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Fortune truly does favour the brave... its quite unfortuna8 that the BB has seemingly lost one of its side plot characters. He/she even had BB topics named after them! I can laugh now but I admit they did make me sway (although fortun8ly that ended positively too)
Anyone else heard rumours Fortun8 is connected and is liked alot on LinkedIn and FB by employees of Worldquant? Anyone guess what will happen to 0.80% short... and resultant short term impact to SP?
@Joker99 You describe Porkys forecast as nonsense without explanation ! What each individual would do in the meantime is a different issue. Don't like forecasts or high expectations myself but please have the decency to explain your initial remark.
A little reminder at £8 we were pricing in DCSH 100 million extension which then imploded. The ‘blue sky valuation’ of £36 was if we had won phase 2 with the government which doesn’t look needed now. So those are off the table. The positives are that there are lots of other revenue streams ( some of them could be rather juicy) that were not even on the radar at that point. Airport testing, variplex might see bigger sales this winter if flu makes a return, expansion into another country, mergers. Yes, it’s all jam tomorrow but that’s the challenge to the company, get us some jam today and we might be able to start seeing the higher valuations sooner rather than later. For now I’d be happy with a slow uptick to £6 whilst we sort out the dispute and then let us start seeing the jam today please Graham!!
@milnrowmug I would like to assist you on your valuation questions;
You might be aware that I come from a VERY Bullish position on this. Some here class me as the "resident ramper" I don't much care, you see I have spent hours and hours researching this business, its history in the making as far as i'm concerned.
It's a fantastic business that will reach fair mid cap status (3bn - 6bn) from my perspective. This is why I'm so passionate about it. They have one of the best R&D teams in this sector in the world, they are working solidly on delivering sales supplying to 150 countries, they are shockingly crap at Share Holder communication but ultimately the figures will speak for themselves once the share is properly rated. I hold a £ 54 SP target. I accept this looks ridiculous at the moment with the share price at this level, but i consider the current share price to be less than the "fire sale" value of the company.
A lot here depends on your perspective of the Covid Outlook. I believe that we will have to learn to live with it and variants will keep coming. just like the flu virus we will need to be on our guard and keep updating. Diagnostics worldwide is becoming a VERY important sector as a result. As such i consider revenues will remain high for at least the next four years and within that time Novacyt will further establish itself within other diagnostics related verticals.
The business is doing some great work in Cancer Tumor Testing, New tests in maternity to replace the current invasive tests used during pregnancy at the moment. They are involved in veterinary diagnostics and numerous other diagnostics areas that we rarely discuss due to the heavy focus on Covid but they are diversifying further.
Of course the Covid pandemic worldwide is attracting the most attention, Novacyt are busy supporting the world in this direction. They have the only tests picking up ALL variants. As i say its a fantastic business.
Blackbird Investing considers £ 49.69 (£3.5bn mcap) as his BULLISH top end price for this stock and £ 13.80 as his most bearish position. This was before todays RNS of further product reach.
I have mashed these figures around in numerous ways. Comparing Novacyt to other Diagnostics businesses on other exchanges and i still come back to my bullish rating of £54.
You see what throws the current valuation out at the moment is that the market still does not know how to value Novacyt. Originally it was considered as a one hit wonder and that Covid would blow over quickly hence it was on a cash rating and remains on that. This is about to change as this is no longer the case. The recent framework award for example was on a 4 year deal, reconfirming the LONGEVITY argument. So in my mind a re-valu
Milnrow- yes we know that the company was estimating coronavirus sales to drop off In the second half of this year. When the company release a statement to say otherwise I’ll be pleasantly surprised but all the broker forecasts plan for this. For me the valuation of Ncyt is about what sort of company will be left behind after Covid.
40 million profit a year /70 million shares x pe of 10-20 Is a share price of £6-11
That’s my bottom valuation..... if they start doing the right things and building out future revenues beyond Covid then that valuation can fly higher...
Hydr - I suspect that certain poster will have the last laugh. VERY good luck to her! I think most if not all of us will do very well, even if bought in near the top. Just my personal belief. The usual caveat applies DYOR
Mburns-thankyou. it is much easier said than done. I wish I had followed that strategy and got out at £10 after the double top but I got caught up in it all.
I don’t mind holding good companies for long providing I can afford to double down. But with Ncyt that was impossible as it had grown so big. There was a holder who posted her portfolio on Twitter ( won’t name names ) but I was surprised as their holding in Ncyt was huge (100kplus)....not the kind of cash that most can double down on. I would not have been holding that kind of cash through a drop like that. (I’d be paying of my mortgage) Stop loss would have been on and it would have been well and firmly triggered. But each to their own.
Mac.... rephrase.... keep delivering. Salesman’s mantra.... you are only as good as your last sale.
We know sales are dropping off, if we don’t want sales price to rerate down as it does, then we need to start replacing the Covid revenue with stable and growing revenue streams. It’s all to play for and from today’s RNS it’s sounds like we are capitalising on coronavirus. I’d like to see some progress into other growth avenues though. Oncology for example.
Hydr - you've made a very sensible decision so far, wish I had sold my half as early as you but it's difficult when it's in free fall to make a quick decision, you know the fundamentals but the reality is the fundamentals aren't being supported. Thankfully Mullis did a complete turn around and got an excellent RNS out. I agree this is still an uphill task and I'll be treating it slowly but surely...........
The stock had been in a stage 4 drop up until today and the company had only released very bearish news. I said I would buy back in when sentiment shifted and I jumped back in at 8 on the bell. I had a strategy and I executed, protected my capital by selling out and got back in 50p lower. Happy days. If Graham had drip fed some of this news a week ago perhaps it would have stopped the rot sooner but you can’t blame me for wanting to protect capital. My holding was too large for me to double down so it was either take the loss on the chin or sell out and try get back in lower if the company showed me some confidence, which they have.
To be absolutely honest I think we have a big challenge ahead of us. £6-8 is now on the cards but I could see it selling off with no news. if we want £15plus then the company need to start delivering and communicating on the non DCSH growth. Contracts, airports, mergers and acquisitions