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Ojay
Thank you for your kind words, much appreciated.
In terms of analysing the export economics for Heron crude, there are a few points on which we need clarification.
Firstly, the trucking costs for the 400km to NE China and empty return, I saw a recent post which mentioned a cost of US$8.00 /bbl. I am not sure of the provenance for this figure, maybe PetroChina, but the estimate looks reasonable. In addition, PC will want a marketing/facilitation fee.
Secondly, we need clarification on whether the trucking costs and PC’s expenses can be treated as recoverable Petroleum Costs within “Petroleum Operations”. I have looked for a definition of Petroleum Operations, but unfortunately the summary of the PSC in the AIM Admission document does not include a definition.
Generally, there has been a close historic correlation between Brent and the Daqing crude price, in which case whichever is adopted as the basis for pricing Herod crude may not be material. However, we need to understand whether discounted Russian crude entering the China market could be a factor in the export negotiations with PetroChina.
Under the Block XX PSC, the Mongolian government has a production share of 40%, managed by MRPAM, plus a 5% royalty which they will likely take as royalty oil. The question arises whether the Mongolian Government will participate in exporting their 45% share given the political sensitivities. If they decline what are the potential implications?
GKahn
Thank you for that GKhan - much appeciated.
However, what investors (incl. myself of course) are primarily interested in are the results of your analysis, i.e. what do you think about these elaborations? In case you may have not (yet) realized: your opinion on this board counts and is highly respected. Many thx.
OWL: RNS 7 December 2021:
“The Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority of Mongolia (MRPAM) and Petro Matad held the first Exploitation Meeting at which it was agreed that the technical details of the benchmarking and pricing of Heron crude should be finalised between the Company and MRPAM by year-end. This will then allow for contract negotiations with potential buyers to begin. Mongolian crudes have been priced benchmarked to both Brent and Daqing crudes over the years. The Heron 1 assay is Brent-like in its chemistry and so Petro Matad is pushing for benchmarking to Brent in discussions with MRPAM and once agreed, plans to do so in the follow up negotiations with potential crude oil buyers early in the New Year.”
As far as I am aware there has been no further update on crude pricing.
You may find the following extract from the CPR in the AIM admission document of relevance despite being historic.
“Petro Matad has advised that any Block XX crude oil production would be sold at the Aershan Oil Gathering Station located in the Aershan Oil Field in Inner Mongolia, approximately 400 kilometres from the block. We are advised by Petro Matad that the crude price obtained at this point for any Block XX crude would be equal to the FOB price of Daqing crude oil less a differential of US$1 / bbl.”
WOS, you seriously must be a bot or some kind of AI experiment gone wrong.
But - STAY SHORT is the advice! Only of interest to traders of course as LTHs are secure in the absolute knowledge of future riches.
"The chance of a BULLISH confirmation that will change the signal to BUY is quite high (from short)".
I prefer total focus on investment FUBDAMENTAL and this is shown in header. People say but need final paperwork sign but this is ONLY reason we have mkt cap so LOW.
This is why say X10, x20, x30 BAGGER potential as company move to FIRST PRIDUCTION, REVENUE & GROWTH.
Do not have time for moaning. Just analysis of investment NOW and ROI in my investment timeframe.
Be Happy & enjoy weekend with smile on face & sunshine in heart because rocket coming soon enough🚀🌞😊
Thornogson,
The fact that I was wrong and does not bother me. As only those who didn't invest can avoid mistakes. But over the time not see those who simply parasitise, like your rogue MB and whom you praise, have to be brainless. Apparently due to your lack of brains you are unable understand how and what sort of crimes he has committed over all these years.
I used to think you were a blinkered fool when you were one of the greatest of the Matadors Manro. Your praise for the company and it's prospects was without end and your put downs of the company's detractors was constant: 'Barking dogs!'
You were wrong then and rather impressively I suspect that you're wrong again now.
I'm not sure Mr. Bowley would agree with what you say - it could get him into trouble.
A few people only, and in particular R. Bowley, are clearly aware that PM and its investors knowingly and deliberately suffered huge financial damage caused by corrupt officials of the MG, as well as crook MB assisting them by constant lie and coverup information from us that was required to be disclosed. And if so, then we, being investors / co-owners, and not some kind of humble and silent sheeps, should unite and go to court, demanding to punish all these criminals and compensate our losses.
Mr GKahn
Will help if you link to info so we can confirm directly & see timeframe. All recent statement have suggest very health financial metric for Petro Matad production / profits so good for investor. Also with oil price projection upward.
