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Nice find Marmot!
Does this add fuel to the fire of a tie-up/collaboration between B2Gold and Centamin?
One thing I know - I'd rather have Clive Johnson as Centamin's Chairman than Mr Rutherford (no offence Mr Rutherford, sir) should a merger happen.
Also anecdotally, I've got a hell of a lot of interest in my LinkeIn post of last week concerning the combination of B2Gold and Centamin - several hundred views including a bunch of Centamin executives/directors and general Sukari employees (including a few from Barrick and the EMRA too)
Two cashed up and debt free growing companies embarking on an Egyptian /West African adventure - what's not to like?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypt-burkinafaso-gold-activity-6855191601048772608-eht4
alternatively we'll see how much twitter action this one gets today
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1452692370118508545
Gold price up as it appears inflation genie out of the bottle
https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-10-25/Gold-price-up-as-it-appears-inflation-genie-out-of-the-bottle.html
Gold Regains $1800 as Powell, Yellen and the World Bank Acknowledge Higher and Persistent Inflation, Oil Hit Multi-Year High
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-prices-102520215
1809.......soon 1850.....then 1900.....
CaneToad,
There a re very few who would have been happy putting a six figure sum of their own money in to BTC ( unless fabulously rich already ) But no doubt many around the world who would be happy with some quite large sums in Gold.
MrTibbles: I agree that all the improvements you've mentioned will help the CEY share price. The problem is that most of the good gold miners are debt-free and highly profitable. They've all suffered in the past 6m.
Auson: In 2015 BTC was trading at $200, while it's now over $60,000. In that same time, gold has moved from $1,200 to $1,800; it's now back to levels seen in 2011. Do you see the problem? I have no plans whatsoever to sell my CEY, but I'd need to see a substantial increase in the gold price + improvements at Sukari before buying any more.
CaneToad,
Where was POG 2, 3,4, and five years ago ?
Hi Canetoad,
I agree regarding the relationship with the POG and I also remain positive on the POG, however even if the POG were to remain at this level once the open pit is restored and the AISC are reduced this will have a very positive effect on the profits and the markets perception of the company.
Also demonstrating and delivering on getting Sukari on the way back to where it was coupled with delivering on the expansion possibilities to push us back over 500k is vital and also attracts greater investors and the obvious big potential takeover companies… we remain projecting performance below Oct2020 - turn this round and the minimum back with the ~25% drop it caused- the rest of damage being broadly in line with most pm’s due to the daily intra-day trading gold movements.
@goldome: "I would brighten up, so much more to life ..."
Stocks are an investment. If they don't (eventually) rise, there is no point in owning them, that's unless you collect them like stamps and love researching them for that reason. I don't. The performance of gold has been poor, at a time when it should be 'shining'. If it doesn't improve, you will see much larger outflows from gold ETFs. Personally, I believe gold will rise from here, but I've been telling myself that for 6m and I'm in the minority...
You can research the CEY fundamentals all you like, but without the gold price rising, CEY will not rise. I don't think many people here get that...
CaneToad,
Well there are a fair few long gold contracts on the CFTC 193.3k up from 185.5k the week before.
So they are most likely betting on prices above $1830
I would brighten up, so much more to life ...
Stop reading the media, the tabloids, any "oids"...just think...Life is good, I am alive,
and if I want to feel happy I can, so f*%^ off
A good friend of mine died today. Didn't give a f%^$ about the stupidity of the markets. Perhaps oddly. But then he was a bit like that.
best
the gnome
I wouldn't worry about fools, surprisingly perhaps they are cheap, and there are many! We are not alone?
The world is facing the big Zero's, and its seriously not for fools ...
Zero Poverty,
Zero Unemployment, and
Zero Net Carbon Emissions
we can add a few more zero's
zero covid infections
zero covid caused deaths
and more
zero injuries from lightning strikes
zero deaths from excess gambling
zero deaths from excess drinking
zero deaths ffrom domestic violence.
zero deaths from Opioids
and more
zero deaths through depression
zero deaths through thinking too much
and on it goes.
when I was young, we had
zero accidents
zero sexual harrassment
zero saftey incidents
and so much more
so much more to life than ZERO
best
the gnome
I'll feel less gloomy about gold if/when it rises back above $1830. Hard to get excited yet.
Can see this close above 1 pound today....bring on the data...
https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/10/25/a-dirt-cheap-ftse-250-dividend-stock-id-buy-today/
Yeah ditto again.
Thanks Razorsedge
Thank you for doing this every day - great first read of the day!
Stock exchanges in Europe were in the green in premarket trade on Monday after HSBC reported that its profit after tax soared 110% year on year in the third quarter of 2021, surpassing expectations. Meanwhile, United Kingdom Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will reportedly propose raising the minimum wage during his budget speech on Wednesday. Investors will also monitor Bundesbank's monthly report and German business climate data for October, set for release after the markets open.
The DAX advanced 0.20% and London's FTSE 100 increased by 0.35% at 7:16 am CET. The CAC 40 climbed 0.35% at 6:56 am CET.
The euro was up 0.12% compared to the dollar at 7:17 am CET, trading for 1.16584. The British pound was 0.15% higher against the greenback, changing hands for 1.37807 at the same time.
