We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/10/25/a-dirt-cheap-ftse-250-dividend-stock-id-buy-today/
Yeah ditto again.
Thanks Razorsedge
Thank you for doing this every day - great first read of the day!
Stock exchanges in Europe were in the green in premarket trade on Monday after HSBC reported that its profit after tax soared 110% year on year in the third quarter of 2021, surpassing expectations. Meanwhile, United Kingdom Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will reportedly propose raising the minimum wage during his budget speech on Wednesday. Investors will also monitor Bundesbank's monthly report and German business climate data for October, set for release after the markets open.
The DAX advanced 0.20% and London's FTSE 100 increased by 0.35% at 7:16 am CET. The CAC 40 climbed 0.35% at 6:56 am CET.
The euro was up 0.12% compared to the dollar at 7:17 am CET, trading for 1.16584. The British pound was 0.15% higher against the greenback, changing hands for 1.37807 at the same time.
Breaking the News / MS
In my view, Centamin is currently on probation. - MH, we think, has been brought in to steady the ship and see it through this probationary period. - So far, he appears to be doing a decent job in that some semblance of stability has been achieved.- Last Q of the year assumes great significance now. Any reporting of further set-backs during this time, market-wise, will be extremely difficult to contain. - So much going on now. so many new-irons in the fire, so many prizes to be won, it would be a tragedy if behind the curtain, nothing has really changed. - I think we'll soon have a clue as to direction of travel here.
H Mr Gnome,
I would like to say more, but mutual respect, courtesy and of course financial regulations prevent me from doing so in a public forum, however what I will say is that I have the utmost respect for Martin Horgan and I remain very optimistic for the future of Centamin !
Finish of Peel Hunt until further updates
Centamin
22 July 2021
2
Recommendation structure and distribution
Recommendation distribution at 22 July 2021 All research published in the last 90 days
Corporate No Corporate % No % Corporate % %
Buy 126 93 256 63 95 66
Add 5 4 63 16 3 15
Hold 3 2 63 16 2 15
Reduce 0 0 11 3 0 3
Sell 0 0 7 2 0 1
Under Review 2 1 6 1 0 1
Peel Hunt’s Recommendation Structure is as follows:
Buy, > +15% expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Add, +5-15% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Hold, +/-5% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Reduce, -5-15% range expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Sell, > -15% expected absolute price performance over 12 months
Under Review (UR), Recommendation, Target Price and/or Forecasts suspended pending market events/regulation
NB The recommendation is the primary driver for analyst views. The target price may vary from the structure due to market conditions, risk profile of
the company and capital returns
Research Disclosures Number Disclosure
1 Company is a corporate client of Peel Hunt
2 The Analyst has a shareholding in this Company
3 The Company holds >3% in Peel Hunt
4 Peel Hunt makes a market in this Company
5 Peel Hunt is Broker to this Company and therefore provides investment services to the Company
6 During the last 12 months Peel Hunt has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking
services
7 During the last 12 months Peel Hunt has acted as a sponsor/broker/ NOMAD/ financial advisor for an offer of securities from
this company
8 Peel Hunt holds >5% in Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU) 596/2014)
9 1% beneficial ownership (calculated for purposes of FINRA under Section 13(d)/(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
and IIROC Rule 3400)
10 Peel Hunt holds a net long position that exceeds 0.5% in the Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU)
596/2014).
11 Peel Hunt holds a net short position that exceeds 0.5% in the Company (calculated under Market Abuse Regulation (EU)
596/2014).
Recommendation history
Company Disclosures Date Rec Price Target Price
Centamin 4 26 Apr 21 Buy 117p 150p
19 Mar 21 Buy 105p 145p
17 Dec 20 Buy 121p 160p
02 Nov 20 Buy 124p 170p
09 Oct 20 Add 157p 218p
21 Sep 20 Add 214p 243p
13 Jul 20 Buy 188p 185p
This document must be treated as a marketing communication for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU (as enacted into the laws of England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland by regulations made under the European Union Withdrawal Act 2018) as it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of research; and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
A solid 2Q21 for production
Overall, CEY reported good production results for 2Q21 with
both production and sales beating by 5% and 2% respectively.
The beat at the revenue line was offset by a higher cost line and
potentially some cash outflows we had not forecast. Overall cash
at mid-year was reported at a still strong US$312m, just 2%
below our forecast. Production, cost and capex guidance for
2021 have all been maintained.
