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I think they look like futures.
Even at $20,000/d and 70 days = $1.4m. I still can't imagine it takes 4 ships to get to $10m though...
Roughly $20m in ore sales for the 3 shipments. Max $4.5m shipping costs and It looks like the $10m includes 10% to the banks also so I shouldn't have deducted it.
We're at > $15m there so minus port and ore movement costs guessing no more than $1-2m , consistent with what Kiran said, it can't be more than 3 shipments for me.
($2.5m creditors +$1m banks + $6m Studies + $0.5m working capital)
"The first portion of the net revenues shall be used to pay historic small and employee creditors (~US$2.5 million), after which approximately US$ 6 million of the net revenues will be used to begin recommissioning studies on the Amapa Iron Ore Project. The remaining net revenues will be used to provide working capital for the operations and payment against the outstanding amount due to the Bank Creditors."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/first-iron-ore-shipment-from-amapa-since-2015-tc6c4vu5xq87xj0.html
As I said @EV_Bull. 3 shipments is more likely than 4 IMHO, but when @Kiran said 2-3 shipments I took that to mean after the shipment that had already been shipped. i.e. 3-4 shipments, so it could be close that in practice 3.2 is needed. Where did he said 2-3?
By the way, if you haven't guessed, I'm trying to temper my own enthusiasm in the absence of @Bannor. LoL! Surely the deal is imminent!
imminent is open to interpretation.
From our perspective the RNS could land at any time. This is my definition of imminent. Something which is imminent could take years in practice.
Well the deal is happenin whether its tmrw next week or week after we know this deal is a done deal, KM knows exactly whats going on and where we are, so I'm sure his ordered the ship/s accordingly
yes... with #11 now booked in for august... that’s over 35% of the 1.39mt stockpiles going out...
@observer842
imminent - say it fast sounds more optimistic 'in a minute'
might be worth trying at 6:59 one morning soon.
A friend of mine who works in shipping pointed me to this index on the Shanghai Shipping Exchange.
https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/fdinew2.jsp
Recent fixed charter examples could give relevant shipping costs, e.g.
Tubarao(Brazil)—Qingdao( China) 170000/10% Iron ore $/ton 25.863 -0.246
This implies a rate per tonne for the entire journey, rather than (or perhaps in addition to?) a daily rate for the ship itself. My friend specialises in container shipping so couldn't clarify this any further.
That's a great addition @Tradecraft. Corresponds reasonably well with the custeel price differentials I shared yesterday, and I guess is just one of many contract types which are available!
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date 62% Fe domestic fines(US$) Seaborne index 62% Fe fines
2021-05-20 193.32 208.60
2021-05-19 193.31 214.60
2021-05-18 192.40 223.60
2021-05-17 189.49 215.60
]===
This clarifies the question I think:
https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/introduction_fdi_new.jsp
"Form of index: FDI publishes in a combined form of voyage charter - VC (U.S. $/ton) and time charter on trip basis TCT (U.S. $/day), and it includes the rates of daily charter rate on 6 TCT routes and freight on 14 VC routes. The daily rate for 6 TCT routes will be released in "USD/day" and 14 VC routes will be published in "USD/ton"."
So a charter rate will be fixed either by USD per tonne or by USD per day, but not both.
