Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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The findings, presented at the 2019 World Conference on Lung Cancer hosted by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) in Barcelona, are an important validation of Oncimmune’s diagnostic platform technology which harnesses the power of the immune system, to detect evidence of the body’s natural response to cancer. The technology can detect cancer on average four years before standard clinical diagnosis.
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From an article in Scottish news re trial of EarlyCDT Lung Cancer Scotland (ECLS) Study.
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The difference between the Grail product and ONC is detection sensitivity. From what I remeber ONC is significantly more sensitive by a factor of 100X and detects far earlier!
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Love the Look and Feel of the new website. The old one was not screaming science or innovation, but had a bit of an antiquated feel. The landing page had old elderly people on it and there is nothing wrong with that but it didn't feel like modern/groundbreaking science.
Results to be expected any time from now u till August 31st indeed. Holding on to my seat.
@Trek - sorry but I am not too familiar with the Grail technology/products and from reading through their website I cannot distill much detail that distinguishes them from Oncimmune. You seem to me to be among the most technical people on this board. I won't pretend to understand the minute detail.
Oncimmune
@OncimmuneECDT
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1h
We’re excited to share the launch of our new website! Home to our biomarker discovery, targeted panels, bioinformatics & data science services. Rediscover http://oncimmune.com and our #ImmunoINSIGHTS platform today! #WebLaunch #TeamOncimmune #ImmuneBiomarkers #Biomarkers
Listed as unknown. Must be a buy. Odd why it hasn't shifted the price. 1 week till news?!
Grail test
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11132485/Holy-grail-trialled-NHS-save-thousands-lives-detecting-cancer-symptoms-show.html
Nothing in here on ours. Wether it will be coupled no idea. Not researched grail so can’t comment on their dataset.
Usual caveats
Trek
^^ fantastic posts and definitely a lift in sentiment. I am very relieved seeing the root cause of our continuous drop recently being the large seller.
Now that we are heading back into the right direction, hopefully the bottoms has been sealed and the lid taken off.
I think the theory that UBs with its large holding via multiple entities is most certainly going to connect omcimmune into their portfolio.
Regarding takeover, when the money is on the table, decisions can be made very quickly. However, i think that ONC would be better off in the short to mid terms to grow independently and servicing large pharma and other institutions as a service partner rather than being somewhat regarded as a competitor for some of their customer base. E.g. if Roche took over ONC, would a Pfizer still want to give this new Roche acquisition much of their business?
Of course other avenues and opportunities would open up having a big Pharma company backing you.
Wish this platform had an edit button!!! 8-/
Thanks Trek, that’s good to hear! Yes, the best performer in my portfolio today, billowed by BHL!
Good find itsyou!
That is pretty impressive number!
Sho2SHB,
If there was a take over whilst one cannot be sure I would assume 200p min to trigger the director options.
AM who was a top appt didn’t strike a new deal. He took on the options that were MS’s who retired. So there was no further future dilution.
He must therefore be pretty confident of ONC reaching the first trigger price. The problem we all have is it looks like taking longer to get back to that level.
But look how the sp has moved today…a few ‘small’ trades moved it up 4.79%. That’s madness on that very low volume!
Usual caveats
Trek
Medicare price for EarlyCDT(aka Nodify CDT) is $649 per test, as mentioned in recent Biodesix conference call
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/rf64jw58
I hope they are not bought as most of my holding was purchased at a much higher price. I have only been able to buy a smaller amount at lower prices because my money is all tied up.
TR1 just in for that trade. That’s the first time I have seen it in one big transaction.
Before we haven’t know how far bellow the 5% threshold the transfer has dipped as it was likely lots of smaller trades. Now we know it was a min of 3885000 shares of 69,475,480 (RNS 14th April 22) listed so that’s a min 5.5919% from a holding of 5.761158%.
I think we can assume they have also transferred on the odd remaining % with smaller amounts.
So what I think has been happening is UBS have been buying with their London branch, UBS AB London Branch, in Name, and then moving the stock to their Zurich branch, UBS Group AG, no London Branch in Name. You can see the crosses above 5% are from London and the crosses below 5% are the group!
This enables them to conceal a higher % of disclosure. 3% and 1% for UK and 5% & 10%, 15% etc for non uk.
UBS AG are imo moving the stock on to another account(s)?
I think it was previously only small % at a time just going below the 5% else it would trigger the London end to below 4%. This trade is bigger and may be a result of a previous accumulation or of course they can’t fill out TR1 forms correctly! That wouldn’t be a first!
Look at all the TR1’s, now why would someone go through all that effort??
If there was a bid here it would likely come after the results are out.
Usual caveats
Trek
must be the cashflow to loan against.
Given how the SP has dropped from 140p to 88p since the interims and is actually up from 77p since the last TU and significant appointment. I am backing that Adam will still better guidance based on rework, productivity, covid, and a beat on EarlyCDT lung. We will also get a benefit from fx tailwinds.
The best is still to come from ONC and it is well positioned to be a major player in the pharma services sector.
Conspiracy theories….
1. Being taken over, BNTX my guess!
2. A take over of a smaller company. Look out if you are in the US and have a lab! Depending on size if more than £5m that could obviously mean a placing.