Production and gold sold beats PHe in 2Q
Centamin reported a good set of 2Q production results overall, but with mixed
financial highlights. Production in 2Q was strong at 100k oz, some 5% ahead of
our 95k oz forecast and in line with consensus at 100k oz. Underground ore
mined came in 17% ahead of our forecast while the open pit ore production came
in 13% below PHe. CEY processed 2,804kt of ore (7% below PHe at 3,000kt),
but with a higher grade of 1.19g/t (6% above PHe at 1.12g/t) and slightly higher
recoveries of 89% (PHe 88%). The company sold 97k oz in the quarter, above
our 95k oz forecast.
Revenue in 2Q21 beats by 9%
CEY also reported a good realised price of US$1,822/oz, some 4% ahead of PHe
forecasts for the period. Revenue for 2Q therefore came in better at US$177.5m,
some 9% above our US$163m. Costs for the period were reported slightly higher
than expected at AISC of US$1,290/oz vs PHe at US$1,277/oz.
Cash a bit lower than forecast, guidance for 2021 maintained
With capex coming in lower at US$41m (PHe at US$59m), it was slightly
surprising to see FCF at just US$7m (vs PHe at US$12m), even though
management commented that this was higher than they had budgeted. It implies
maybe some higher one-off costs during 1H21 and potentially a working capital
unwind from 2H20. Overall cash was therefore reported slightly lower than
forecast at US$312m vs PHe at US$317m. The company maintained
production, cost and capex guidance for 2021E, but increased the exploration
budget to US$17m (from US$5m) to include additional work on the West
African portfolio. The Sukari Phase 2 LOM review is still scheduled for 4Q21E.
CONT
Sorry that concludes what I am able to post from Berenberg note.
SXXP MSCI Metals
& Mining
1mth 10.4% 7.2%
3mth -9.1% -0.4%
12mth -66.3% -67.2%
Profit and loss summary
USD m 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenues 652 829 736 803 748
EBITDA 293 439 370 404 323
EBITA 177 314 241 281 202
EBIT 167 313 241 281 202
Associates contribution - - - - -
Net interest 6 2 1 1 1
Tax - - - - -
Minorities 0 0 0 0 0
Net income adj. 77 157 169 194 114
EPS reported 0.08 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.10
EPS adjusted 0.07 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.10
Year end shares 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156 1,156
Average shares 1,153 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
DPS 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.04
Cash flow summary
USD m 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Net income 173 315 242 282 203
Depreciation 116 125 129 123 121
Working capital changes -25 10 -62 -11 14
Other non-cash items -15 4 -1 2 2
Operating cash flow 249 453 308 397 340
Capex -93 -139 -229 -204 -181
FCFE 156 314 79 193 159
Acquisitions, disposals 7 7 0 0 0
Other investment CF -159 -313 -79 -192 -158
Dividends paid -81 -139 -81 -82 -63
Buybacks, issuance 0 -3 0 0 0
Change in net debt 4 -13 61 -24 -9
Net debt (cash negative) -278 -291 -231 -255 -264
FCF per share 0.13 0.27 0.07 0.17 0.14
Growth and margins
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue growth 8.1% 27.0% -11.2% 9.1% -6.8%
EBITDA growth 13.7% 49.7% -15.6% 9.1% -20.0%
EBIT growth 13.1% 87.5% -23.1% 16.7% -28.2%
EPS adj growth 14.6% 104.4% 7.5% 14.8% -41.0%
FCF growth 15.3% 102.1% -74.8% 143.2% -17.5%
EBITDA margin 44.9% 52.9% 50.3% 50.3% 43.2%
EBIT margin 25.6% 37.8% 32.8% 35.1% 27.0%
Net income margin 11.8% 18.9% 23.0% 24.2% 15.3%
FCF margin 23.9% 37.9% 10.8% 24.0% 21.3%
Key ratios
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Net debt / equity -21.5% -22.6% -16.6% -16.9% -16.9%
Net debt / EBITDA -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8
Avg cost of debt - - - - -
Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Interest cover - - - - -
Payout ratio 60.6% 66.5% 62.4% 36.0% 43.1%
ROCE 12.8% 23.7% 16.9% 18.3% 12.7%
Capex / sales 14.3% 16.8% 31.2% 25.4% 24.2%
Capex / depreciation 80.7% 111.5% 177.0% 166.3% 149.5%
Valuation metrics
2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
P / adjusted EPS 22.7 11.8 9.4 8.2 13.9
P / book value 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0
FCF yield 4.3% 8.1% 1.2% 6.7% 4.5%
Dividend yield 2.7% 5.6% 6.7% 4.4% 3.1%
EV / sales 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8
EV / EBITDA 5.1 3.6 3.7 3.4 4.2
EV / EBIT 8.9 5.1 5.7 4.8 6.7
EV / FCF 9.5 5.1 17.4 7.1 8.5
EV / cap. employed 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8
Key risks to our investment thesis
? Gold:Gold:Gold:Gold: With no financial gearing (no debt), Centamin has lower-than-
average sensitivity to the gold price. Given the strength of the
balance sheet, the Sukari mine will survive a lower price than most.
