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We can speculate all day long about Vulpes and Redmiles motives and I'm not sure it takes us any further.
Regarding Vulpes, it's far too early to say that their position is untenable and that they'll offload their stock. I know there's been the suggestion that this is already a done deal and the buyer is waiting in the wings but we have no idea what conversations are taking place at the moment or what twists and turns are to come. Vulpes have a responsibility to their clients and their primary consideration will be protecting their investment and profit - they're long on 133m shares.
Redmile - have seen lots of claims about Redmile's intentions but I think most of these overestimate Scancell's importance to them. They're a $6 billion fund - they're invested at any one time in 80 to 100 stocks. I can't see any evidence that their motives here are control or to take over Scancell or that they have any intention of collecting biotech companies. Of course there's risk in having a major investor with such a large potential holding but they already hold enough with their CLNs to trigger a mandatory offer. They bought that stock at 5.5p and so any mandatory offer would only need to be made at that level. If they wanted to take control then why would they go on and buy more at 13P, thereby upping the price?
Redx's CEO, Lisa Anson was presenting last night at a Proactive one2one . With Scancell's shareholders in mind, Timbo very kindly asked her about the potential threat from Redmile and their intentions. You can listen to her reply via the link below and make your own minds up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGGRadLPLqs
Bermuda,
Good summary and thanks for sharing the timbo link.
If Redmile converted in order to breach the 30% threshold, the offer would have to be 6.2p wouldn’t it?
the offer can be whatever they want it to be, it just has to be a minimum of the highest price they have paid.
Just a reminder that they only have to make you an offer.. you DON'T have to accept it (unless they get 90% of shares from the offer, in which case the remaining 10% are mandatory).
I think the danger would be if they offered something like 40 or 50p. How many people would accept the quick profit? For me it would cost them a lot more than that to buy my shares.
Thanks Bermuda,
Agree Ruck and Konar.
My understanding us if they go over 30% they have to make an offer to buy at the highest the SP has been during the previous 12 months so more like 20p.
I may be wrong in this but highlighted this in the past as once you give control to big SH you clearly lose the ability to determine SCLP destiny and they can determine the outcome and at a price that suits them
I watched that Redx presentation and question from Timbo which is at about just past the 1.27.00 mark for anyone interested... Very happy to hear their view of redmile that basically backs their business plan and funded them to take their assets into the clinic!...Sofinova partners have also come in there too...
Yes but they acquired Redx for a cheap price is the point. They can do the same with Scancell.
redx were bust.... they are now funded still listed you can have shares in them and they have products in trial and pharma deals...
Yes I agree but my concern is Redmile getting Scancell on the cheap. It`s out of our hands regardless so we are mere spectators.
Bill, I agree that individually we are mere spectators.
Considered Collectively, we may have more influence.
The question is more what would unite us to work together for the best outcome for Scancell, for patients, and investors?
redmile did not get redx on the cheap they have funded that company to turn itself completely around before it sank and in a fast timeline too... We need trials for that we need funds and if we are going to have a proper 4 target large cohort modi1 trial I think we are better taking that £17 million now. ... Vulpes are not going to be stumping that amount up are they
LL What would unite us?
Probably a more tolerant view of others concerns and a general attempt not to be so partisan.
that might work. :-)
AB, Having a more tolerant view on the boards of the next best thing is probably the best start. Thank you.
If I had all the answers to the quest of what might unite private investors, I might have my own collaborative investment firm. LOL
ATB all, however you vote/can't vote.
Crumbs, perhaps you can enlighten me as I am not familiar with Redx. As I understand it;
Yesod's made a cash offer of 15 pence per common share. Rejected over concerns that it undervalued the company and its assets.
But the announcement was followed by another release in which Moulton Goodies Ltd., Redx's largest shareholder, agreed to sell its holdings in the U.K.-based drugmaker — 74,998,896 shares representing 39.5% of the company — to Redmile Group for 15.5 pence apiece.
Redmile made an initial investment in Redx earlier in March, and with the acquisition of Moulton's shares, would end up owning approximately 45.5% of Redx Pharma. As a result, and under U.K. regulation, Redmile is now required to make an offer to buy the rest of the company.
Redmile is offering 15.5 pence apiece for every stock it does not own — above Yesod's latest cash offer of 15 pence per common share, and the offer is backed by the Redx board. The offer values the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Redx at approximately £29.5 million.
I am not nor ever have been a redx holder.... they now have an sp of 67p ... The place to ask questions about them is there BB here is the link https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=REDX&share=Redx-Pharma
Ask the pi there what they think of redmile and report back cheers
Bill -
I'll copy across a post I made a few weeks ago on advfn which may put a different light on things.