Incidentally, I think the (English speaking) press pay too much attention to the seaborne price when commenting on the swings of iron ore prices, when in fact its the China domestic which is most important. This is because the former includes the swings of shipping costs, whilst the latter less so... You'll see it's been rising fairly consistently - same as previous post but more data:
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date 62% Fe domestic fines(US$) Seaborne index 62% Fe fines
2021-05-20 193.32 208.60
2021-05-19 193.31 214.60
2021-05-18 192.40 223.60
2021-05-17 189.49 215.60
2021-05-14 188.21 209.40
2021-05-13 186.15 217.50
2021-05-12 183.41 233.50
2021-05-11 179.05 228.60
2021-05-10 172.66 229.60
2021-05-08 171.24 212.10
2021-05-07 169.57 212.10
2021-05-06 167.21 201.80
2021-04-30 166.27 187.00
2021-04-29 165.43 190.80
2021-04-28 163.74 190.70
2021-04-27 162.91 193.70
2021-04-26 161.56 191.50
2021-04-25 160.97 185.30
2021-04-23 160.62 185.30
2021-04-22 157.73 183.70
2021-04-21 156.99 185.70
2021-04-20 156.22 187.70
2021-04-19 152.40 181.00
2021-04-16 151.96 177.70
2021-04-15 151.15 177.20
2021-04-14 150.70 172.60
2021-04-13 150.36 172.30
2021-04-12 149.26 172.90
2021-04-09 148.90 172.40
2021-04-08 144.98 172.30
]===
OBS 21:51 Thurs..... I decided to let all the rampers & posters have a free run of the board without my input to see if you could push the SP up over 30p.... doesn't seem to be working though as we're drifting lower again - just goes to prove how much influence on the SP these chat boards have i.e. NOWT.
Morning most :-)) .... had visitors all last week but if there's another Zoom call I might give that crack.
morning bannor is that the yap of the day, know ramping is not working at all due to the history of kdnc, even l tried with my 60p lol" l try again if they ever get past the post?
looks like c:25,27,31 = ultimax... but running about 3-days late...
could be the reason mv paused for a moment...
LoL @Bannor. I don't know about other rampers, er, I mean promoters of the company but I certainly don't want the share price to go over 30p when I've decided to continue buying on the back of all of the (circumstantial) evidence I've posted which indicates the deal is about to complete! I share in the hope others will tell me where I'm wrong and to improve my understanding from what others share in return - I had to rely on my own devil's advocating last week without you around to temper my enthusiasm which just looks like flip-flopping to the untrained eye when in fact I'm quite confident we are practically there! Too much coincidence IMHO...
@tomcat - try again, which will be hard as it hasn't set off yet! It's not too far away... ;-)
By the way it's currently: MZ: 22,23,27; C: 26,27,31; MV: 29,31,04. All subject to change...
MZ Heading for river mouth..
https://shipfix.com/ship/medi-zuoz_IMO-9789910
MV.. ETA 7 days
https://shipfix.com/ship/marlin-v_IMO-9668398
It's going to be a busy time round here if the deal closes in the next week or two so I thought I'd get the port watching links shipshape in preparation ;-)
================
Public port images
-------------------------
MEDI BRISBANE in pier 1
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2021-05-08&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
OSIOS DAVID in pier 1
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.06071&lng=-51.16732&time=2021-03-29&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A
High resolution, but unknown date:
https://satellites.pro/Brazil_map#-0.061670,-51.167402,19
https://what3words.com/rare.then.moats?maptype=satellite
Private port images
--------------------------
https://what3words.com/hugs.admires.respects?maptype=satellite
Stockpiles:
https://what3words.com/forecast.screamed.massive?maptype=satellite
https://what3words.com/happy.tractor.bunch?maptype=satellite
As pictured here:
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Port-South-1030x572.jpg
Port schedules & ship tracking
----------------------------------------
https://serveporto.com.br/atuacao/macapa-ap/
https://www.myshiptracking.com/ports/port-of-santana-in-br-brazil-id-6679
https://www.vesselfinder.com/ports/BRSAN001
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?recognized_next_port_in|begins|SANTANA|recognized_next_port_in=2476
https://www.fleetmon.com/ports/santana_brsan_2955/
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/operacional/programacao-de-navios
https://shipnext.com/port/santana-brsan-bra
https://shipfix.com/ship-directory/1
Analysis & prices
----------------------
https://compassmar.com/reports/Compass%20Maritime%20Weekly%20Market%20Report.pdf
https://www.dnfanalysis.com/CMS/imageFolder/1621268017.pdf (Anyone got a link that doesn't need updating?)
https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/fdinew2.jsp
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html
http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=i
Social media
-----------------
https://www.facebook.com/docasdesantana
https://www.facebook.com/Serveporto
Episódio 14 out now... Trains graveyard at Porto Planton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=beAjP7A-Tyk
@Bannor - I am so looking forward to seeing you if you get on :) Likewise few others