? Updated mine plan:Updated mine plan:Updated mine plan:Updated mine plan: The updated mine plan, due before the end of
2021, could materially alter our long-term assumptions for both the
open pit and underground mine.
Cont
19 October 2021 Reuters CEY.L
? We retain a Buy recommendation for Centamin, as we believe that
the recent capital markets day provided clarity about the medium-
term production profile. Centamin retains a solid balance sheet and
should produce 450koz-500koz over the longer term with a
sustainable dividend of at least USD100m/year.
? Price target and rating:Price target and rating:Price target and rating:Price target and rating: Our price target, based on 1.2x NAV and
6x EBITDA, is GBp134 (down from GBp137).
? Valuation methodology:Valuation methodology:Valuation methodology:Valuation methodology: We value Centamin on an equally
weighted blend of NPV (10%) and EV/EBITDA methodologies to
generate our GBp134 price target (from GBp137).
Bloomberg CEY LN
Current price Price target
GBp 98 GBp 134 Market cap (GBP m) 1,127
19/10/2021 London Close EV (GBP m) 989
Trading volume 7,350,000
Free float 98.0%
Non-institutional shareholders Share performance
Management: 2% High 52 weeks GBp 164
Low 52 weeks GBp 90
Business description Performance relative to
Centamin is a single-asset gold producer
operating the Sukari mine in Egypt. Sukari
has been in operation since 2009 and has a
20-year mine life from today.
Cont
The main catalyst
for the shares should be the upcoming life of mine plan for Sukari that is
scheduled for 1 December. In our view, the shares remain well supported
by the balance sheet and a high minimum dividend – of USD105m – set for
the year, with a yield of 6.7% for 2021.
19 October 2021
BUY
Current price
Price target
GBp98
GBp 134
19/10/2021 London Close
Market cap (GBP m) 1,127
Reuters CEY.L
Bloomberg CEY LN
Changes made in this note
Rating: Buy (no change)
Price target: GBp 134 (137)
Estimates changes
2021E 2022E 2023E
old ? % old ? % old ? %
Sales 773 -4.8 803 0 748 0
EBITD
A
408 -9.2 404 -0.1 323 -0.2
EPS 0.17 -12.8 0.16 3.4 0.10 -0.3 Source: Berenberg estimates
Share data
Shares outstanding (m) 1,156
Enterprise value (GBP m) 989
Daily trading volume 7,350,000
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Y/E 31/12, USD m 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenues 652 829 736 803 748 EBITDA 293 439 370 404 323
EBIT 167 313 241 281 202
Net income (adjusted) 77 157 169 194 114
EPS (reported) 0.08 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.10
EPS (adjusted)EPS (adjusted)EPS (adjusted)EPS (adjusted) 0.070.070.070.07 0.140.140.140.14 0.150.150.150.15 0.170.170.170.17 0.100.100.100.10
DPS 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.04
Dividend payout ratio 61% 66% 62% 36% 43%
Dividend yield 2.7% 5.6% 6.7% 4.4% 3.1%
Capex -93 -139 -229 -204 -181
Free cash flow 156 314 79 193 159
FCF yield 4.3% 8.1% 1.2% 6.7% 4.5%
Y/E net debt (net cash) -278 -291 -231 -255 -264
Net debt / EBITDA -0.95 -0.66 -0.62 -0.63 -0.82
Gross margin 30.2% 40.0% 35.1% 36.6% 28.7%
EBITDA margin 44.9% 52.9% 50.3% 50.3% 43.2%
EBIT margin 25.6% 37.8% 32.8% 35.1% 27.0%
ROCE 12.8% 23.7% 16.9% 18.3% 12.7%
P/E 22.7 11.8 9.4 8.2 13.9
EV/EBITDA 5.1 3.6 3.7 3.4 4.
