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LTI - you need to learn to read and comprehend before you get all condescending and critical.
I didn't have to come up with a list, I was asked for one. This had nothing to do with Shell it was talking about wider markets - have you looked at FTSE and American markets in last few hours?
I'm not HOPING for a fall back in Shell - I just said I'd buy back in at that level if it happened. That would be a 5% drop over my sale price, enough to cover buying costs and lost dividend. Plenty of other shares to buy at better value at present.
A profit isn't a profit until you take it - I've made one on Shell and think chances of similar capital gain over next few months is unlikely. .
By all means offer constructive comment but making stuff up isn't helpful to anyone.
My transaction costs ie stamp duty, brokerage etc is about 1.3%. So to trade ie sell now and buy later works out to about 2.6%. Tried to time the market before and lost out. So for now I’m holding on to my 3000+ shares in Shell. It still feels like it has legs to run and if the dividends go back to pre-pandemic levels, it could even go higher. £30 may be possible, so I guess I’ll hold on for now. If you decide to sell , then just walk away. Don’t try to trade it at these levels, may not be worth the transaction costs.
C
''Jim800 what’s the big market shock you are expecting?''
He had to come up with a list to justify his selling with the HOPE of a fallback - but he is still willing to buy at 2250p (not much of a drop) despite the list.
Whoops, I forgot to factor in the 0.5% stamp duty charge to re-buy which would be around d £1.2k so the difference would be smaller still at around £1.5k; hardly worth the day trade risk with the longer term trend still upward.
If you look at every ex-div date since q1 2020, Shell has seen at least a 2% drop on the day on 7 out of the 8 dates, with the 8th being something like a 1.5% drop, however if you look at the share price over the same time period the trend has been an upward straight line. So the question really is, is it worthwhile performing a day trade because the SP drop will be lower than the dividend payment.
In my case, I have 9,350 shell shares so I'm looking around £1.8k in dividend payments however if the share prices drops 2% from the current price of 2383p, that's a value drop of around £4.5k, a difference of £2.7k which isn't the end of the world as I'm largely expecting Shell to continue rising into the £25-£27 range.
Decisions, decisions.
Personally I would suggest revisiting the figures you are quoting, looking at a different time-frame, and be hesitant to base any decision on your suggested figures.
On the 4.3.22. the SP had fallen by £1.90p from the day prior to the Ex-dividend date, within 15 trading days, around - minus 9.3%.
On the 26.11.21. the SP had fallen by £1.25p from the day prior to the Ex-dividend date, within 13 trading days, around minus 7.4%.
Chris, and a possible massive recession lasting years …… Sooooo many elephants in the room but whatever happens I still feel safer staying put.
I've cashed in. Sold @2390. Not bothered about the divvies. Happy with the profit and got my BP to keep me going.
Chris, Not sure, choose from:
- Ukraine getting worse
- World food shortages
- World inflation and higher interest rates
- COVID re-emerging in less developed countries (as per China and North Korea)
- Power rationing
- Russia demonstrating their displeasure at Sweden and Finland joining NATO
- UK Govt all being in jail for various offences
- Brexit trade war over NI protocol
Good points Nomad. I also remembered there's a 0.5% stamp duty cost on any repurchase. So if the quarterly payout represents about 1.15% + 0.5% SDT, the SP has to fall more than 1.65% tomorrow for it to be a worthwhile sell. That excludes any CGT liability considerations too. I'm inclined to hold.
Dub, I am no trading expert so I would not make investment decisions by what happened on previous ex-div’s days as there has been so much crazy news. For example last November we were turning the corner on Covid then last February the Russians invaded Ukraine.
Jim800 what’s the big market shock you are expecting?
I’m all sold up at 2376 this morning. Will buy back in if it drops back to mid 2200s.
Think there’s a big market shock on the horizon somewhere.
Mornign fellow holders, I'm trying to figure out whether it makes sense to sell ex-div. By my calculations, the SP fell 2.64% last quarter on ex-div. It took two weeks to recover. In November 21, it appeared to fall just shy of 1% and took just 2 days to surpass it's SP before ex-div. If it falls 1-2%, I will lose significantly more than the dividend payout.
Additionally, do you know of any tax implications for doing this?
Grateful for thoughts...