or the letting go of serious numbers of staff at all levels. This has a value and, although it might not be what we’d once hoped for, this will IMHO be sold soon …. If it is I hope we all make a few quid …. If it isn’t I’m wrong…. Simple
Bozi. I think it’s fair to assume If a Porvenir PEA showed anything close to an IRR of 30-35% on account of lower capex due to a much shallower deposit the PEA would not have been buried.. it would have been released ASAP.
I admit, I do like your suggestion and reasoning of the spin out, but from a purely selfish, personal position, I’d like a clean break as quickly as possible, even if it adds just a few extra pounds from the regionals now, rather than maybes down the road.
What ever the route to 40-50p in the near future gets my approval.
DBW - come on now. Don't be doubling down here.
People have asked you to justify your thinking behind a full sale. Forget who is going to be right and wrong, it doesn't matter as long as we all do well.
NewCo is merely the term I have used for the company that would be created were the spin out option to be pursued. Nothing more.
For what it's worth, I acknowledge there are pointers that you could say are suggestive of a sale, but the same pointers don't dispel the spin off option. The termination of the Head of HR for example and no intention to replace is suggestive that SolGold's days are severely numbered, but they're numbered in a regional spin off scenario too.
I think people would be more accepting of having a discussion about a sale of a small number of concise points were offered to give a basis, that's all.
Fort totally agree …. If you care then vote
Bozi ….. what Newco? I have been berated for calling a sell when there is no evidence….. where is this Newco ?
By the way the reason I treat Q with such disdain is that he has claimed to be the only one to call this right so far ….. when Solgold take this to production he will be right until then it’s simply ****** …. If it is JV’d he’ll retain a tiny bit of credibility due to his recent U turn …. And when it’s sold he will be proven completely wrong on all counts.
See you all tomorrow
Post the recent placing on Dec 9th and the merger dilution of Jan 9th, the following is roughly correct (not precise and in no order).
1. BHP 9.9%
2. NCM 9.9%
3. Norges 2.8%.
4. Blackrock 3.6%
Combined total (as an example = 26.2%
5. Tenstar 3.4%
6. DGR 6.5%
7. N Mather 2.8%
8. Jiangxi 4.9%
Combined total (as an example = 17.6%
CGP's previous 6.7% holding would be down to around 5% and held in treasury one assume.
Between these larger holders, there's just short of 45% accounted for. The rest is out there via pi's, fund managers, HNWI's and so on. So that paints a picture that is very tight imho.
But compared to last years AGM, there's some decent weight reduction from the rogues in the above tier.
Going to be tight. So get your votes in.
Lunchmoney ... (the master of precision) feel free to polish the above up!
Bubble I am convinced you don't understand trading. You certainly don't understand A trades and I haven't seen anything from you that says you understand how price movements happen.
You just repeat uninformed posts.
For reference on A trades, whenever I submit a trade it goes through as an A trade. My broker has DMA which probably explains this. I'm not building a stake for BHP in case your wondering;)
Bubble - A trades happen on any stock where an investor has set up an automated trading system.
Look at all the stocks with good liquidity. They all have A trades daily.
Are you of the view it is anything more than a coincidence?
Bubble, should people summing the A trades to see if someone is 'building a stake' also sum the A trade sells that are 'walking the price down'?! Or can we finally agree that there is no Boogeyman in the solg share price- just small time retail traders thinking they're the next Warren B?
DBW - I haven't mentioned the p word anywhere at any stage.
I explained what would need to happen after the part you quoted and why I think it should happen.
It's not about being right, honestly. I want SOLG to explore the options that deliver the best value for us all.
Lets get Cascabel sold. Mitsui - if you want in now is the time. You can have 100% if you're willing to front up the cash. You're just not having the regionals. We'll keep those thanks.
Bob knows this. He led the Cornerstone strategy that revolved around farming down promising assets and keeping a small stake for exposure.
Well, Cascabel is matured. Let's pass it on to more experienced hands and let's get back to what SolGold do best.
A trades have been going on for over a year add them up Quady
Not2sure why would I look silly you have just expressed what I have been saying.