Cont
Berenberg
Q3 an incremental miss; guidance maintained
? Q3 light on lower throughput: Centamin has announced Q3 production of
103.5koz from the Sukari mine in Egypt, versus our expectation of 109koz
and consensus of 107koz. A total of 2.9Mt was mined from the open pit at
an average grade of 1.02g/t, while the company mined 201kt from the
underground mine at 4.47g/t. Grade from the open pit was above our
expectation, with higher grades drawn from the Stage 4 West area. The
waste-stripping programme is also progressing well, with both the owner-
operated and Capital-operated programmes 17% ahead of schedule. The
good performance of the open pit was offset by lower grade and volumes
from the underground mine being below our expectations. This appears to
be at least partly down to contractor underperformance, with a tendering
process for a new contractor underway. Production was incrementally
light due to lower processed tonnes – at 2.885Mt versus our expectation of
3Mt, with lower plant throughput driven by maintenance during the
period, including a mill reline. Recoveries at 88.7% were in line with our
expectation. All in sustaining costs (AISC) were USD1,266/oz (Berenberg:
USD1,1875/oz/; consensus: USD1,218/oz) and revenue for the period was
USD183m (Berenberg and consensus: USD194m).
? Trimming production expectation: We have trimmed our 2021 production
expectation – from 429koz at an AISC of USD1,183/oz, to 413koz at an AISC
of USD1,229/oz. This compares to guidance – which has been maintained
– of 400koz-430koz at an AISC of USD1,150/oz-USD1,250/oz, with
management now flagging the midpoint of the range as the likely landing
point. Capex guidance has also been maintained at USD225m, with ytd
expenditure of USD67.6m. Centamin maintains a solid balance sheet, with
no debt and USD256.1m of cash – although FCF generation remains muted
at present due to the high amount of waste being mined as part of the
catch-up stripping programme.
? Maintain a Buy, cutting price target: We maintain a Buy recommendation,
but our price target pulls back from GBp138/share to GBp134/share based
on unchanged multiples of 1.2x NAV an 6x EV/EBITDA.
Cont
Increase in cash and cash equivalents 7 (91) (70) (35)
(Increase) / decrease in borrowings 0 0 0 (70)
Repayment of finance leases 0 0 0 0
Exchange / other 0 0 0 0
(Increase) / decrease in net debt 0 0 0 0
Net cash / (debt) (start) 0 0 0 0
Net cash / (debt) (end) 291 201 132 27
Leases 0 0 0 0
Net cash / (debt) (end) including leases 291 201 132 27Centamin
19 October 2021
5
Figure 4: Balance sheet ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Other intangible assets 64 46 56 66
PPE 830 904 946 1,039
Trade and other LT receivables 0 0 0 0
Deferred tax asset 0 0 0 0
Investments in JVs / Associates 0 0 0 0
Retirement benefit asset 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 65 91 94 116
Fixed assets 959 1,041 1,096 1,221
Inventories 119 116 124 131
Trade and other receivables 18 26 27 29
Cash & cash equivalents 291 201 132 97
Financial assets 0 0 0 0
Other current assets 9 9 9 9
Current assets 437 352 292 265
Total Assets 1,396 1,393 1,388 1,486
Trade payables 64 65 65 67
Borrowings 0 0 0 70
Tax liabilities 0 0 0 0
Provisions 7 7 7 7
Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0
Current liabilities 72 72 72 144
Total assets less current liabilities 1,324 1,321 1,316 1,343
Net current assets 365 280 220 122
Long-term borrowings and finance leases 0 0 0 0
Retirement benefit obligations 0 0 0 0
Provisions 0 0 0 0
Other payables 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 33 30 30 30
Non-current liabilities 34 30 30 30
Net Assets 1,289 1,290 1,285 1,312
Total equity 1,289 1,329 1,324 1,350
Minority interests 17 8 8 8
Shareholders’ equity 1,307 1,336 1,331 1,358
Number of shares at period end (basic) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Reported EPS (basic) ($) 0 0 0 0
Reported EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (basic) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (basic) growth (%) 79 (30) (36) (4)
Underlying EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EPS (diluted) growth (%) 79 (30) (36) (4)
Pro-forma EPS (diluted) ($) 0 0 0 0
DPS (Ordinary) ($) 0 0 0 0
DPS (Total) ($) 0 0 0 0
Dividend growth (%) 20 (24) (64) 13
Dividend cover (x) 1 1 2 2
Source: Liberum
