Petro Matad Share Chat (MATD)

Getting us all excited lol

Petro Matad, the AIM quoted Mongolian oil explorer, announces the issue of 7,954,000 new ordinary shares of US$0.01 each in the Company ("Shares") under the Company's Long-Term Equity Incentive Plan ("LTIP") at $0.01 per share to Directors and employees.

Details relating to Directors are set out below:



Director

Options exercised

Resultant shareholding

Percentage holding of enlarged issued share capital

Mike Buck

4,455,000

8,725,006

1.30%

John Henriksen

1,737,000

3,802,213

0.57%



Application for admission of new Shares

Application will be made for the 7,954,000 new Shares, which rank pari passu with the Company's existing issued Shares, to be admitted to trading on AIM ("Admission") and it is expected that Admission will occur on 3 January 2020.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/MATD/14364576.html

SimonP

I honestly wish I could tell you but I simply cannot. Maybe one day, and I am not evading your question, trying to be smart, or anything else.

Also as Mr P suggests not a political analyst.

Just someone very familiar with Mongolia sharing a view point, which I recognize all will not agree with.

My own guess... he is most likely Political Analyst.

Spanish,you’ve posted quite a long article but you haven’t replied to my question”what work do you do in Mongolia”.Your friend oilfated seems to be very impressed with your extensive knowledge of the country

Oilfated,
I have respect for both you and Spainish. Both of you are living there, so closer to reality, without any doubt.

I was simply disputing his theory, "because it's an election year, not much might get done"...

On the contrary, lot more might get done before elections. Domestic oil production would benefit Mongolia as a whole. Current sitting Govt would want to show progress under their Tenure, going into elections. Otherwise Opposition would pick on that and promise faster action once they get into power, making this sitting Govt look slack. That is politics...each side would want to score points during their election campaign.

It's good to have a debate, each giving their own assessment.

Mongolia government have 50% oil rights in production of petro matad ?

Sums up quite nicely the reality of the operating environment of Matd.Based on MB's RNS and associated public comments I would think it reasonable that the much prized license will be delivered in Jan.2020.Unwarrented delays are in nobody's interest.But time will tell who is corrret.

Mr P.

I just guess people like oilfated, myself and others are just closer to want is actual and not fantasy in terms of what they wish to believe.

In terms of lots of votes being grabbed because Matad becomes visible, this will not even make a ripple.

Mr P - I am surprised at you getting a bit ratty with Spainish. You normally reflect your cheery nickname and you also seem a keen student of the company we all follow.
Spainish was merely pointing out some of the political vagaries of Mongolia, a subject in which he has many years of on-the-ground experience. His information tunnel is impeccable, as far as I know.
Serious investors in Petro Matad on this board would be well advised to take his information and add it to their own data banks, so as to get a better picture of the company
Your observations about the government's attitude to Petro Matad and oil do make a lot of sense, and to a certain degree I agree with your hypothesis. But I also add in Spainish's valuable intel, and devalue your theories to an extent, due to your lack of intimate local knowledge. The background facts he lays out are true.
The conclusions he draws from his information and knowledge of Mongolia are the result of his own thought processes and I can guarantee you he is no dummy or newbie to this game. I cannot see where he has labelled his conclusions as "fact".
If you followed the thread between us (The Big Debate) you would see he and I disagree on only one prognostication. He concludes a certain amount of government inaction over the next 6 months, and my guess is that there will be action. And we are both working off practically the same input into the database.
Funnily enough both his and your logic appeal to me, even though you are half a world apart. But even though I respect Spainish and his experience, I find my ultimate conclusion lines up with you, Mr P.
At least the debate has been a bit better than "the LTH vs day traders", and "5p by Friday" and "wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend" and "AIM is c....p" and the ultimate "dilutive placement just around the corner"
On a lighter note, it may finish up none of the three of us are right!

Spanish,
Sorry buddy, but your thought process is flawed.

Mongolian Govt. Is as keen as MATD to get oil flowing ASAP.

Exploitation licence is granted for 25 years, renewable for another 25 years. Mere formality, in my view, been quite a few weeks already. Would not be surprised if Exploitation licence is granted in Jan 2020.

Even more important for Govt to get this show on the road in an Election year. Lot of votes can be grabbed by sitting Govt as they deliver on the 'Domestic Oil discovery' by a local Mongolian oil company.

In answer to someone point about domestic feed stock for the upcoming oil refinery, Petrovis would be very happy to maintain the FULL supply chain, from crude oil to refined product feeding their Petrol stations, throughout Mongolia. Instead of paying far more for Russian Oil imports. Govt would save over $2Billion in import bill. So things should move much quicker in my opinion than the picture you painted. You might be knowledgable person, like Oilfated, but that's your own assessment..not fact?

Why do you always quote, in the end by saying....just stating facts?

Facts are known after something has already happened.

Exactly.Spanish suffers from (apparently) excessive exposure to conspiracy mania.Why would any party in an election want to undermine the steady progress Matad/MB has made towards the creation of a producing (as opposed to exploration only) company.Mongolia is building a refinery.
The Chinese provided 3D info.Matad is the chosen vehicle for petroleum development. I believe Matad/MB have a reasonable grasp on events. Certainly better that Spanish who never misses an opportunity to inform us how wise he is as opposed to those of us who disagree.In any event time will soon prove whose analysis of events
of events was most realistic.

