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Great post - I think the point is that the written chance of success is 20%. However as you correctly said. Why go for this first when you have the only land based well to be drilled in 2018 that Woodmac think worth watching as number two?
Does not make sense and not only that it costs you nearly twice as much.
I firmly believe SL is first because of three things:
1) MB and Co think there is a better that 20% chance of it producing 2) Possibly more importantly it will give an insight into Taats Basin 3) PM have indicated a drill approximately 200m deeper than originally planned which may mean there is a further possibility lower than previously indicated.
All in all - I agree very much it makes no sense to spend a large (relatively) amount of money on something that you feel is only a 20% chance of success.
All IMO but to me there seems to be more to SL than meets the eye.
We all have our own way of playing this, whether it's the Stanley,Fund,Schach or Mr P way, all strategies should be respected.Some will win & some will lose, that's just the way it is on Aim.
May the Best Investors Win !
Good post iamrich, it’s deplorable and quite desperate to be honest to slate the company and almost treat SL as a 100% duster!
I pride myself on being an honest decent bloke who would never want to see anyone lose money in this risky business but to be honest I would take pleasure in receiving very good news out the blue and see you lose a lot of potential profit. Good luck to all genuine LTH and I’m still very confident about success at SL.
Ronin Great posts re drill status, thanks for those. Good night all and here’s to a blue day tomorrow.
You have been using lot of IF and BUTs for a while now.
How about this:
(1) what IF snow Leopard is NOT duster.
(2) what IF Block XX is NOT delayed.
May be the company should simply close shop and return 4p / share cash to shareholders then....???
Mr Fundy, it is very clear that you ate doing your best to persuade people not to buy or to sell so you can jump in at a lower share price, very bad thing to do, we are all here to make money but to cause others a loss I can never do, good luck
Mr P worst case scenario is definitely not priced in, if SL is a duster and block XX drills are delayed u TIL next year then clearly the price will tank, when shorters and huge sellers are in control the price can go lower than your worst nightmares, it went from 37p to 5p when Bergen came in so to say this won’t go lower is crazy it can go as low as the market wants to take it and a SL duster with delayed block XX drilling would take it to 4p imo around a 40% drop
The first well in the campaign is intended to drill the Snow Leopard prospect in the Taats Basin in Block V. The well has two main targets which management estimate has a mid-case recoverable prospective resource of 90MMbo. The well also has three additional secondary targets which provide upside potential including a lacustrine turbidite play fairway which, if proven, could offer substantial upside in the area of Snow Leopard of over 200MMbo. The well will be drilled to a total depth of c.3,350 metres and is expected to cost approximately US$7 million (of which US$1 million was spent in 2017 for purchase of long-lead items). If successful the well will help to substantially de-risk a further 14 prospects and leads in the same basin with a potential for an additional 500MMbo of resource.
Let's throw $7m at a duster.
Duster my a r s e!
Close the shorts folks .... multi billion dollar company about to enter the market.
Can anyone guess what will happen to all those who today chatter endlessly about SL duster if tomorrow or next week SP will jump to the skies and will become clear that stunning large oil field was discovered and in volumes much exceeding the original 90 MMbo? Do you think they will begin insolently to write that they were sure of this and that's what they predicted or will shut up, at least temporarely?
I only expect 10% drop max. If SL was a duster...,being worst case. This never rose pre Spud. In fact down -41% from 12.85p when 10p placing came.
Bad news already priced in as usual market discounts bad news early.
I see tiny downside but 'Unlimited' Upside on positive SL results.
SC123,liked your reply,and the inevitable, I like what I can make of Snow Leopard, if the seismic is confirmed, by the adjacent basins in China,it would be extremely unlucky for SL to be a duster,but the big thing for me,was the research by BG Group,an there chosen drills,and just so much research, but this could be wrong,my faith is that SL will be commercial.
Jndavid,of course SL has not yet been confirmed a duster, my assessment is based purely on the laws of probability,which state that statistically there is an 80% chance of hitting dust at SL.If, on the 20% chance- they hit black gold at SL, then a buying opportunity still presents itself for those quick on the buy button.Yes. it will open gap up but I expect it will still climb higher and then more buyers will pile in for WH,so buying opportunities abound on the back of various scenarios , it's just about how each individual wants to play this explorer.
Good Luck to All.
Donkee, I'm the same as you. This is frustrating. Not sure whats going on with this stock. More buyers than sellers usually pushes a price up. More sellers than buyers usually pushes the price down, I suppose.
But I'd rather read the RNS that tells us what we have or havent found.
Have my holding and waiting to see what they've found.
Sm123.cock a hoop,the duster is your figment,yes a cock can crow,but reality see's the cocks neck cut,and no more crowing,like I said the duster is your figment,hang on,I think mummy's wanting to put the light out.
Mikey, it's dropped 40% on a placing to fund 2drills,so I would think a 'temporary' 40% drop first thing on SL duster is what we can reasonably expect, but fear not,because just as the last of the sellers are clearing, I will begin buying for the WH spud.
I anticipate a quick bounce from the SL duster - so it's fingers on the buzzers and buy in tranches after the initial fall as it's impossible to guess the bottom with one trade.But tranche buying on the lows offers you the best chance of being filled at or near the bottom.
Good Luck to All, Whatever your Strategy.
Dudes & Dudettes,
4.5p is effectively cash (liquidation value) more or less. If company was to close shop and return cash to shareholders.
3p or Half a penny risk per drill for all 6 drills...
Far too many folks painting doom & gloom, to get in lower....well this is fekking low..,
Too many clowns here....
Must be time for a Major re-rate.
40% reduction on 7.5p = 4.5p. The funds accumulated - $7m on SL equate to a SP on 3.2p. I don't believe the PM exploration portfolio equates to an SP 1.3p. Yes this is AIM. Anything can happen and yes if SL comes back as a duster I expect this to drop but not by 40%. This is a decent share with over 90% COS of hitting oil at 1 of the 6 drills planned in 2018/19.
Well said always makes me laugh when ppl talk about morals, everyone invested here is a pure gambler an oil explorer in Mongolia in the middle of nowhere listed on Aim the most corrupt market there is and ppl talk about morals lol, you are gambling make no mistake about that this is not an investment it has no income, no oil reserves no tangible assets it’s simply a gamble on whether the drill bit hits oil. Gambling is for greedy ppl who want to win and when they lose they blame everyone else but themselves, there is no moral high ground if your invested in this share expect to be chewed up and spat out and also expect to be screwed over by MMs, insiders, shorters and whoever else is making money at your expense if SL is a duster they will savage the price and mark it down at least 40% imo and we haven’t even heard if Wildhorse is still on track! Too many uncertainties atm
Gatto, Let's not pretend there are naive investors here who innocently invest their savings on one the the riskiest shares on the planet !!
We are all Greedy Bastards,and that's why we're here gambling on the Wild West of Investment world.
This ain't no dividend payout blue chipper, this is a shit or bust roller coaster and we all know it and most are fully aware they are investing in a small oil explorer that can make then serious dollar or just easily lose their entire investment in the next in a short time frame.
So if anyone here gets scared by what people write, then they shouldn't be investing in Petro Matad becsuse this share is not for the faint-hearted, It could make you a small fortune or you could lose your entire investment.Balls of Steel are a must have for anyone playing this game !
We all play this game differently & we all make up this market, so we are all important be we bull or bear and we should be free to post our opinions/hopes regardless of what they are.
Remember, This is Aim and it takes No Prisoners!