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@wyndrum.... I hope you didn't jinx it. You should know that ONC does not tend to react kindly when private investors buy shares.
Thanks CI, Obviously I think there is more chance of a bottom at 53p than further falls or I would have waited longer. On balance I think its the relatively gradual unwinding of a again relatively small move (10%) of the high that makes me think this is it.
But who knows....And as I always say, at some stage you have to pull the trigger.
Great to have u on board Wyn. Good you have a bit of skin in the game. Look forward to ur future analysis and opinions :)
Just taken a small bite today as it has retraced to the low when it fell from 84p down to 53p.
It could fall to lower, more recent supports hence my small purchase.
so from a chart pov it will be interesting to see if it moves up or down from here as to gauge what's most likely next.
Hi,
I Exited when I got the cash from ORPH. Not saying that makes it a sell. Far from it. Just other opportunities. Did very well out of ORPH (HVO) though with several bags!
Good luck with your investments
Trek
Hello again Trek !
Have you looked at POLB ? A strong term buy.
As a shareholder, I like the recent announcements and happy to see the company's momentum.
However following the company for more than a year I am now cautious with the management optimism. The expectations mentioned in 7th Dec announcements are based on strong top line delivery. As per my understanding from their announcement, any set back in the trading would require further cash injection.
"the Board considers that the Company will have sufficient cash headroom to meet its short-term working capital, debt service and growth needs. This position assumes that trading continues to improve significantly, such that the baseline revenue expectations for the year to August 2023 described in the outlook section above can be exceeded."
"In the event that trading volumes and cash generation are lower than anticipated, the Board, if required, would need to take actions to generate further cash inflows and/or conserve cash"
Now the financials are pretty much sorted the market will start to attribute value for the tech.
Management options are still 200p!
Usual caveats
Trek
Onwards and upwards
More good contract news from ONC today, but i'll draw your attention to the most important part of today's announcement..."All intellectual property rights ("IP") developed during the collaboration shall be owned exclusively by Oncimmune. On completion of this initial contract, the biotech company shall have the option to extend the collaboration to a verification study on commercial terms with Oncimmune and to take-up an option to enter into a 20-year agreement to licence from the Company the IP generated from the collaboration in consideration for an upfront payment and an ongoing royalty payment."
This is effectively the drug discovery model and could hold significant value for Oncimmune for years to come. Whilst it is impossible to quantify this at present, any new drugs that benefit from our tech could have game changing economics for Oncimmune shareholders. There is nothing in the share price for this at present and this is all blue sky upside that could and should be replicated across any diseases.
More good news, Oncimmune's US distributor signs 4 new four private payers insurance coverage of approximately 4.5 million people.
Biodesix Announces First Four Private Payer Coverage Policies for the Nodify XL2® Test - link below
https://investors.biodesix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/biodesix-announces-first-four-private-payer-coverage-policies
Interesting to note that Oncimmune's US distribution partner Biodesix's share price has risen 53% since its capital raise less than 1 month ago. Oncimmune's Nodify CDT product represents c50% of Biodesix's revenue and is clearly set to grow very strongly, given it forms a key part of its growth strategy and the basis for its $90m capital raise.
The Service's side (ImmunoInsights) is set for even stronger growth and the company are forecasting £5.5m of revenue this year making it broadly cash flow breakeven. Any upside to this number with see Oncimmune swing to profit, as the vast majority of the 80% margin falls straight to the bottom line.
2023 should prove to be a pivotal year for the business and an exciting journey for all investors.
More good news....
"Since announcing the Capital Raising on 7 December 2022, the Company is pleased to have signed further ImmunoINSIGHTS contracts with a combined value of approximately $1.25 million with an existing global pharmaceutical client, ..."
Raise at a premium and added in the TU to support decision.
Need to read it all again but on face looks a solid tuck away. May briefly dip below 40 with market malaise but imo this is pretty much as low as it will go obviously macro aside.
Usual caveats
Trek
totally agree amongst the wreckage of last 18 months and from the Biodesix ancnt the world is in a post covid catch up .
diagnostics should be worth a lot of money at some point . probably more than current market cap . so you get immunoinsights for nothing. this high margin high growth area with the worlds biggest Pharma cos is testamount to their tech , and the ex boss of Syneos healthcare has joined the board . this has huge upside
Certain directors intending to subscribe for £1.2mln- I am guessing a large proportion of that is from the new Chairman Alistair. I guessing the new appointed non-exe director John Goold who just started a new fund listed on LSE will also invest. This looks like insiders taking a position before the company reaches inflexion point next year with EarlyCDT Lung expected to grow significantly over the short-term as Biodesix their US distributor raises $90mil to fund expansion. I have high hopes for this one 12 months from now. GLA, DYOR, IMO.
