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Victor - Sorry I forgot what I was getting at there, the reason being is that as I said they may have found something and the drill contractor has whispered hey we're interested BUT MATD would be nuts to say "hey Market we may have something" before confirming it because of what happened before when the company said the same thing and shares went to £2 but hey presto it wasn't viable or water. As you said in earlier posts they need to learn from previous errors and I believe thats what MB is trying to do as a new CEO to MATD and not follow in the footsteps as his predecessors, because can you imagine how people would slate him if he spoke to early and it all ended up to be a duff find???
Victor - until they have done EWT they aren't going to know what exactly they have found in volume / quality or even if it's commercially viable and I'm not saying they have found anything, it was just airing ideas but if your drilling contractor who has one hell of a lot of spending power in the E&P market knows you may have found something worth looking at do you not think they might have had a quiet word in your ear??
VerbierDave, That is an Excellent food for thought and certainly very much plausible. Theory at this stage for sure, but what if plays out exactly that way with Sinopec supplying Block XX Rig also. That would be wonderful. Mike Buck himself said in his interview, that they have the flexibility to move things around if they felt $$$ were better spent in appraising SL or WH further in the case of discoveries. More bang for your buck as there are 'Billions' of barrels in these basins to be discovered. That's why Farminees are waiting on both Block IV and V drills ahead of coming on board as this is where the massive Upside is. Block XX is uniquely attractive in its own right and will be drilled sooner or later for Appraisal type drills. They want to secure Farm-In for both Blocks IV and V, and then letting SuperMajors take it from there, while still retaining massive Upside. MATD can then deploy the spare cash and go after Block XX while Majors continue with Blocks IV and V. That is my viewpoint.
Why would Petro Matad lead anyone to believe they couldn’t reach agreement with the rig contractor when really the real reason is because they’ve found oil at SL.
I'm guessing there could be several things that have happened and it could be most people on here with their views aren't far off in one way or another. Having worked with the proposed drilling contractor in the Middle East I know what a nightmare they are to work with and how their admin is well lets say less desirable than you would want let alone the living conditions on their rig sites barff (the toilets OMG gas mask on). So do I think there could have been delays in contracts or them changing their mind because they needed the rig themselves or more than lightly the one they had available had issues more than lightly......... Do I think the reason that MB said they were going to put the drilling back out to tender is because he's realised what a mare they are to work with - yes more than lightly.
However, he may also have had another reason to call it a day on the negotiations and that might be because they had some promising shows worth logging and potentially EWT's on SL. A reason I believe there could be something in this is because it was left so late in the drilling schedule of SL to tell us that XX was a no go for 2019.
How about this for food for thought - MB realises DQ are a nightmare to work with however Sinopec are doing a great job with the SL drill and are also one of the Major 4 that are looking to farmin. Sinopec as the drilling operator on SL know there is a find of some sort and want a slice of the action and tell MB to cancel the proposed drilling contract on XX with DQ as they will bring into country another rig for them to use on XX as part of an overall farmin agreement.
I'm just batting ideas around but you could see how that could pan out.
Who is lying ?
Lets say tender documents called for a 2000 horse power rig.
Petrochina said hey Mike, we have only got a 1950 horse power rig available.
Mike says....thanks but not thanks, out of spec from the tender...........lets do it next year then.
All legit :)
Fair enough pal, I go with what's in the RNS. That's not to say mind that if we find a discovery they may choose the utilise the budget on Block XX elsewhere (where a farm-in partner dictates to appraise)...but if they say it's been delayed because of the rig contract. Then it's been delayed because of a rig contract.
Firstly, what have they predicted with such accuracy ?
Second, why would Petro Matad lie in an RNS ?
Mike You well be right but set against thiss Is what Proselenes clearly stated BEFORE this with detailed reasoning that this is exactly what they would do in the event of an oil find or at minimum potential find.
I have no idea the truth is but I ALWAYS very carefully to someone who has predicted something with spit on accuracy in advance especially what’s they supply detailed logic and reasoning to go along with their arguments🤗
I think if it was due to a possible find they would have just updated us in 2 weeks when confirmed. The reason for Block XX being postponed is due to late changes to the rig contract of which an agreement could not be negotiated.
“Or they have changed direction due to making a find”
That means that Matad lied in the RNS by saying it is postponed because they couldn’t get a rig.
All they had to say was that the drilling schedule had changed and update would be forthcoming.
I cannot agree with you.
I know Matad are struggling with bureaucracy in Mongolia. Mike is an experienced operator, but to fully understand Mongolia and how it all works will take a minimum of three years. There are at least two others on this board that live in UB and will recognise how difficult it is here at times to get things done.
When a business or a project is conceived, the schedule to deliver that is the Project Directors or CEOs primary and daily focus. Four wells was what the company told its shareholders it would achieve this year. The operating overhead to achieve that would I hope be factored into the companies cash flow and budget forecasts for 2018. Because they have not achieved that the business has therefore been inefficient, carried additional cost, and been unproductive. Therefore its very likely the business will again approach the market prior to next years drilling season as it has four wells to drill in 2019, as we now know Block XX will not happen 2018.
Schedule slippage goes hand in hand with capital cost escalation. This years failures simply put add pressure and cost exposure next year, which may impact the share price 2019, as a potential Feb 19 placing is highly likely. More work next year because of the failures this year, likely mean 2019 cost forecast simply needs more money as we have four wells to drill instead of potentially two.