Bermudashorts - 12 Oct 2020 - 16:04:54 - 32866 of 33670 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
DC
I have been invested in Redx on and off and so know the company and its history well. The circumstances that led to Redmile's offer for Redx were unique and quite different from the situation Scancell are in. Suffice to say that Redx had been in and out of administration, had been forced to sell its lead candidate at bargain basement prices and were struggling to secure funding. They also had a major shareholder, John Moulton who wanted out. Against that backdrop they had great science and a very highly regarded CEO.
Redmile became involved with a small equity placing, a short term loan and CLNs but it was the purchase of John Moulton's stock (39.5% of the company)which took them above the 30% threshold and triggered rule 9 of the Takeover Code thereby forcing a mandatory offer. This action was backed by the BOD and worth noting that the offer was for 15.5p but the SP at the time had fallen to around 5p and the market cap was under £9m - a sorry state of affairs and you can imagine what the outcome would have been if John Moulton had tried to sell his stock on the open market. So Redmile found themselves owning over 30% of a company. However, this was a function of the very low market cap and the fact that it simply wasn't possible to provide the funding and stability the Company needed without going over the 30% threshold.
Since then, as we know Redx have gone on to sign a licensing deal with AstraZeneca and another deal with Jazz Pharmaceuticals and the share price is around 70p. A perfect example of Redmile's investment strategy in action. They look at fundamentals and try to spot trends or events ahead of the market. They have a deep understanding of biotech and are prepared to fund companies to ensure they are able to fulfil their potential.
Redmile are a multi billion $ investment fund, their motivation is profit and they'll be looking for an exit with all their invesments - they're not interested in acquiring and running biotechs, it's not what they're about and that's why Redx remains listed on AIM despite the fact that Redmile own 90% of the stock.
All IMO of course.
Wow so a pi there could have bought shares at 5p and now they are worth 67p... cheers redmile I would say if I were one of their long-suffering pi looking at the company about to go bust.... redmile do not to seem to have acted predatory there but responsibly as they must believe in the value of the pipeline which seems to have turned out well for all and I doubt sanofi partners would have come in too if they feared redmiles intentions...
cheers boom...
I do know Vulpes like to sell to stop a rising sp as I have witnessed that here
Bermuda
You describe ann excellent example of Redmile in action and their motivation.
Of course they are after as much profit as they can get but their modus operandi seems to be to look for undervalued companies with great science and allow those companies to achieve their goals through funding.
The key to this is Redmile doing their due diligence on the science.
With the extra 17.9 million Scancell can go full steam ahead running several trials concurrently. As crumbs says this is particularly important in the modi1 trial which is really 4 trials in one.
Just to answer the specific quesiton about Yesod.
Yesod did indeed make an offer which was rejected and by the time the second offer came along, Redmile had already become involved and the second offer was rejected . It's worth having a look at Yesod which was set up by Sam Waskal - see here:-
http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1903155_1903156_1903172,00.html
Of course Redmile are motivated by profit. but I can't see any evidence so far that they're an aggressive predator. They haven't forced Redx to delist and nobody was forced to sell their shares. Those who were brave enough to hold have done very well as have Redmile.
I don't think that link works but you can google him if you're interested.
This gives more detail and it's clear Redx were heading for administration (again!)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/biotech-firm-redx-in-takeover-talks-with-disgraced-us-pharma-boss-sam-waksal-tccgftsdv
The link works if you copy and paste the full link up to and including .html into your browser.
Apologies if this has been posted recently.
I think it would be worthwhile hearing what Vulpes said about WHY they got involved with Scancell from mid 2019 - I missed it then as I was out of the market. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg0krSrl4Mw&feature=emb_logo
ATB all.
A quick look at the Redmile portfolio reveals that their investment in SCLP is pocket change. Clearly something got their attention and you would have to say "why would they bother" ? My sense is that they have been tipped off by BioNtech (currently 3.8 % of their portfolio) that Moditope is something special, especially as it is just about ready to go into the clinic (hence 2 years to repay the loan). Maybe with a bit more work, they are confident that BioNtech will be doing a deal with SCLP for some sort of Modi licence and have invested with upside in both companies in mind. 1, to protect and grow their BioNtech investment and 2. to grow SCLP and its innovative science as a longer term investment. Win, Win, Win!
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/redmile-group-llc#tabholdings_tab_link
Dale, Looks like a good resource, but I can't seem to find SCLP in RM's list. What am I missing?
Probably not included yet, (not sure when / if ) I used it as an indicator of what the invest in and how big their investments are .