Owl: the pricing basis for crude has not been resolved with the Mongolian Government. I recall an RNS of more than a year ago which stated that this was to be discussed, specifically whether the pricing should be linked to Brent or a Chinese marker Crude. There has been no further update on this issue since as far as I am aware. Logically these discussions with MRPAM would relate to the price for crude consumed by the Mongolian refinery when it is on-stream. In the meantime, while crude is exported to China, Heron crude would surely have to be competitively priced against the alternative.
Oil is produced all over the World and it somehow always finds it's way to market to be sold or refined.
Why the worry that Petro Matad will be any different?
Petro China's oil gets there readily enough and Petro Matad with the support and assistance of the Mongolian Government are in the process of negotiating terms with them. I think Petro China will be only to happy to negotiate, make a little extra on the side and keep in the Government's 'good books'?
Mr GKahn this is possible. Whatever way Petro Matad will recover costs from PSC or Refinery who take at 5% discount to Brent
This is best info I can find on this sir
Owl, I think you may be confusing the allowable costs recoverable under the terms of the PSC with what the refinery in NE China pays for the crude on a delivered basis. Petro Matad will not be reimbursed by the refinery in China
Just did a bit of research I to who owns the company that is taking the local governor to court.
No results yet . I WILL post once anything pops up..
It's good that the governor is not just targeting foreign companies, he is taking on local companies.
Magnai Trade is very similar to petrovis. They have forecourts and they are in to oil exploration too.
R. Ganzorig, the mysterious owner of "Magnai Trade" became an honorary citizen of Khentii province
...At this time, when the festival of Khentii province is said to have become a quarrelsome one, we present the patiar of R. Ganzori, a native citizen of the area and a mysterious gentleman. He was awarded the Order of Honorable Citizen on the 100th anniversary of Khentii province. Specifically, Ch. Enkhtayvan of "White Hawk", N. Nyam-Osor of "Ikhgaav" and R. Ganzorig of "Magnai Trade" were awarded with the Honorary Citizen medal for their contribution and assistance in the forest of their province. .
The trucking costs & operating costs which are recoverable under the contracts s you get those back."
12min 30sec
https://youtu.be/AzHbQpedtMI
“Transportation costs reimbursed by Chinese refinery.”
Owl, what is the source for this statement?
Transportation costs reimbursed by Chinese refinery.
I did post interview before with time stamp for this info.
"Profit Margin? The same as that of Petro China minus whatever their cut is for transportation costs."
Well Petro China is state owned, so I'm guessing their terms will be better than what Petro Matad get ;)
One who are NOT clever or do NOT understand Economics or want to MISLEAD will say "Govt want to keep all oil for themself until refinery built".
They do not understand revenue loss from PSC which is basic business sense.
When mr Buck say MMHI, MRPAM full backing for onstream THIS YEAR common sense tell you why.
But BB not known for common sense 😂
Clever one will keep focus on investment for multiple ROI with Petro Matad growth / development 💰💰🦉
Bowley I was reading about the pipeline which has started too . Not sure why they would stop a project that has started and more than a billion spent.
India will throw more money to keep things moving .
Heron oil will generate income for the Mongolian Government and reduce its balance of payment deficit with the first barrel of produced oil. The World's oil needs may well tail off and stop long before the Heron field has yielded its last barrel of oil? They won't get anything for any oil that's left in the ground after this point.
I suspect this year would be their preference, which they've already stated, and what they say does appear to (eventually) happen. I think now the Cabinet decision has been made 'on the nod' no one's going to be minded to be difficult, at least at Government level. How it's going to be implemented at a local level remains to be seen but the Government have control of all the levers of power should they choose to use them.
Profit Margin? The same as that of Petro China minus whatever their cut is for transportation costs.
It's all still looking very good from where I'm sitting.
Mr Master
Good post. I did see news before but did not post. I think MOST reader can see now mr Bowley is fraud with his posting insider info whatever his position is.
Always "source say this" or "friend show me picture" or "President stole all money"
Then we have real news with real top level people but mr Fraud Bowley like to spend time on a BB telling us about Insider Info he say he have.
He still will REFUSE to answer why same Insider info say No Cabinet Approval on special Certifucation until Oct (minimum) on July 4th and then decision made NEXT DAY on July 5th.
Think sensible one know what he up to.
Be happy but do not defend FRAUD 🦉
I am not sure it really matters when the refinery is finished.
Mongolia need the money to pay the soft interest and the loan for the refinery
china need the oil
We get final permit (in time) we drill and hopefully everyone is happy.
So ends this story let us just hope it is not a fairy story.