Hi Spanish,I probably should know this but what is your work in Mongolia.Also I can’t believe that the Mongolian authorities are going to mess around with the permits,they will also benefit from the success of Matd

Sorry Buddy only giving an honest opinion based on fact.

Still awaiting for you to regale the board with your insight instead of belittling remarks.

When you have that eureka moment do please engage.

Is it too late for a career change? Perhaps at the UN or a like and equally pointless level.

Charlatans this way???? GLA

Oilfated.

I am not so sure this time around there will be a rush to get things done.

The government is currently not we knew when a singular party took office. There are significant influences from both parties currently in senior ministry roles.

My concern is that as we know when elections loom the larger corporates align for political position, which if DP and MPP members debate this may mean it gets dragged down into the weeds for a period.

Persistent please enlightened us with your knowledge of Mongolian politics and how you see the various factions, parties, current leadership and other influencing factors playing out what may happen. I would be intrigued!!!

I believe between Oilfated and myself we have probably touching on 25 years experience of Mongolian politics at very close quarters. Hope that gives you a nice warm glowy feeling buddy.

It’s what I do for a living Persistent.

Spanish is now posing as the great political geo-strategist and expert in the inner-workings of Mongolian politics.Clearly more aware than any on the BOD of Matad or MB who is a mere geologist lacking such sophistication.Pretentious nonsense of course.The Exploitation Liscense ia a matter of regulatory approval.MB said that it would be approved in Q1 2020. Probably understands political risk as does BOD somewhat better than some self-appointed armchair expect eager to impress the uninformed eager to be led to the promised land.

GKhan/Spainish
Good points all - but once again the Ivanhoe model beckons. They could not develop Oyu Tolgoi by themselves and eventually bought in Rio Tinto in a deal that benefited all, including the government & Ivanhoe shareholders. That happened after the full potential of OT was revealed by Ivanhoe and an awful lot of shareholder placements funds. The share price reached $21 during all of that period (from $1 at discovery) notwithstanding the major dilution entailed in raising that money. So much for Captain Stirling's boogy man arguments. I, for one would welcome a placement done properly, although I believe we have other ways to find development funds, and in all likelihood will do so.
GKhan - despite the low starting point there will be plenty of chances for shareholders to make multiples on their investment during a takeover or JV. It does all depend on management from here on, rather than geology as Spainish says. I wonder if Friedland would take us on as a pet project?
Spainish - You have been in Mongolia long enough to know that there will be a rush by government to get approvals done over the next 4 months. And done properly so that the next guy in the seat cannot undo them. The paralysis you correctly predict only sets in closer to the election, and afterwards when the new people find their seats and get working.
I can find no mention of oil in the definition of "strategic deposits" and hence the danger of a Government grab of 34%. In any event, Petro Matad hold the resource under a PSC, a different animal than a mineral license, and as such the govt already owns 50% of the oil production and the right to buy the other 50% at market price.
Those production terms, royalties and taxes etc are already contained in the PSC. The exploitation license is merely a piece of extra paper regulating the mechanics of drilling, extraction and production as well as covering environmental impacts.
Finally, it is not as if Petro Matad are the first to find oil in Mongolia. The (so far) much larger fields to the north have already been through the licensing and production processes, as has the smaller ones at Zuunbayan. Mongolia has accommodated petroleum exploitation licenses for over twenty years.

Never a dull moment

What concerns me and no one has yet identified here, is that there is an election in June 2020.

People that have lived and run business in Mongolia will only be to aware that Mongolian politics means it’s unlikely that much will get done as both major parties focus on their election manifestos, until June of 2020.

What again some of us know even after an election it’s normally six more months before business as usual returns once a new government and cabinet has been formed.

With an election in June, Naadam in July, unless the question of the Matad licenses is finalized prior to June it’s unlikely politics will reconvene until September at the earliest.

With power sharing a likely outcome in terms of the next election between the MPP and DP, what may appear a simple process, I fear will get bogged down, certainly become a focus of political attention, and take significant time as political powers position oil in Mongolia as a key driver for the country which may place Matad as a small pawn on a rather large political chess board.

In terms of Chinese investment, it’s an option, but not GoMs immediate focus. You also have to consider if GoM classify any asset of Matads as strategic, they could well look to retain a 34% stake holding in the business.

This will not be a simple process.

GKahn, your post at 11:48am today was really interesting - good point rise and could happen any time now.
If they announce a T/O we will missed the major rise and potential of the Company.
Petro China can offer (let's say 50p) and how much our assets will worth in 2 years from now with production?
The License Exploration will be the key to unlock many opportunities out there from the Big Oil Companies.
Thank you
Obelix

Oilflated
I do agree that a takeover battle for Petro Matad would certainly result in a major premium to today’s PM share price. The problem is that the starting point, i.e. today’s SP is very depressed, and the company does not have a quality shareholder base aside from Petrovis which holds about 25% - down from more than 50% as a result of dilution. Surely, the government would like to see a stronger player unlock the oil potential, particularly as it wants feedstock for the new refinery; moreover, Petrovis is interested in the refinery offtake. Food for thought?
GKhan