Figure 3: Cash flow statement ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Reported EBIT 307 209 153 149
Profit in associates 0 0 0 0
Depreciation (124) (141) (162) (183)
Amortisation 0 0 0 0
Loss / (profit) on sale of PPE 0 0 0 0
Share based payments 0 0 0 0
Increase/(Decrease) in provisions 0 0 0 0
Loss / (Gain) on business disposal 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0
Operating cash flows before movements in working capital 451 346 315 332
(Increase) / decrease in inventories (21) (23) (12) (28)
(Increase) / decrease in receivables 16 (7) (2) (1)
(Decrease) / increase in payables 7 0 0 2
(Increase) / decrease in working capital 2 (30) (13) (27)
Cash generated by operations 371 322 302 304
Tax paid (0) 0 0 0
Net cash flow from operating activities 453 315 302 304
Purchase of PPE (127) (157) (111) (196)
Purchase of other intangibles (12) (17) (10) (10)
Disposals 0 0 0 0
Net capex (139) (174) (121) (206)
Dividends from associates 0 0 0 0
Movement in short term investments 0 0 0 0
Acquisitions 7 0 0 0
(Investments) / disposals of associates 0 0 0 0
Other cash flow from investing 0 0 0 0
Net cash flow from investing activities (130) (232) (212) (286)
Net interest received / (paid) 8 3 2 1
Equity dividends paid (139) (81) (76) (41)
Share issues / (repurchases) 0 0 0 0
Lease payments 0 0 0 0
Increase / (decrease) in borrowings 0 0 0 70
Other cash flow from financing (174) (93) (84) (82)
Net cash flow from financing activities (316) (174) (160) (53)
Cont-
Calendar year
EV (CY) 20A 21E 22E 23E
Market Cap 1,591 1,591 1,591 1,591
Net Debt/(Cash) (291.3) (201.5) (131.6) (27.3)
Pension & other adj. (159.0) (102.9) (84.3) (81.9)
EV 1,140 1,286 1,375 1,481
Valuation (CY) 20A 21E 22E 23E
P/E (x) 10.1 14.5 22.5 23.4
Div Yield (%) 8.7 6.6 2.4 2.7
EV/Sales (x) 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.6 3.6 4.4 4.5
EV/EBIT (x) 3.7 6.1 9.0 10.0
FCFe Yield (%) 20.5 10.0 12.0 6.8
Price / book (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Financial year (December year end)
Financials (FY) 20A 21E 22E 23E
Sales 829 732 736 764
EBITDA 439 353 315 332
EBIT 307 209 153 149
EBIT Margin (%) 37.1 28.6 20.8 19.4
Net Interest 8.5 3.3 1.7 1.3
PBT 316 213 155 150
FD EPS ($) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
- vs consensus (%) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
DPS ($) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Leverage (FY) 20A 21E 22E 23E
Net Debt/(Cash) (291.3) (201.5) (131.6) (27.3)
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) (0.7) (0.6) (0.4) (0.1)
Net Debt/Mkt Cap (x) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0)
Source: Liberum, Bloomberg
All numbers are on a post-IFRS 16 b
Financial model
Figure 2: Income statement ($m)
December year-end 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E
Total sales 829 732 736 764
Sales growth (%) 27 (12) 0 4
Gross margin (%) 46 35 28 27
Cost of sales (449) (477) (528) (561)
Gross profit 379 255 207 204
Operating expenses (55) (38) (36) (36)
Administrative expenses 0 0 0 0
Share based payments 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBITDA 439 353 315 332
Depreciation (124) (141) (162) (183)
Amortisation (not acquired) 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBIT (pre JVs) 307 209 153 149
EBIT (pre JVs) margin (%) 37 29 21 19
Revenue 0 0 0 0
PBT 0 0 0 0
Tax 0 0 0 0
JV post tax profit 0 0 0 0
JV contribution 0 0 0 0
Profit on disposal 0 0 0 0
Underlying EBIT 307 209 153 149
EBIT Margin (%) 37 29 21 19
Amortisation of acquired intangibles 0 0 0 0
Exceptional / extraordinary costs (1) 0 0 0
Reported EBIT 307 209 153 149
Non-operating exceptional costs 0 0 0 0
Interest income 2 1 2 1
Interest costs 7 2 0 0
Pension credit / (cost) 0 0 0 0
Net Interest 8 3 2 1
Underlying PBT 316 213 155 150
Reported PBT 316 213 155 150
Underlying tax rate (%) 0 (0) 0 0
Exceptional tax rate (%) 0 0 0 0
Reported tax rate (%) 0 (0) 0 0
Underlying tax (0) 0 0 0
Exceptional tax 0 0 0 0
Reported tax (0) 0 0 0
Underlying PAT 315 213 155 150
Discontinued operations (net) 0 0 0 0
Profit on disposal 0 0 0 0
Reported PAT 315 213 155 150
Share of profit attributable to minorities (159) (103) (84) (82)
Preference dividends 0 0 0 0
Minorities (159) (103) (84) (82)
Underlying net income 157 110 71 68
Reported net income 156 110 71 68
