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Does anyone have subscription that could post the text here?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/oil-stocks-have-dropped-but-theyll-gush-profit-again-tx9dk576l
So here we are 24 hours later and I suppose it would have made better sense to sell. I posited that cost of missed div and paying stamp duty to re-buy was 1.65% thereabouts. We are currently down 2.76%, so call it a 1% difference. That equates to quite a lot with a large enough stake. I held, as I said I would. But I may think about it again next quarter particularly if the SP climbs 2-3% in just on day prior to ex-div.
Good points Nomad. I also remembered there's a 0.5% stamp duty cost on any repurchase. So if the quarterly payout represents about 1.15% + 0.5% SDT, the SP has to fall more than 1.65% tomorrow for it to be a worthwhile sell. That excludes any CGT liability considerations too. I'm inclined to hold.
Mornign fellow holders, I'm trying to figure out whether it makes sense to sell ex-div. By my calculations, the SP fell 2.64% last quarter on ex-div. It took two weeks to recover. In November 21, it appeared to fall just shy of 1% and took just 2 days to surpass it's SP before ex-div. If it falls 1-2%, I will lose significantly more than the dividend payout.
Additionally, do you know of any tax implications for doing this?
Grateful for thoughts...
I'm in the same boat Kelso. Feel I should sell because I have too much in one stock, but where is better? Tech is being smashed, perhaps financials? I took a position in some UK banks. But I think this is Shell's time...especially as we have now broken USD 90 on brent.
Good point about inflation, but then it's better yield than most other places at the moment. I had honestly expected a much bigger jump on opening. Perhaps it will catch up during the day.
Market didn't like it. Bottom line - it missed earnings consensus.
Or for those w/o BB subscription:
https://leaderpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/shell-sets-bigger-carbon-reduction-target-as-earnings-fall-short
That's helpful, thanks to you and Mesh. I suppose I still don't understand how we could fall short of all consensus estimates and the results be good? Yet, the CFFO does seem to be higher than market expectations and, as you point out, debt reduced significantly. I guess I too don't know how to read the reports well enough. I'm curious as to the market reaction...
Unless I am missing something (hopefully), Shell have missed the consensus estimates by USD 1bn. I'm expecting the SP to drop. Hopefully someone will correct me, if not the SP itself!
Indeed. I have been wondering what the impact would be. It is one thing having high oil & gas prices but no if you are not producing because your assets are offline. However, it seems the below statement from Shell sheds further light on it and the losses seem modest in light of our overall revenue, plus revenue lost after 60 days of downtime should be recoverable under insurance.
Houston, Sept. 27, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Shell Midstream Partners, L.P.
(NYSE:SHLX) (“Shell Midstream Partners” or the “Partnership”) today announced
that it expects outages and repairs related to Hurricane Ida to have an impact
to both net income and cash available for distribution of approximately $45 to
$55 million for the third quarter of 2021 and $20 to $30 million for the
fourth quarter of 2021. The majority of the impact is related to the
previously disclosed downtime across various pipeline assets, as well as
remediation costs related to the Partnership’s assets in the Gulf of Mexico
and onshore in southeastern Louisiana.
Shell Midstream Partners carries several insurance policies in kinds and
amounts customary to the industry, which may offset some costs of any asset
damage and business losses. The Partnership’s business interruption insurance
related to lost revenue is expected to begin after sixty days of downtime. The
Partnership intends to file all appropriate claims.
Are we expecting a trading update note within this week?
I've written to my MP, a Conservative, and suggested that he is more likely to secure my vote in the coming election if his party will support the North, rather than just give lip service to it. He said he would try to raise it with the Minister and I await a reply. Today I followed up and forwarded the BBC article OR posted below. We should all badger our MP's about this so the message gets back centrally that the people feel this is important, regardless of whether we think it will work or not. My MP was receptive and they all will be sensitive to this around an election. Even if you put it on their radar, if it comes up on their agenda at any point, they will have your words in the back of their mind. Be sensible - write to your MP.