3. Selling EarlyCDT lung
4. 2 & 3 together
The market will soon wake up to the fact that immunoINSIGHTS is a flipping printing machine at 80% profit which following prod improvements is likely higher!
No reason why ONC cannot replicate the Dortmund lab in the US. This could be a substantial growth story!
Worth ticking a few away for the longer term as not many biotechs with mcap actually sell anything!
Usual caveats
Trek
From last trading update..
EarlyCDT lung….
10x price for EarlyCDT lung via Biodesix sales teams. We also know Medicare covers tests, so available to insurance markets. It’s also been added to the Philips lung cancer management platform. You can see on Philips website.
We know Biodesix have recruited extra sales members and are anchored to a minimum vol contract.
The costing structure is also immediately ebitda positive to ONC.
We also have the final screening report due in Q4 from Norfolk & Waveney CCG and should get an NHS adoption RNS soon. Then there is a second pilot due to start in Q4 with iDX lung1 program kicking off in Southampton and Leeds.
It really is on its way to becoming adopted globally. It will be good to get a more detailed feedback on markets in the finals from the likes of North and South America and Asia/China + Europe ex UK. I assume Russia (Trial in Moscow) has come to a halt?
IMO EarlyCDT lung will surprise to the upside.
ImmunoINSIGHTS
From the last TU we know there has been a slowdown in the signing of new contracts. I would, however, assume that there has been enough rework from existing clients. 5 top 10 listed Pharma’s, 13 in total + 4 more immunoINSIGHTS contracts signed since interims, one follow on contract, the covid auto antibody profiling and govt covid work. Plenty to exceed the £6m revenue guidance. So say 6 contracts signed v 11 over first half but we don’t know how much add on work. This would explain the slowdown in signing statement.
From interims ending Nov 21…Admin (was £4.1m) should increase as the Dortmund capex nets out against the extra sales staff in US but they have increased staff in Dortmund as well.
Loss was £4.86m, cash £3m, debt probably £9m if included post period drawdown R&D £0.7m
Gross profit was £1m
£6m revs v £1.43 (H1) will transform the balance sheet even allowing for the extended period!
The forecast was to grow the immunoINSIGHTS share of the pharma services market to 12% by 2023. That’s a $2.3bn market growing at 10% pa!
ONC was guiding a 300% increase in penetration. So even with a sector slowdown there should be more than enough growth to achieve the conservative £6m of revenues. As an approved supplier for many of the top Pharma’s ONC can turnaround contracts quickly. We also have the increase in prod from Dortmund the unit profit/test should therefore increase.
It’s a pity we don’t know how many immunoINSIGHTS tests are performed. We know 200k EarlyCDT lung tests have be done but not the breakdown. We have an extra 2000 NHS tests booked in in Q4. We also have 30% revs sandbagged from last year and the outlook was ….”The organic growth opportunity for ImmunoINSIGHTS over the next three years is estimated to be substantial.”
So I think when Adam has referred to a slow down in signing new contracts it hasn’t significantly affected the overall volumes. If the team are looking for acquisitions then the cash must be there or there mus
A positive on the energy outlook in Germany with having LNG plants on by end of year.
I posted on Tecan but actually this vid is probably worth a listen. The macro guy is very good…
https://youtu.be/vzvR958CYTw
Usual caveats
Trek
Hi guys,
Kind words. Just been a bit lucky.
GCAT was a tip from itsyou. I have managed to trade my average down there and here.
Both exceptional companies but there has been little escape from the small cap sector malaise mostly irrespective of a companies prospects. It’s required one taking a different approach to buy and hold. Gotta work one’s average which in turn I guess adds to ‘the problem’!
TXP/PHNX/SEPL and DEC was timed nice though all with significant positions and just caught the turnaround!
Really looking forward to the results here.
Good luck with your investments
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek....
Post everyday if that is the effect you have ...
Me thinks you are getting a huge following on these boards ...Nice...
ITIT = in Trek I Trust. I would never have bought here without your advice. Holding a core of 20,000 till options exercised at least. Thanks for this, GLO, GCAT & TXP. All exciting. PXC is my biggest holding - it will come good. I also bought into RMM & ALL at their recent lows.
Crikey I didn’t quite expect it to move up immediately after I posted! Lol!
Will be back over 100p in a flash imo.
Low volume took us here up to that trade now it should rise in anticipation of a good set of financials.
Usual caveats
Trek
It amazes me that given the size and duration of the Scotland trial and overseas use EarlyCDT lung hasn’t been more widely adapted in the UK. There was even a cost benefit analysis paper published last year either by or for the NHS.
Still if anyone has any cash I think we could see a run up to the results here. May be an opportunity to get one’s average down and sell into any rise if so inclined. Mine is now 1.07. I am happy with that.
On the bearish side my concerns are energy costs in Germany. Even though we aren’t a huge user there’s likely to be a significant increase but ONC should be able to pass that on albeit with a lag. I have no idea if they have or indeed need standby generators but it’s certainly a contingency I would put in place for any business nowadays.
Usual caveats
Trek
……if that’s the seller done we might see a change in fortune here.
That’s a hefty trade of 3.885m
That’s a hefty trade of 3.885m