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We’ll soon be in another full lockdown... Get ready after Christmas
Market will get hammered I think.
Mars 67-68p.
I’d imagine the whole market will be down tomorrow & marstons will probably follow
but from marstons perspective tier 4 doesn’t look much different from tier 3 I think
takeaway is still allowed?
Affect us tomorrow anyone? I'm expecting some degree of retrace.
Hi Jim, was the natural flow of the share, it had been tanking all day, and once the buy/sell ratio switched it was going to be a race to the top to avoid losing the lower price. I got in just after 3pm when the turn become apparent.
Best of luck everyone, and hope you all have a good weekend.
I hope it works out for you Daave. Maybe there is some way for you to offload some of your stock to help mitigate some of your issues.
All the best for you.
I confirm that. The owner of that site charges a fortune to be able to view this gossip though.
https://twitter.com/bharringtonw11/status/1339973456402767875?s=21
Betaville released an uncooked alert on Marstons - as of 330pm Friday.
I did actually manage to catch the bounce...surprised myself on that...lately I seem to have 'the kiss of death' just wondering how you realised it was building Claire... Do you have access to level ii ? Just curious is all...kind regards...the jimbo
SP's are ''forward thinking'' and they reflect the situation 12-18 months time. There is every reason to believe things will be good at that time. However, if there is another lockdown next year because of a ''Christmas spike'' then we could be down from here to a new low and then the rise will be a lot slower.
Price rising before weekend
Some of the long gains
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/18/virus-drives-healthy-lager-sales-wipes-180m-makeup
Carlsberg Group in UK
Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company is one of the newest, historic brewers in the UK. Formed out of a joint venture between Carlsberg UK and Marston’s PLC, who are both shareholders, the brewer combines over 300 years of shared values, history and heritage in UK brewing.
The brewer provides its customers and consumers with an unrivalled portfolio of lagers, ales and craft beer brands from the very best of two master brewing teams, plus those under license from valued partners. These include lagers such as Carlsberg Danish Pilsner, Carlsberg Expørt and Poretti; premium cask and packaged ales, including Hobgoblin, Marston’s Pedigree, Tetley’s, Wainwright and 61 Deep; brands under license including San Miguel, Mahou, Estrella Damm, Shipyard, Erdinger, Warsteiner and Kirin; a broad selection of alcohol-free beers; plus distribution of the Brooklyn Brewery and London Fields Brewery craft portfolios.
Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company also owns and operates a brewery and distribution network across the UK, including the Carlsberg brewery in Northampton; London Fields in Hackney; Marston’s in Burton upon Trent; Banks’s in Wolverhampton; Wychwood in Witney, Oxfordshire; Jennings in ****ermouth, Cumbria; Ringwood in Hampshire; and Eagle in Bedford; plus a National Distribution Centre in Northampton and 11 UK-wide distribution depots.
Daave
I know I am not alone on this board in thanking you for your time to give us your thoughts which are, to investors, valuable information. From what you say about the bigger picture it looks to me like the stock might be a little bit ahead of itself at present.
Thanks again, & very best wishes that you, & us, come out of this tunnel soon.
Daave
Thanks for your insightful post. It confirms what many of my industry contacts have and are saying, some have already given up.
Seems to me even though Brewery chains have /are reducing/suspending rents , Licencees are struggling to survive. Ultimately property owners will reveal, in disclosed Financials, the true extent and damage this dammed Virus is doing.
Thanks and Best of Luck, can only hope 2021 will be much improved.
GLA
Strange one this more areas in lockdown yet this rises ? Might we see a £1 again next year at some point .
Daave - all my best wishes to your pub, you and your family.
The furlough scheme looks after the staff (and anyone who is running as a LTD company as employees)
But, the costs of the overheads is not met by the government’s grants, pub companies are charging reduced rents on many pubs
The lower rent and the grants do not cover the costs of running my (relatively small) pub even when closed, I am now subsidising the costs from my personal savings.
The self employed grants that anyone self employed can claim do not apply to many pub landlords who have been in business less than a couple of years.
I have been in the cellar today checking the dates on the barrels I have.. most are ok till the end of February - if we get close to that date and I have to tip it all away - there’s thousands of pounds of stock. I’ve lost about £2000 worth already
I’m in a position where I can ride this out for a while, there are a hell of a lot of pubs that will not survive
Big pub chains could be in a totally different position, but I doubt it
I’m in tier 3 - people in tier 2 are reporting higher operating costs and unpredictable levels of trade. The country is crying out for reductions in tier but I’m praying they don’t put us down to 2.
I’m not Daave (spelling?) but there is another factor that explains the rise.
If you look at a chart, you will see that the SP tried to break several times 72 since mid November, the first two waves ending as big pullbacks.
The third wave was a little more gradual and allowed for more accumulation of shares than the previous two times that were more abrupt rises, suggesting those were “bubble-like” rises that could petter out fast.
This last rise was a little slower, suggesting a bit more sustainability and gas in the tank left for a final push through 72p to where we are.
Postage
Perfectly true, but this is surely more sensitive to covid than Brexit currently ?
Also it has outperformed the market today which is why Daaves input is invaluable as to furloughs influence.
Important thing at presnt is a low cost base and being able to stay in the game for a year or until progress starts to emerge ?
There’s a Brexit deal in the offing as well - that Sunday deadline came and went and they’re still talking. Both sides do not want a no-deal so I’d expect a last (and I mean last!) minute agreement.
Good performance today.
Any day now we should hear that the Oxford vaccine has been approved.
This announcement will surely give our SP a big leg up!
I'm hoping we might see 80p+ by the end of the year.
Daave
You are closer to the costs of running hospitality venues than many of us on this board, would you agree that the increase in the furlough timescale probably accounts for the strong price (over & above the market) today ?
That is my take on it but as you are at the pitface, so to speak, I would value your opinion please
chubby don't forget Carlsberg are senior partner in the Carlsberg Marstons Brewing Company.
Prime for a larger brewery buyout.
When you see how hieneken, etc wiped out all the independents in Eastern there is money out there
Lots of auto sellers and the price is holding, is someone collecting all these shares for a large purchase in the background?