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@Poidster
Grumpy - you must have detected something ? -Lol
Maybe a fortnight of bad weather, e-bay fiddling with their systems, reading this board too often, SAD, or the number of people sadly losing their lives each day unnecessarily.
Can't get over the BMJ stat i.e. ' Every 4 hours as many deaths are occurring in the U.K. as New Zealand has had for the whole pandemic ' - of course, maybe not fair to make a direct comparison but shocking nonetheless !
Woke up grumpy again this morning, but thankfully she's fallen asleep again.
ATB
@trouble, you ok hun ? You seem grumpier than normal tonight
@HarChris
Not sure there's a lack of interest as can be seen when this moves a few % but the doom and gloom is invasive with the same issues flogged to death. Some subtly or otherwise are forever expressing their anxieties and expect re-assurance literally on a daily basis, be it in those running the company or the on-going and seemingly never-ending dispute with the Govt - quite frankly spending a day reading posts on this board can seem like an eternity.
If people still have faith and still see the potential in this company and have invested what they can afford to lose, they shouldn't have a problem.
Perhaps if we've learnt anything over the last eighteen months it's that it's extremely hard for small diagnostics to compete with the major players. How many others have managed to land any deals at all? We went through the worst pandemic in 100 years and yet Omega made a loss in 2020, yourgene made a loss, avacta made a loss, genedrive made a loss. Not only did we turn a huge profit ncyt acted quick enough and scaled up in such a way that they did it without raising a single penny - extraordinary for a company starting 2020 with £1.5m of cash!
They'll be working flat out to ensure they don't waste the advantage they now have over all these cashless competitors. There's an enormous opportunity here still despite all the doom and gloom of this bb and the depressing lack of shareholder interest at the mo.
Harchris....you say they are working flat-out to land big deals! They have only landed one and that was the dhsc, and look how that turned out! Granted they have other contracts, but for a company selling worldwide no other gov has put in a very big order. I think we need to keep it real here...Let's hope the new guy and us getting a foot holding in the USA can change that
Bigyellowpig....you say your a share holder and not bother about another 5% loss, perhaps maybe you don't hold so many shares..
We know one thing for sure is that we all know your deramping this share and trying to scare everyone into selling up.
HillSeeker I completely agree with you about the management's focus being on growing the company and selling products and not the share price. The situation we are in is absolutely unprecedented, I would imagine it's rarely ever occurred to an AIM company. The route from £10m market cap to £b company is a long arduous road that requires placings and financing every step of the way, continuously. This forces any BOD to be actively engaging shareholders and institutions as this is absolute necessary for growth, with each step change in share price more money can be raised and more elaborate projects and expansion can be taken on.
We are sat here still in the midst of the pandemic with £77m+ unused cash - of course the management team aren't going to be around the table saying 'our poor private investors are seeing paper losses accruing, we must act immediately to prevent this' - instead they are going to working flat out to land big deals for the winter ahead. It's a cliche but the share price will eventually catch up as long as the they make the right moves over the next three, six, twelve, eighteen months.
I am starting to think we deserve something from the new CEO however, an hello, a welcome, just something that says 'all is well'. That really shouldn't be too much to ask.
@Poidster
agreed, and no insinuation made. There's no doubt that parts of the management/board were not prepared or skilled for the rapid scale up and the LTIP was certainly not fit for purpose. But, overall, they have done fantastically to be first to market and be selling millions. I've no doubt that their technology is where the future of diagnostics is going to be and, whilst phase two didn't happen as expected, - as you say, there will be other opportunities/ways this can and will develop...
@ Sir_digby
That's because the review is not just about ABDX - the Good Law project are taking aim at the whole of Operation Moonshot.
https://goodlawproject.org/case/operation-moonshot/
The DHSC contract is part of this and, although it may have nothing to do with the outcome - they may not want to settle before then. I can imagine that Headlines along the lines of "DHSC settles to pay millions for goods not received" would not play well for UK Gov whilst the review is ongoing even if it is for a completely different company.
Hill, good points, it was a question from my part and since I bought in ive always had a long term vision so happy (ish) to ride this out but just had a thought that my strategy may be scuppered. With the responses that fear has been put to bed so I appreciate the feedback from everyone.
BTW I was never insinuating that the BOD were complicit in any of this, they are kind a victim of their own success too.
On a brighter note, think novacyt very well placed for this sounds very similar to the disbanded Phase 2, does it not.
If I were in charge of procurement for this project Novacyts name would be the top of the list, its exactly what they were designed for, now even enhanced with co prep, means training and set up minimal.