On the A trades no one has been stake building as volumes too low.
A meaningful stake build at this rate would mean we were in production before such a stake was built.
Besides I have explained A trades so many times.
If an offer is put forward that all parties of the diverse book accept an offer, then we have what I have always argued a full price offer. If a hostile bid is put in, then they will end up paying more.
“It's the same for any company in the market in this space that isn't generating their own revenue”
No it’s not our commitments are huge …. All pretence of becoming a producer are gone so any further expenditure will be largely wasted.
You may turn out to be right who knows but I think this has pretty much run its course now. The rot set in a couple of years ago when Nick stepped down but at least we are now acting in conjunction with some serious M&A players …. Maxit will help us bring this home
And DBW, if we assume the equity dilution in NewCo pays for exploration, just as it has for SOLG in recent years, you cant rule out a royalty or two for Porvenir.
If a Porvenir PEA showed an IRR of 30-35% on account of lower capex due to a much shallower deposit, a royalty or two to get through PFS and DFS would be much more palatable.
Granted, NewCo would have to move quicker and more efficiently through the studies than SolGold did.
DBW - with all due respect, I'm not understanding how spending commitments are such a concern. It's the same for any company in the market in this space that isn't generating their own revenue.
Unless you're looking to sell up everything now and take your funds right out of the market, a full sale does not make sense.
As investors, and as Add alluded to and nobody has questioned him on, the conundrum is this:
Will an outright sale of SolGold now pay more than a Cascabel sale and spin out of the regionals into NewCo?
I don't think anyone can argue that it would.
In terms of spend commitments, SOLG would clearly need to get round the table with Lasso. They'd have to point to selling Cascabel, say to a Jiangxi or a Mitsui, helping to get the mine ready for Ecuador ASAP.
They'd need Lasso to revise the spend commitments, which were unrealistic let's be honest. SolGold and other companies can't get quick drilling permits in order to spend the dollars required but at the same time they have spent plenty at Porvenir, Rio, La Hueca. Covid19 lockdown and labour movement restrictions will have added to the challenge.
But NewCo would fund the spending under new management. Solgold still claim, as recently as the last presentation, to have their 3c/lb exploration costs and that will be preserved if further work at the regionals were to prove fruitful.
So, DBW, if SOLG sold Cascabel, and you decided you didn't fancy equity dilution in NewCo, you could sell it on the first day of dealings following IPO. That crystallises a further gain on the whole entity. So to use the example I provided earlier, you'd effectively be dealing in two tranches for 78p(SOLG) and 8p NewCo rather than 85p SOLG. But the beauty of it is you get your full gain and the folks who want to continue with NewCo can do so.
Let them debate novice that was this board is for, it's a lot better than your gimmick one liners that nobody respects or cares about.
Bozi …. It’s a question of how we fund this for the next however many years ….. servicing all the licenses …. Exploration costs ….. whatever other spend commitments we’ve made to the Ecuadorean government. It will either mean giving away a huge chunk in royalties or massive dilution. I have never said your scenario wasn’t in many ways preferable I just think we’re being told this will be a a simple one time takeout …. The strategic review ( if we get one ) will hopefully shed some more light on this.
Hoping the company releases some decent stuff in the run up to the AGM and a swift conclusion thereafter.
Q- RK claims to have filtered and unfiltered me on numerous occasions. On one occasion I overstepped the mark but all the other times it's because he doesn't take well to being debated by someone who isn't going to succumb to such a career heavyweight.
I really don't want to make this about people, so let's leave this element here if we can.
It's all about SOLG achieving the best possible result for me, and by flogging everything lock stock and barrel in one single transaction, 3-5years before what is quite obviously going to be a copper boom and supercycle, is not very likely to be the best result for us all.
That's my view, and I've set out quite clearly why I think that's the case.
Whether RK is right or wrong who knows but would you agree Q that if someone comes along with an offer that is acceptable to the ' diverse ' book and that it turns out an entity was building a stake under the guise of some of those A trades all along you would look a little silly for your forthright thoughts ? Just a hypothetical proposition which I am sure you will shoot down but a question all the same