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@Pmoran. Yes, that sounds like an accurate assessment of the state of play. it's still early doors and a more detailed assessment of the detail is required, and of course, the numbers which will of course take time. Sit back and wait for updates to see what transpires and make our decisions from there would be my strategy.
Thank you Pmoran1969, that's what I thought only the way some were reacting I thought I had missed the price offered.
Nothing is for certain in this game.
Unsolicited offer made to the board who are reviewing it. It seems that the market got wind (don’t they always) so on Friday as speculative share purchases pushed up the share price the board issued an rns confirming that an approach had been made.
No mention of price from the board. No speculation as to the price in U.K. or US press over the weekend and no further rns from the board this morning prior to market open. So what the offer is and what the likely reaction will be is pure guesswork at the moment.
I’m not sure what to make of that. Could it be the offer made was on the lowish side so the board are formulating an outright no response? Maybe the offer is sufficient to prick the ears of shareholders but, in the opinion of the board, doesn’t take enough account of our future value? Or perhaps the offer is generous enough for the board to recommend it to shareholders but they need a day or two to pop over to Copenhagen and work out how such an offer would work with our new partners?
So now we wait and see and perhaps the first indication we will get that anything is about to happen will be a jump or slide in the sp.
Have I missed something here because I haven't as yet seen a takeover price unless I am going blind, anyone please ?
Or is this going to be another AA deal and offer say 75p.
is 60 this month(Jamuary) could it be a handsome Pension??
I know that with whatever share you own, everyone sees something like this on the cards from time to time, regardless of how remote the possibility.
Opportunistic perhaps, or a genuine offer with some kind of game plan?
I know that with whatever share you own, everyone sees something like this on the cards from time to time, regardless of how remote the possibility.
Opportunistic perhaps, or a genuine offer with some kind of game plan?
London any holder of more than 1% can and do make a declaration when a bid is in process.
AS already stated there will be other Shareholders, above 1%. Expect further declarations, over coming days. It is quite normal and nothing to do with a New holding.
Thanks for the insight.
In that case, LSV might not be a new position given the holding is less than 3%.
We only know that 5% of the total share capital were bought and sold on Friday.
@ Barchid.
Yes, I've always tried to be reasonable. I don't see any point in being rude or @rsey. you achieve nothing, other than getting up people's noses with that. All of my previous thoughts on here were just my opinions, based on what information I had available to me at that time.
As for the chap from PAS, well, he did seem to fade into the background fairly quickly didn't he.
I'm still of the opinion with him that he was fishing for something. what that, and his motives were still remain to be discovered. That said, I neither know or care of he achieved his goal(s).
All the best to you.
Parsley2. Something might well be brewing but the NFU position is not a new position taken out as a result of the possible take over they are merely reporting what shares they already have.
As I understand it anyone with more than 1% of the shares in a business need to declare their holdings when a company is subject to a possible takeover stating what their position is at the time of the initial offer so we should expect to see a number of these declarations over the next few days.
Barchid, thanks, the deal is not yet done.
It is puzzling to see a VC group making a bid, they usually look for value in assets and break-up ( asset strippers), US Funds are known for it. The puzzle being Carlsberg's agreement requires Marstons retain 50% of their Pubs, is Platinum aware ( they must be) or do they have other ambitions for Marstons Pubs which will fit the JV agreement, unless they (Platinum) know of some weakness within the agreement.
Platinum could be a "Stalking-Horse".
Whether my mascinations have any validity remains to be seen.
We are going to be here for a while yet. The first bid is rarely the last.
fairdealer
If a bid does emerge and goes through I will miss your knowledge of the industry when this board closes when the quote has gone. I suspect though, that Platinum have weighed up the chances of success by "going early" and have very possibly made a few of the bigger holders "insiders" already to assess their likely support or not, that is the most common way leaks like this appears to have been emerge.
My guess is the II's will do a dash for the cash largely due to the debt/valution issues you point out, would be very surprised if this were to be contested, for those same reasons.
Trent
Your response was spot on, the many times you have been on this board you have always been both courteous & accurate, as an aside I wonder what that old cove at the Pubs Advisory Service will be thinking with his underfilled barrels ?!
Fairdealer - thanks for clarifying. So book valuations are historic.
Beer Stalker, read the notes attached to annual report. It is correct an Official ( RICS ) valuation is required Bi-ennially, an Official valuation was due in 2020 however rules were relaxed because of COVID
This is a very well run company with a great future and if the management are considering their proposed offer it must be a decent one . They have only just recently sealed the deal with Carlsberg which was a fabulous deal , if the price wasn’t substantial they would have just dismissed it. I feel their statement was to let the world know they might be interested in selling at the right price, this has only just started and should be an interesting few weeks .
Hi Fair,
Agreed, I don't know the fair value of the brewery properties, however I also excluded cash which should also be deducted from debt.
Under IAS 40, you are not required to independently value the properties each year, however I appreciate your point of Director valuation bias but the auditors signed off the accounts which is particularly tough in this uncertain environment.
Further evidence of upside can also be gained by the near 5% share purchases by two big players as evidenced by the recent RNS'.
I can only state how I see it and I could be completely wrong.
Thanks
@Fairdealer
Where do you get the idea that public companies can rely upon Management’s valuation of their freehold property assets. To my knowledge, they are required to be revalued regularly, externally in accordance with IFRS Standards, with strict guidelines required by RICS qualified Registered Valuers.
Correct.
But, with the Vaccination process in full swing, and fingers crossed less restrictive living in sight, will the Pension funds even consider such an opportunistic bid?
They're already in, why not reap the benefit of recovery themselves?
London you may wish to re-examine the numbers.
Loan notes amount to £816m
Buildings valuation as at 3/10/20 included Breweries and distribution properties transferred to CMBC in November.
Marstons have a 40% interest in CMBC
Property valuations done by Management and not Professionally signed ( values could be higher or lower)
NAV is circa 72p.
Your figures look great but will they stand up?
Buying a business now when it has ‘no sales’ is ideal if you expect it to have sales in several months time. If you wait you’ll end up paying considerably more. Ideal time for these sorts of bids imho.
Yes, you're right Parsley2.
I'm under no obligation to justify anything to you.
Have a nice weekend.
I bought in at 68 some while back. I see some expect those who bought in sub at 75 to be happy with a 40% uplift. I don’t think that is correct and assume others in a similar position to me feel the same way. When I bought in, the investment was too risky for a lot of investors. I am hoping that my reward for that risk is that this will double, and would be prepared to wait for that. If it is sold at 40% uplift to my purchase price, I won’t be righting it off as a failure however. That’s my honest position.
Good morning all,
I've valued the pubs based on the fair value of the properties because that part of the business is loss making and have valued the brewery part based on the recent merger. All figures have been taken from the Annual Report for year ended 3 Oct '20 and I've excluded normalised working capital balances which would not be deducted from the EV.
(£m's)
Buildings FV = 1626
Assets held for Sale = 350
Brewery Business (40% share) = 312
EV = 2288
Bank Borrowings = -270
Securitised debt = -716
Sale and leaseback obligations = -362
Total = -1348
Price = 940
Let's say the offer ends up at 750m because the P/E firm would need their upside, this would translate to a share price of £1.14.
I hope this helps and it's going to be an interesting month especially if another bidder enters the fray.
Thanks
Peaks.....spot on. There are a few long standing investors here who have the financial future of the company at heart, Trent is one, not a Johnny Come Lately.