Weighted average number of shares (basic) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (m) 1,153 1,156 1,156 1,156
cont-
Liberium
This document is a marketing communication and has been prepared and distributed by Liberum Capital Limited. It is not independent research prepared in accordance
with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to a prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of
investment research. For Reg-AC certification, see the end of the text. Liberum does and seeks to do business with companies covered in this communication. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a
single factor in making their investment decision. 9m’21 production was 307.8koz at cash costs of
US$820/oz and All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of
US$1,197/oz. Centamin is therefore now aiming to achieve
the mid-point of its full-year 2021 target of 400-430koz, and
the lower half of the cash cost and AISC ranges of US$800-
900/oz and US$1,150-1,250/oz, respectively. We see this
as an important ‘result’ in that Centamin has been investing
heavily for operational reliability in order to restore market
confidence in the company’s ability to meet guidance.
FY21: production likely in-line, costs better than we hoped
Our existing forecast for FY21 production is 413koz, at cash cost of
US$833/oz and AISC of US$1,212/oz. Centamin’s achieving the mid-point of
its production guidance range would therefore put it in-line with our
production number. It is looking likely to us, however, that Centamin will
better our costs expectations.
Balance sheet remains strong
As at 30 September 2021, Centamin had US$256m of cash and liquid assets
(June 2021: US$312m), after the interim dividend of US$46.1m, with no debt
and no hedging.
Phase 2 of Sukari Life of Asset (LOA) review on 1st Dec
The long- and eagerly-awaited Phase 2 of the Sukari LOA review is to be
unveiled on Wednesday 1 December 2021. Updated reserve and resource
statements for Sukari will also be published at the time.
Cont-
Hello Paul the picture you are portraying is beginning to from.
One piece of the jigsaw is the roadshow effort. Two in the past couple of months and another scheduled for November 16th.
If Martin Horgan is as good as the little evidence we have would suggest, the POG strong and production back above (what seems to be crucial for a minor to be taken seriously) 500oz pa the share price of Centamin could pass previous all time highs.
A trillion here, a trillion there, the cupboard will never be bare.
it does not seem to matter anymore.
good luck punters.
the gnome
If you ever feel useless, just remember USA took 4 Presidents, thousands of lives, trillions of dollars and 20 years to replace Taliban with Taliban.
Anubhav Sinha
@anubhavsinha
Absolutely Paul!
Nails on the head, nails on the head!
Thank you Mr Gnome, for some great posts and info,as usual!
Rebess, I think that is part of the reason Martin Horgan seems to be moving slowly, as if something good was announced and then there was a setback, it would be more damaging than just moving forward slowly.
I do think he is keeping something back so he can show progression over the next few quarters. Even if more gold was mined than expected in the final quarter, I dont think that it would be announced yet. When the final figures come in I'd expect them to be a little over the mid point of guidance. That way , the figures would not be bad, but would leave room for improvement in future quarters.
We dont actually know what is going on, only what we are told, and that is what we have gone off in the past. Siko (decent chap) reporting someone saying "Good times are coming" and Mr Tibbles "man on the train" saying how good things were, were not based on insider knowledge, but what they were led to believe.
It appears Martin Horgan is doing the spade work now to get a good basis for future production at lower costs, which should lead to increased dividends and a rising share price.
I agree Rebess but those ba*****s have mostly gone ,the only suspect left could plead ignorance and good links within EMRA.
I would think he has been sidelined now.
I do not expect December announcement to alter much as long as it is not negative.
January and onwards is more likely possitive with probable improvement in AU price. Basel repercussions.