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The market cap of £60 million odd and needing 11 million sales to justify the value is a weak argument.
Great Gold have a market cap of £150 million and the gold is 400 metres underground and not an ounce of gold has been mined. The whole stockmarket is based essentially on projection.
2nd great post,
Great post B2NS2L
A test they are trying to make quicker too.
Yes Greg, and not difficult to see the attraction of an accurate test kit that produces results in < 2 hrs.
Off to give my eyes a rest. Have a good weekend all, ready for the fray on Monday..
7.4 billion people in the world. People will be tested multiple times, people can be re infected... not hard to see the market size for just one of their products..
Yes hope , they would need to sell 11M tests to justify today's MCAP
I posted this earlier in the week but relevant now:
As pressure grows to find testing solutions, I believe the conversion rate will improve as the virus threat moves into top gear.
I've now listened to the CNN interview:
1 @ 03:28 "From a stock point of view we are able to fulfil all of the existing demand".
So a company who's job is to prepare and test for contagious deadly virus spread has been stock building.
- no surprise there, and he does not mention how many extra units he could supply immediately.
2 CFDA fast track mechanism, takes a week, he does not say when the week started, but states he is in discussion about taking the new CE label test through the fast track process, so I assume the week has started.
"RNS - 6th December 2018 - Novacyt (EURONEXT GROWTH: ALNOV; AIM: NCYT), an international specialist in clinical diagnostics, today announces it has received another substantial order for Primerdesign's q16 molecular instruments from a new customer within the fast growing Chinese market. The order for 100 molecular diagnostic instruments has been paid in advance"..etc
Assuming the order was for the Peoples Republic of China, they have 100 instruments already.
Hope? They had 288k of quotes last weekend, and that was before the spread into South Korea, Iran etc. Could easily be over 1m tests sold by now
So we can all agree that the fundamentals for the shareprice doesn't stack up and 6wks ago this was a company with a £9M MCAP.
Therefore it's just the sentiment that's made today's MCAP of £63M in the hope of over millions of sales of these tests.
Please also consider the reputation they will have built and connections. If they have managed to do what others haven’t with getting a kit available. This alone is worth a lot
Acro, Yes but see RNS 13.05.2019.
The Chinese have bought 100 of the q16 models in the past, all they need to run the COVID 2019 testkit, detailed in an earlier RNS.
Yes the other thing as a point of clarity, do NCYT sell the actual equipment that is used to do the tests, not just the tests themselves, I think this adds alot of extra revenue but could be wrong?
Look at Ocado. Do they justify the Mcap or does their tech? It’s the tech. Just like with novacyt. The difference is this tech can stop the spread of a soon to be pandemic virus
Bebeto, please can you explain the fundamentals that would justify a £60m market cap? From my pharma experience, you don’t have to have £44m revenue to justify a £60m market cap, indeed depending on the technology it’s not unusual for pharmas to trade at 10 x ev/sales, given NCYT already have £13m revenue it’s not hard to justify the current cap. And that’s before taking into account the current global spread of the virus, not unthinkable that NCYT could have sold 1m + tests by the end of the weekend IMO
Either way, one of my clients is setting up temporary screening buildings in a large amount of hospitals. I visited one yesterday.
"currently they have potentially 288k tests for quotes."
No, they don't, they had 288k quotes a number of days ago, just after the product was effectively launched with CE certification.
Unless you thinks that form last week's RNA to this week that have had no further traction and absolutely no other quotes or orders.
Why quote a historic figure that has no bearing on where the company is even just one week later.
Thanks Atisha - yes definitely I want to become better as a PI as there is money to be made, so I know not to buy at 190 and to know whn to take some profits ie at 210, but it always seems like we only know what we should have done after the event, when it's too late. Or am I missing something?
Wrong
Amazed by the shareprice today, for the fundamentals to match this shareprice they need to sell 11M tests currently they have potentially 288k tests for quotes. Sentiment has wildly exaggerated the shareprice here.
Acro, the general consensus is that this will head to £2 then £5 with good news. So hold on through the waves and you should be back in profit. One lesson, avoid buying near the top of a rise. GL
gone past the 80's era
Agreed BSHS2L from an investing point of view from on paper £3k up to currently £1k down is really disappointing and that's even after today's gain. Was spiked after averaging up at 190. I'm sure a few lucky traders have been massive money on the way and on the way down, wish I could be one of them. Good luck all.
Enjoy, - its been a tough week, but promises to be much more profitable next week.
sorry, Spinal Tap reference. im sat here djing an 21th birthday party and it's that **** part of the night when they all ask for The Maceraina. I have stocks in NCYT and this bored is stopping me from being bored. Everyones drinking Corona too,,