I know you will state we are fully funded for six wells, but that's only if the cash is spent in line with the execution strategy and this and next years staffing histograms. Matad would of carried likely a number this year to deliver four wells. We now have four wells to drill in 2019 instead of two, so 100% more work to deliver next year.
Failure to deliver however if news next week or the week after is positive, changes the picture.
I would however expect contingency to be included in this years schedule and execution planning for an oil strike. The fact Block XX has now been abandoned this year, is either down to the company being unable to deliver against what they have stated to their shareholders, or they have changed direction due to making a find. If the latter does not apply, they need to be completely transparent as to why they failed. Simply put we deserve to understand why.
I know you may view this as negative, but I am probably the only person on this board to permit a major project in Mongolia, so know how to take engineering from China, North and South America, chop and translate data, get this through MRPAM, and into execution. I can also understand very clearly the challenges Matad face. Some may believe they do, but you won't.
Mike and Matad are on a difficult learning curve. If SL comes good, great. At the moment still glass half full, but if there are issues at WH, and "community relations" are on site, that's a massive red flag for me, which I hope are concluded shortly.
Still positive, but need to see an improvement in deli
I was suspecting of bad news regarding Block XX progress for the past few weeks, and my concerns materialized. Yes, it can be spun as good news in the end depending on what happens in the interim, but there was a reason originally MATD wanted to do them this year, and it did not happen.
That said, having invested in Mongolia for many years, I am not at all surprised at this recent revelation. Mike Buck should be given credit for actually getting a significant drill in the ground this year, with perhaps one more to come. He is not incompetent. He is dealing with the Mongolian bureaucracy for starters, and Chinese drill contractors for seconds. I personally know company owners from the west who speak often of how difficult/frustrating it can be to try to do business with the Chinese. Different approaches to what constitutes a "fair deal". Some have even come to the point of deciding it is not worth it to pursue.
The bottom line risk of getting the drills actually done are at least as high as the risk of not hitting something viable assuming those drills happen. From where I sit, I have not seen any evidence of MB being the core cause of the prior risk, and I am going to assume he is pretty good at minimizing the latter. Eyes wide open, I am happy to let this play out for the next year or so due to the potential. If lightning strikes, we may not have to wait a year... maybe just a few more days/weeks. GLA.
Okay, I’ll be positive - I hope we hit oil at SL and drill and hit again at WH !
But I did wonder why they didn’t give more of an update on WH. I could be wrong. But we are supposed to be drilling in September and tomorrow is the 10th. And they did fall down on Block XX.
Same as you, I hope we get some good news on SL. Best of luck.
Victor yes I agree there are people here who post over the top crap as well - must be in before the weekend - will be 20p end of next week - all b*llocks - and you are right to pick them up on it but post as you have below of both scenarios - POSITIVE and negative - I like you are down on my investment - hopefully by the end of Sept we will be in profit - all the best
Victor - If it's not whats in the RNS does that mean we have struck 40 billion barrels of light crude too as that wasn't in the RNS either.........
Victor - If it's not whats in the RNS does that mean we have struck 40 billion barrels of light crude too as that wasn't in the RNS either.........
Glass half full - we have oil at SL and WH.
Glass half empty - they don’t hit at SL and delay WH and Block XX. Or drill WH and nothing. Block XX with a bigger chance of success would have given the SP a much needed boost.
The reason I post the “negatives” is because there are a lot of posters here who post only the “positives” and make outrageous predictions with nary a word from anyone (almost). Anyone for “last chance to get in at this price” ? Ever wonder about their agenda ?
Victor, if you really invested in PM don't panic and do not spread negativity here. WH will be drilled this year. But even if not, after striking the big oil at SL it would be perfectly fine for me, to postpone WH drilling till 2019 if it would be based on strategic objectives. It would allow in calm setting and without any worry of the bad weather or someting else carefully comprehend the whole situation and take the best possible decission on the whole range of the most important issues, including those terms and conditions on which it would be preferable to sign an agreement with potential partner(s). Therefore, all your fears have nothing to do with the real state of affairs in the company. So, calm done mate.
Yep. Quite a lot on paper loss here, myself included, but Company is on the verge of a huge turnaround in its entire history. More positives than negatives here....with mind blowing Upside if all goes well this year and 2019. Fully funded till end of 2019 is the single biggest Plus for me. Not many AIM Oil explorers can provide guidance that far ahead. Most of them struggling with inevitable funding calls near term. We have already crossed that bridge. That on its own puts Matd ahead of the pack. Glass Half full...simples. Strike at either SL and the 5x bigger WH would put share price in a whole New bracket. We have come this far....so just hang in there. If it's too much then sell and move on. Plenty of demand for your shares out there.
Victor, Mike Buck said it before..."Wild Horse is a must drill".... Then SHELL also told them... ..."Make sure you drill Wild Horse"... It's happening...you can panic all you want. What do you think team representatives currently on site at Wild Horse are doing at the moment?
I am also invested but very disappointed in M.Buck's constant goal post moving. Will watch timelines on SL completion closely, as that also appears destined to be late, in typical M.Buck fashion. Mongolia only has a six-seven month drilling season, which the company has mostly wasted.
Victor half glass empty i meant for you
Same as me - on paper i'm down - but why dont you at least show some positivity instead of constant negativity - ask yourself why you invested in the first place - probably same as me as THE POTENTIAL IS HUGE - might be dusters but who knows - you dont i dont - why did BD farmin ? - all these reasons - perhaps give it 2 more weeks and wait for the results instead of always being half glass full
Yes, I’m invested.......and at a loss......as are 99% of investors here.