I reckon if I was a project manger for these labs, I could have them up and running in less than 6 weeks from the start of project
@bluelight....have you finished shorting the share now then? you were very negative on here in the last month or so.....anyone can see that from your post history
@Wilson There is little point in pretending that this isn't going lower and heading towards the low 200p's or possibly into the high 100p's. We just finished at 248.5p....thats the lowest closing price since 11th June 2020. Do I care if it hits the 100p's? Not really, my total loss will be another 5%, hardly matters anymore even if it goes into double digits, something that you find hard to comprehend. Its math's, its not hard to workout. Same reason why it is pointless to sell now.
sorry previous post cut off mid-sentence:
My initial target remains as above, but I will reassess when it gets there, as I estimate we are in the second year of a five- or six-year strategy.
IMO, DYOR, GLA
Why do people keep referring to the judicial review involving ABDX? We have not once been mentioned by any party as being involved in this.
Not only that, being part of the judicial review would not be covered by the NDA between us and the DHSC, therefore the company would be free and in fact compelled by fiduciary duty to inform the market and shareholders that it would be impacting timescales of any resolution.
@Poidster - ref your Q last night:
It is certainly odd that the SP has been so inexplicably low for such a long period, however, I doubt there is an orchestrated move to supress the SP (most reasons given would be illegal). Uncertainty, sentiment & downward momentum has led us here and that has been compounded by apparent BoD disinterest.
There are boardroom issues we are not (and possibly will never be) aware of, but the main problem for us in the short term, as investors, is that management’s time and energy is simply focused on growing the company and selling its products. Putting its foot firmly on the gas and focusing on earnings whilst the currently high case rates exist is, however, sensible. The SP will right itself in the long term and the strategy, after all, is to provide long-term shareholder value.
This does, however, leave us open to low-ball offers. But these would be just that. No ii have any large stakes, when they need to gain 50% plus shares. Whichever way they tried would result in a much higher SP. They need most SH to vote ‘yes’ to any offer. Institutional investors may be happy with lower marginal gains, but with none, they are reliant purely on PI votes. Some PI, who bought in recently at below £3, may also be happy with £4 but my guess is that these are low in numbers and nowhere near 50%.
The majority of investors come in one of two camps.
1. They bought at levels similar to these 18 months ago. They have held on through thick and thin (they could have sold at £12 but didn’t) and are certainly not going to accept anything less than double figures.
2. They bought in at, much higher levels than the current SP and are held in a value trap. Some of these may want out, and would be happy to accept a lower offer of say £6 to £7, but this will depend on their entry price and the majority, I would imagine, would want more than they paid.
Of course, you can secure votes by buying up shares. But, as per other posters, the limit is 30% before a vote is forced. You saw what happened last Friday with a few hundred thousand shares changing hands. Even if you wanted 10%, that’s 7m shares needed. The price would skyrocket.
So, it’s great to speculate about a takeover but, this should be only for positive reasons. If someone wants Novacyt Group, they are going to have to pay for it, and I would stick to £15 a share as where they would end up having to go to get these in the short to medium term. They may need to possibly pay a lot more longer-term if the strategy goes according to plan.
To me, this is a pure waiting game now until significant announcements are made. I’m not expecting the DHSC to be resolved before the Good Law project reports at the end of the year, if it comes earlier, that’s a bonus. But I am hoping to hear of further R&D updates and product launches before then.
My initial target remains as above, but I will reassess when it gets there, as I estimate we are in the second year of a five- or six-
Don't know why they waste their time, must surely be better returns shorting other shares
But alas deaths up on the 7 day average.
Interesting part of a post by Mr Byp on twitter of course he/she/it holds here.
Today we sit at 250p, probably not long until we hit 100p’s.
Clearly here for non positive reasons if anybody has any doubts about this person here it is, for balance the full post.
https://twitter.com/FastMoneyAIM/status/1453367649740726273
Troll all day everyday.
Cases down 4%
Tests down 4.5%
Lets hope D. A.s......plan is close to mr mullis vision.... community testing.... Was always the goal....
My rocket from earlier disappeared…. Sad times indeed :-(
They would indeed and entirely feasible that could happen and fast. Be careful you may disappear again :)))
Co prep and q32 machines in a community diagnostic hub would be a match made in heaven, if a few of these workstations were installed per hub, it would give massive extra capacity in the community in a very short space of time. I hope novacyt are in the offing for this, they are the best of type in this scenario, with the fastest turn around time and highest capacity than any other player in this space
Let's hope Coprep is when he sticks his head above the parapet.