Good question Gamblors, I did not find the royalty numbers. But it does say Biodesix will pay Oncimmune a total of $28 million over five years. I am guessing this is equivalent to the licensing rights for EarlyCDT excluding COGS and Royalty.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/biodesix-acquires-oncimmune-s-u-s-lab-for-rule-lung-nodule-cancer-blood-test
Do you know what the onc agreement with biodesix provides, in terms of royalty / milestone payments? I had a track back through rns announcements on the arrangement + accounts but couldn't see this detail . It would be nice to know
Biodesix which is Oncimmune's USA distributor of EarlyCDT Lung raised $40m equity + $50m debt totalling $90m to drive commercial sales of their core lung-diagnostic business which mainly consists of Oncimmune's EarlyCDT Lung rights. This hopefully will drive sales and bring more royalty payments to Oncimmune.
I am hoping Adam Hill and his team can deliver some positive news to drive up the share price so we can raise some capital to further invest in the business. IMO , DYOR
It would be very meaningful if Chairman decides to have skin in the game. He's LOADED. At current market cap, he could probably afford to buy out the company by himself, not saying he would but just to mention his compensation at Syneos as CEO was around £6-8mil per year. A serious several £million investment in ONC would definitely align interests and bring excitement for all shareholders. I hope he is not passive in taking this company to the next growth stages. A small company like Oncimmune requires his help to wisdom, expertise and most importantly action.
I think there could be a wave of information and unmet need in this space….
US survey just out well covered in US press, example posted…
BUSINESSLong Covid may be ‘the next public health disaster’ — with a $3.7 trillion economic impact rivaling the Great Recession…
https://bigindynews.com/business/long-covid-may-be-the-next-public-health-disaster-with-a-3-7-trillion-economic-impact-rivaling-the-great-recession/
Remember this from ONC…
https://www.oncimmune.com/contract-signed-with-verily-life-sciences-an-alphabet-company-to-profile-autoantibodies-for-long-covid-19/
There was also a follow on contract in the sars-cov-2 profiling space.
I remember how testers moved during the pandemic. I see no reason why given ONC’s vast autoantibody database that there shouldn’t have been a pull in its immunoINSIGHTS technology.
The beauty of ONC is that they do the testing with their proprietary database that is probably the biggest globally for pharma and charge them per test. Like selling shovels during the gold rush!
I am hoping we have made good progress on long covid profiling. This is now being pretty much picked up in the private sector and as from the news article it’s impact is starting to be costed it will be interesting to hear of ONC have been able to commercialise any of the technology as it’s been quiet since the RNS’s.
Will be good if we get an update on this and much more in December.
Usual caveats
Trek
Averaging back in here over last few sessions, not as much as before though! I think the bottom is in. 2nd half numbers should be good and if calendar repeats we should get an update in December.
Also if they needed cash which I very much doubt they’d have raised by now. I think the revs are covering costs and the only way should be back up!
Usual caveats
Trek
Interesting to see Oncimmune's US distribution partner Biodesix raised $35 of equity last Friday. In addition, they secured $50m of debt from Perceptive Advisers, an asset management business with $9.5bn of assets under management. 90% of Biodesix's revenue comes from its lung offering, which is made up of Oncimmune's Early CDT product and 4 other Medicare approved lung product. Biodesix stated this raise was to "reduce near term cash use and enable the continued growth trajectory of the core lung diagnostic business". The go to say, “This financing provides Biodesix with significant flexibility and strengthens our balance sheet thereby positioning us to continue building on the growth momentum we have seen the past few quarters."
The last set of figures from Oncimmune stated that Q1 and Q2 this year will produce nearly £5m of revenue from both the diagnostics and services businesses. This compared to less than £4m in the whole of the previous year. The business is clearly at an inflection point and there is a total disconnect between the progress in the business and the share price. Biodesix shares went up 40% on the back of the refinancing. Oncimmune's cost base currently stands at c£6m per year, so if they can do £5m of revenue in H1, there is every chance this business will swing to profit in H2. Let's not forget this is an 80% margin business, so any incremental revenue over breakeven, effectively is all profit.
For Biodesix to raise $85m of capital to turbo charge their lung offering is clearly excellent news for Oncimmune. The Medicare approval for the Diagnostic test in the US was clearly a game changer, both in terms of the value they can sell it for (+10x) and for the long-term value of the business IP. Exciting times ahead.
An interesting company BUT the prior results tell the story reflected in the share price. Not much cash in the bank and a lot of debt. IMO, if don't get a fund raise soon, they are heading to big trouble. Not easy to raise capital in these economic environments. Hope they are able to raise without a significant discount. IMO, DYOR.
-Revenue £3.86M
-Loss £9.90M
-Share-based payments £1.80M
-Cash £2.53M
-net debt £8.16M