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I see they worked that 7.5m buy @2pm.
MMs played a blinder today.
Let's see what next week brings.
To spend £265, 000 on ecr with all the other hot places to put it at the moment,, someone has not only big cash to spend but big confidence in this Co.
You don't spend that cash unless you really know something ahead
Rumours on the old twitter are someone "called" someone in The company who confirmed updates on JV and drilling "next week"......... If only eh lol.
Hopefully CB has listened to the share holders and something of value comes out the ECR camp for a change.
We shall see, im still looking at 4.5p short term..... If news is out next week and its positive it will be much sooner.
Enjoy the weekend ladies and gents :)
Have a good weekend Gino and everybody.
How are people currently feeling about ECR? What are peoples near term and long term expectations of the company ?
From a personal stand point, nothing has changed. I’m in long term and I want ECR to be that life changing company for me. The kind many had when GGP came knocking. I’ve been buying the dips and building as strong a position of financially possible. I’ve sold my ARB (twice) after making healthy returns and pumping it all back here.
I just feel when we eventually hear an RNS, it has to be good news regarding Creswick. The last couple of weeks you can see investors have become inpatient and the price has retraced back to 3.4p. (They’re no loss long term if they can’t sit on their hands for a little longer). But If it’s another 3-4 weeks without news or a no deal at Creswick, we are straight back to the 2-3p zone for the time being.
Restrictions have seriously halted the company in Victoria but since an interview form CB back in March 2020, the only real progress for me is the drill rig purchase, now stationed at Bailleston.
The board at ECR have a unique opportunity to unlock shareholder potential here on 2 enormous fronts. I, as well as most of you am eager to hear about a Bailleston drilling campaign, marked for the next 12-18 months. A campaign itself which will not only add value to the market cap, but will strengthen our position in terms of future JV talks and negotiations.
I believe we will hear a JV announcement about Creswick within 4 weeks and then it’s take off time. First target 10p which would still be a market cap under £70 million. Then an RNS about drilling having commenced at Bailleston and it won’t be long until we’re over £100 million
In 18-24 months, if ECR are deadly serious about these two licenses, I see no reason why a £1 a share valuation is not achievable. I’m hoping in 12 months we finalise a JV deal at Bailleston too, freeing up the drill rig to go and test Tambo
Fingers crossed, but we have an unbelievable 2021 ahead of us, stay patient, keep the faith and buy ECR :D
Well written post AG - certainly feels like your timescales are in the right place. The thought of having a JV on Creswick and Bailleston in the next 12 months is both likely and eye-watering with the consequences on the SP.
Short term price action will be interesting. Personally, I don't see a retrace to 2-3p if we end this month without any updates at all. I do hope for an oppertunity to top up down there though. Personally I expect it to hold this channel for a bit and perhaps regress to 3-3.5 if impatience really comes in. Would be interested to see some realistic chartist's views on it. Kind of miss some of the sensible chartists on Twitter (AntMwah, if I recall correctly?). Doesn't really matter in the short term to me anyway, but it's good to know levels to expect.
Have a good weekend all.
Definitely tb, and yeah 2 JVs, both at licenses with proven grades, endless potential.
I can't see 2 JV done hence we bought drill
Some good summaries below and here's my view for what it's worth.
Let's face it the drill has taken longer than originally anticipated to get up and running and the market doesn't like delays - put on the positive side it has presented an opportunity to take a stake here at a cheaper entry point. I've chose not to sell anything as firstly i'm ultra long, and secondly news can land at any moment.
With no recent news/interviews the impatient will sell, and others will worry - add in the slight pullback on Friday on Gold and crypto going boom and lots of money has been moving into that. This is great for the wider market and believe me that money will pour back in. Gold will soon be the new flavour and will continue throughout this year. The problem most new investors will find is Thursday/Friday they will sell down positions to chase crypto after watching rise after rise, then once their original investments and gold stocks start to become back on they chase back at a higher entry. Weeks like last week are where you make your money on the markets.
As for ECR - I have no doubt there's a lot going on in the background. CB and team aren't ones for RNS'ing everything little thing that happens "we've had a site visit".... "we've attached one of the new drill bits" etc. etc. - but when they do RNS I have no doubt it will be full of lots to get us excited, and realise nothing has changed other than everything progressing as planned.
I have a sneaky feeling next week there will be some updates to get us back over 4p. Followed by another CB interview :)
On the 2 JV fronts you won't see that short term. Creswick is a monster and a JV will get done that I am sure. The question you have to ask is will it be a good JV? Well we know CB doesn't let things go for cheap and he's focused on shareholder value so it's in good hands there.
Bailieston will be drilled by ECR - then down the line I think certain areas will be JV'd whilst focus moves on to Tambo. Great business model when you think about it - gather licenses, drill yourself to add value, JV, rinse and repeat.
I agree that the chances of 2 JVs are remote in the near term.
Craig has stated he dies not want to trigger AIM article 15 which 2 JVs would do at this stage.
Proving up Baillieston will massively increase the potential value if any JV and hopefully we can also add more licences which would enable a 2nd JV without invoking article 15.
Think we will see more support around 3.5 and will have a flight uptick. Some chunky buys were worked at the fund of the week and would be good to find out who offloaded and who picked up the 12m trades on Thursday.
I'm still long and strong.
