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I just sent this message to PM:
As PM's last operational update was in March this year, investors are interested to know what the status of the company is.
Can you please confirm that PM will issue a RNS as soon as the Exploitation License for Heron 1 is granted and that any other (for the market) relevant information will be communicated respectively as soon as such should arise?
I appreciate that you understand that (not only) PM-investors - particularly in the absence of any operational information - are getting somewhat nervous about PM's standings at this time.
Many thanks.
OJAY
You have to feel for Mike Buck and his team as there is very little than they can either say or do at this point until the Heron exploitation licence is approved. Aside from providing additional information to support the application, they have been twiddling their thumbs since March. They must be even more frustrated than us patient shareholders. If you recall, late last year Mike Buck stated that the 2020 programme would not be affected provided the exploitation licence were granted by the end of March; the implication being that all planning and analyses would have been completed by then. Here we are more than four months later, and he cannot progress with negotiating with PetroChina for the Heron offtake arrangements and related capital expenditures until the exploitation licence is granted. The other uncertainty is whether the border with China will remain closed and inhibit exploration and development activity later this year and, more worryingly, next year. The one thing that perhaps could be considered in these difficult and trying times is some core drilling at the Raptor structures which might provide valuable information at relatively low cost?
I continue to believe that it will all come good for investors eventually.
GKahn
Good decision Ojay. But I am pretty sure that you will receive the same meaningless answer as many others. That Exploitation Licence application is currently making its way through the approval process and in Operational Update in March they expect it will take a number of months for the Government to go through its review procedures. And further updates concerning the process and timing of the Exploitation Licence will be disclosed to the market when appropriate. In the end of the message they will thank you as a valued and patient shareholder who foolishly waiting so long without knowing that they also doing nothing except pocketing your money. Lol
Please let us know if there e is going to be other response. Atb.
GKahn + RokkyRo:
I don't expect my message to unleash a flood of meaningful information. Clearly - and if at all - I will get the usual "PM will as soon as they can" type of message.
What's important however, is that PM's management understands that their investors are not a bunch of happy go lucky DUMBOs - I hope my message has come accross that we are not happy with the quantity and quality of PM's communications. Being silent for almost half a year in the current situation is a clear "NO GO". PM needs to talk!
All of the (other) points in your posts are well taken. I still believe and hope.
ATB
OJAY
I much appreciate your frustration and the good points you make. However, the fact is there is absolutely nothing they can say while they are not in control, or indeed can influence, the keys to furthering the future of MATD.
GKahn
Good to see that you are waking up, Ojay.
It is really time for this BOD as well for Mike himself to show some kind of respect and accountability in front of us. And treat not just that we are some kind of unknown shareholder but long term investors and co-owners of the company.
Lets see what the response will be.
OJAY
While we are endeavouring to remain patient, I thought it might be interesting to reflect on what happened 3 ½ years ago when we saw the share price peak at about 36p in February 2017; and to make comparisons with the situation then to the circumstances prevailing today where the share price has declined about 93% from that peak.
Firstly, it is appreciated that the share price got somewhat ahead of itself in February 2017 with what came to be seen as excess speculation. However, more that two months after that peak the share price was still a healthy 28p or thereabouts. But then came the most disastrous event in PM’s history – the death spiral Bergen deal which virtually assured the destruction of shareholder value by massive dilution, not only because of the substantial number of shares issued to Bergen but also the damaging effect on the pricing of subsequent equity issues. As a consequence, the number of shares in issue has expanded from 287,474,775 in February 2017 to 677,489,306 today, i.e. nearly 2.4 times, and the quality of the share register has deteriorated markedly, a problem that remains unresolved.
As to oil prices: the effect of the current weakness in the international oil price has been rather less than one might think. Brent in late February 2017 was about $56 per barrel versus nearly $45 per barrel today.
So, what else has changed? block IV has been relinquished, but the Raptor prospects in Block V have progressed and Heron is a significant discovery with its potential for early cash flow, subject to a few rather important conditions being satisfied. Accordingly, it may be meaningless to make any comparison until such time as the critical uncertainties are resolved namely: the exploitation licence, an offtake arrangement with PetroChina for Heron production (which is a particular concern) and the border with China remaining open so that operations dependent of Chinese personnel will not be adversely affected. Lastly, PM is financially weak and will need funding, the timing of which will be critical. Hopefully, the company will not entertain an equity issue until such time as the key uncertainties are resolved. I don’t see the exploitation licence as a problem but it is unfortunate that it is holding up progress on the negotiations with PetroChina.
As to a comparison: 28p / 677.5 *287.5 + potential = food for thought?
GKahn: Many thx for your excellent summary/analysis. There's actually nothing to add other than I hate being reminded of February 2017 when - if I had sold - I could've been an investment hero. Well, that's how the cookie crumbles. I'm looking forward to better days.
ATB to you.
OJAY
Many thanks. I recall you being puzzled as to why I hadn't sold any of my 4 million shares in Feb 2017. Given what transpired subsequently, it doesn't bear thinking about!
As I see it, there are two important issues which are beyond the control or influence of PM, ie PetroChina's aspirations v those of the Mongolian government and feedstock for its refinery; and of course the impact of COVID 19 as it might affect future operations. I plan to pen some thoughts on the PetroChina conundrum.
Yes some good points posted, i have had no reply from my email a few weeks back requesting an update. Yes can understand not posting RNS to save costs but still think silence is not good. Even a non affecting SP comment on their Twitter page would help. I see this happening in another share i am in so can't see why PM can't post something. As mentioned before am totally into PM and go with Spainish comments of this month or next month for news. Still believe the delay is due to the governments 10 year plan which includes the oil refinery in those plans, which was due before parliament yesterday but i think put back to next week. IMHO i would think the gov are saying before we give you the licences basically - are you up to the job to be able to feed this refinery - so funding, employing local staff etc etc - will you have it in place. So believe if PM can prove this we will be on a winner - as said IMO - hoping this is the case - ATB and keep our patience
Petrodollar
Many thanks for your comments. I shall revert on the PetroChina/ Mongolia refinery issue probably tomorrow