Breaking the News / MS
In my view, Centamin is currently on probation. - MH, we think, has been brought in to steady the ship and see it through this probationary period. - So far, he appears to be doing a decent job in that some semblance of stability has been achieved.- Last Q of the year assumes great significance now. Any reporting of further set-backs during this time, market-wise, will be extremely difficult to contain. - So much going on now. so many new-irons in the fire, so many prizes to be won, it would be a tragedy if behind the curtain, nothing has really changed. - I think we'll soon have a clue as to direction of travel here.
H Mr Gnome,
I would like to say more, but mutual respect, courtesy and of course financial regulations prevent me from doing so in a public forum, however what I will say is that I have the utmost respect for Martin Horgan and I remain very optimistic for the future of Centamin !
Finish of Peel Hunt until further updates
Centamin
22 July 2021
2
Recommendation structure and distribution
Recommendation distribution at 22 July 2021 All research published in the last 90 days
Corporate No Corporate % No % Corporate % %
Buy 126 93 256 63 95 66
Add 5 4 63 16 3 15
Hold 3 2 63 16 2 15
Reduce 0 0 11 3 0 3
Sell 0 0 7 2 0 1
Under Review 2 1 6 1 0 1
Peel Hunt’s Recommendation Structure is as follows:
Buy, > +15% expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Add, +5-15% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Hold, +/-5% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Reduce, -5-15% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Sell, > -15% expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Under Review (UR), Recommendation, Target Price and/or Forecasts suspended pending market events/regulation
NB The recommendation is the primary driver for analyst views. The target price may vary from the structure due to market conditions, risk profile of
the company and capital returns
Research Disclosures Number Disclosure
1 Company is a corporate client of Peel Hunt
2 The Analyst has a shareholding in this Company
3 The Company holds >3% in Peel Hunt
4 Peel Hunt makes a market in this Company
5 Peel Hunt is Broker to this Company and therefore provides investment services to the Company
6 During the last 12 months Peel Hunt has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking
services
7 During the last 12 months Peel Hunt has acted as a sponsor/broker/ NOMAD/ financial advisor for an offer of securities from
this company
8 Peel Hunt holds >5% in Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU) 596/2014)
9 1% beneficial ownership (calculated for purposes of FINRA under Section 13(d)/(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
and IIROC Rule 3400)
10 Peel Hunt holds a net long position that exceeds 0.5% in the Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU)
596/2014).
11 Peel Hunt holds a net short position that exceeds 0.5% in the Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU)
596/2014).
Recommendation history
Company Disclosures Date Rec Price Target Price
Centamin 4 26 Apr 21 Buy 117p 150p
19 Mar 21 Buy 105p 145p
17 Dec 20 Buy 121p 160p
02 Nov 20 Buy 124p 170p
09 Oct 20 Add 157p 218p
21 Sep 20 Add 214p 243p
13 Jul 20 Buy 188p 185p
This document must be treated as a marketing communication for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU (as enacted into the laws of England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland by regulations made under the European Union Withdrawal Act 2018) as it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
A solid 2Q21 for production
Overall, CEY reported good production results for 2Q21 with
both production and sales beating by 5% and 2% respectively.
The beat at the revenue line was offset by a higher cost line and
potentially some cash outflows we had not forecast. Overall cash
at mid-year was reported at a still strong US$312m, just 2%
below our forecast. Production, cost and capex guidance for
2021 have all been maintained.
Production and gold sold beats PHe in 2Q
Centamin reported a good set of 2Q production results overall, but with mixed
financial highlights. Production in 2Q was strong at 100k oz, some 5% ahead of
our 95k oz forecast and in line with consensus at 100k oz. Underground ore
mined came in 17% ahead of our forecast while the open pit ore production came
in 13% below PHe. CEY processed 2,804kt of ore (7% below PHe at 3,000kt),
but with a higher grade of 1.19g/t (6% above PHe at 1.12g/t) and slightly higher
recoveries of 89% (PHe 88%). The company sold 97k oz in the quarter, above
our 95k oz forecast.
Revenue in 2Q21 beats by 9%
CEY also reported a good realised price of US$1,822/oz, some 4% ahead of PHe
forecasts for the period. Revenue for 2Q therefore came in better at US$177.5m,
some 9% above our US$163m. Costs for the period were reported slightly higher
than expected at AISC of US$1,290/oz vs PHe at US$1,277/oz.
Cash a bit lower than forecast, guidance for 2021 maintained
With capex coming in lower at US$41m (PHe at US$59m), it was slightly
surprising to see FCF at just US$7m (vs PHe at US$12m), even though
management commented that this was higher than they had budgeted. It implies
maybe some higher one-off costs during 1H21 and potentially a working capital
unwind from 2H20. Overall cash was therefore reported slightly lower than
forecast at US$312m vs PHe at US$317m. The company maintained
production, cost and capex guidance for 2021E, but increased the exploration
budget to US$17m (from US$5m) to include additional work on the West
African portfolio. The Sukari Phase 2 LOM review is still scheduled for 4Q21E.
CONT
Sorry that concludes what I am able to post from Berenberg note.