Exactly will it be a good JV
Rodney69 - couldn’t agree more and the money will come flooding back sooner or later. Seen a lot of PI’s on Twitter and a few in person that invested into ARB and crypto, most can’t tell you the first thing about it and are just following the boom
Dill - the 2 JV reference was meant 12-18 months down the line. It is a likely possibility. We do have our own drill which will be turning non stop I’m sure at Bailleston pulling the golden nuggets out of the ground. But if Bailleston is as big as we think, we’re going to need a lot more than one drill turning. That’s where the JV comes in providing: funding, finances, expertise, drilling equipment etc and that’s how they earn their 40/50/60/70% of the project.
But for now, we can plod along nicely and prove those grades up ourselves as 2021 passes us by, further strengthening its position.
And when in the long term we have 2 JVs on the go, we don’t simply throw the drill away. It’s an asset for life and can move onto Tambo or contribute to the exploration at Creswick and Bailleston.
Forget about the rise GGP has had. I’m talking from this point on, I don’t see another junior mining company that has the potential we have here with ECR. And other PIs will be looking at this as a ramp and see their company as a better option, and that’s fine. But I’m pretty sure this will take off. It might be next week, it might be March but it’s coming :)
Completely agree. Even more people buying into the crypto explosion at the moment. Much like the first bitcoin wave at the end of 2017 I expect it to crash as sharply as it grew. I think come spring this year there will be lots of people looking to make their money back. I anticipate a lot of them will flood into smallcap AIM explorers.
In comparison to those companies, the one thing you can strongly argue now is that ECR and its market cap are very undervalued. Although we are waiting an influx of company changing news, 2 licenses, outside interest and a recent history of golden nuggets, it should grow nicely from this point
Hate talking about other companies on here but I like how it relates back to ECR. ARB recorded revenue in November and December of 1.4/1.6 million respectively but has a market cap of over £360 million!! That’s insane. If has the capacity to expand but how long can these valuations last for, it made me think twice. A lot of money from across the AIM moved over there last week, I can see a lot of it coming back once the gains dry up
Nice to see Gino on Twitter. No nonsense says it how it is :D and rightfully so. The company sounds transformational from years gone by, however now is the time to push on and turn this “potential” into a company that’ll prove up multi million ounce deposits.
I'm still long and strong but is the worst case scenario for a JV we hold 30% and the other crowd hold 70% and would the market think that was a success??
I have been a long term investor in ARB, bought after IPO, sold and rebought at 4.3p. I sold into the rise. Kept a few. Was a twenty bagger at one point! Helped me build a pf and do some nice things with the money. I will leave what is left in but it was always undervalued like all of my picks. But then we all say that!
I think ECR is undervalued, even allowing for conversions. But they are in the business of finding stuff. Only when that journey begins will value be attributed. Bit like TXP and that even at a 9 bagger is still significantly undervalued!
It you want access to crypto but don’t want to hold the stuff then MODE is imo the best play atm.
My new tech adventure is quantum computing, AI and cloud. That and graphene which will play out soon is what am enjoying researching atm. Much of the maths based science will use blockchain.
Usual caveats
Trek
ECR and WSBN very much undervalued gold stocks in my opinion. One of them could morph into the 'next GGP'
HI Dill,
To your question on Saturday, if the market would be happy with us retaining 30% of Creswick on a JV.
I cannot speak for the market, but I would be more than happy with anything over 25% if Newmont were the partner.
30% would be a decent deal if the other party took all the future exploration costs.
If they do prove Creswick up (somewhere near the $8BN worth of gold speculated by CB wold be nice !) over the next year or two then 25-30% is not going to look too shabby.
Books looking strong this morning - we could see a good rally soon. Just have that feeling some updates are coming this week - just a hunch.
TS - How quickly do you think we will get a rerate of the current sp if JV is announced on Creswick?
Immediately
So if we get a 30% deal on Creswell at 8bn, we could see a 30 to 40 bagger?
Doesn't quite work like that unfortunately.
My expectation is that we will re-rate immediately to around 10p (MMs will sweep up the 'I'm selling @10p' brigade).
A week or two after a deal it will settle between a £100m -150m mcap (14-21p) which would be in line with peers at the same point of development..a Newmont deal may excite the market to be at the top end of that range and any positive Baillieston results or further licences granted may help to boost the price.
Personally I am not sharing speculation past that point at the moment (waiting to see the full details of any deal)
Longer term some on here have speculated you may get your 30 bagger (£1) , but that will be post full proving up of Creswick and proving up (and possible JV) on Bailieston with everything coming up near the top end of expectations for the next year or two...I'll let others speculate on here.
"So if we get a 30% deal on Creswell at 8bn, we could see a 30 to 40 bagger?"
If you are asking 'if a jv is announced will the sp multiply 30 or 40x ?' the answer is no, not a chance in hell.
They still need to actually turn a gold prospect into a gold resource and start getting it out of the ground.
2 million ounces at todays price (£1370) = £2,740,000,000
30% of that = £822,000,000
However that is before all associated AISC.
Bear in mind this is only for a combined resource of 2 million ounces and there's every chance ECR can discover multiple of this number
I don't think £1 a share long term is out of the question. Imagine a JV being announced at Creswick, 12 months of drilling at Bailleston and then another JV announcement, it will fly.
All depends what's in the ground but the sooner we announce the JV and a plan for Bailleston, the sooner we find out