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Very fair and valid Summing up Somnamna!
Been frustrating at times to say the least for us trusting share holders !
I agree with Gnome about the restoration of trust as a requirement for the market to take Centamin more seriously. - When the antics of the directors included deliberate sabotage, which in itself is a direct and deliberate attack against its own shareholders, the breaking of 'Trust' to that degree takes some getting over and some forgetting. It not only robbed them, but also neutralised the outstanding fundamentals of having serious money in the bank, unhedged and without debt, one of only a handful of miners in that position. It suddenly didn't mean much anymore. The market is still very wary and still needs convincing. There's only one way to do that and we all know what it is. However, the merest hint of further shenanigans and Centamin will, once again, suffer the long slide back down the snake. IMO
https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/10/23/1-penny-stock-id-buy-for-inflation-beating-dividends/
Hyperinflation will keep prices down or stagnant for a while
Thanks Goldgnome.
Those figure clearly show inflation on a grand scale of Fiat currency especially the $.
But with some dodgy statisticians massaging reported inflation figures the real loss of buying power,,everything continues ,the working classes take the brunt.
On Channel4 this morning 8:30 — 9:30
Yep- we will never know before appears, acquisition of cey is a distinct possibility once seen again as a 500k plus miner or on a consistent path to one esp at this price.
End of Fiscal Year Debt (in billions, rounded) Debt-to-GDP Ratio Major Events by Presidential Term
1937 $36 39% Third New Deal
1938 $37 42% Dust Bowl ended
1939 $40 51% Depression ended
1940 $43 49% FDR increased spending & raised taxes
1941 $49 44% U.S. entered WWII
1942 $72 48% Defense tripled
1943 $137 70%
1944 $201 91% Bretton Woods
1945 $259 114% WWII ended
1946 $269 119% Truman's 1st term budgets & recession
1947 $258 103% Cold War
1948 $252 92% Recession
1949 $253 93% Recession
1950 $257 86% Korean War boosted growth and debt
1951 $255 74%
1952 $259 71%
1953 $266 68% Recession when war ended
1954 $271 69% Eisenhower's budgets & Recession
1955 $274 64%
1956 $273 61%
1957 $271 57% Recession
1958 $276 58% Eisenhower's 2nd term & recession
1959 $285 55% Fed raised rates
1960 $286 54% Recession
1961 $289 52% Bay of Pigs
1962 $298 50% JFK budgets & Cuban missile crisis
1963 $306 48% U.S. aids Vietnam, JFK killed
1964 $312 46% LBJ's budgets & war on poverty
1965 $317 43% U.S. entered Vietnam War
1966 $320 40%
1967 $326 40%
1968 $348 39%
1969 $354 36% Nixon took office
1970 $371 35% Recession
1971 $398 35% Wage-price controls
1972 $427 34% Stagflation
1973 $458 33% Nixon ended gold standard & OPEC oil embargo
1974 $475 31% Watergate & budget process created
1975 $533 32% Vietnam War ended
1976 $620 33% Stagflation
1977 $699 34% Stagflation
1978 $772 33% Carter budgets & recession
1979 $827 32%
1980 $908 32% Volcker raised fed rate to 20%
1981 $998 31% Reagan tax cut
1982 $1,142 34% Reagan increased spending
1983 $1,377 37% Jobless rate 10.8%
1984 $1,572 38% Increased defense spending
1985 $1,823 41%
1986 $2,125 46% Reagan lowered taxes
1987 $2,350 48% Market crash
1988 $2,602 50% Fed raised rates
1989 $2,857 51% S&L Crisis
1990 $3,233 54% First Iraq War
1991 $3,665 58% Recession
1992 $4,065 61%
1993 $4,411 63% Omnibus Budget Act
1994 $4,693 64% Clinton budgets
1995 $4,974 64%
1996 $5,225 64% Welfare reform
1997 $5,413 63%
1998 $5,526 60% LTCM crisis & recession
1999 $5,656 58% Glass-Steagall repealed
2000 $5,674 55% Budget surplus
2001 $5,807 55% 9/11 attacks & EGTRRA
2002 $6,228 57% War on Terror
2003 $6,783 59% JGTRRA & Iraq War
2004 $7,379 60% Iraq War
2005 $7,933 61% Bankruptcy Act & Katrina.
2006 $8,507 61% Bernanke chaired Fed
2007 $9,008 62% Bank crisis
2008 $10,025 68% Bank bailout & QE
2009 $11,910 82% Bailout cost $250B ARRA added $242B
2010 $13,562 90% ARRA added $400B, payroll tax holiday ended, Obama Tax cuts, ACA, Simpson-Bowles
2011 $14,790 95% Debt crisis, recession and tax cuts reduced revenue
2012 $16,066 99% Fiscal cliff
2013 $16,738 99% Sequester, government shutdown
2014 $17,824 101% QE ended, debt ceiling crisis
2015 $18,151 100% Oil prices fell
2016 $19,573 105% Brexit
2017 $20,245 104% Congress raised the debt ceiling
2018 $21,516 105% Trump tax cuts
2019 $22,719 107% Trade wars
2020 $27,748 129% COVID
I agree, but the answer is not fully developed. If the new mngt can reinstall trust into the investor community, this will be a step up. Previous guys destroyed it, and trust once gone, can be hard to recapture, but this is the journey.
Also very important to watch the exploration expenditures for mine, brown and greenfields. They have invested in this heavily now, and the team to manage this plus the mngt systems looks far more convincing than previously. In fact I do not think they had much of a system in this area at all, just a few shots in the dark and a thumb suck. The presentations have been far more articulate, clearer on process, strong on hurdles and the investors can see and feel the management. This is so far in front of the other mining companies around the world, it is a breath of fresh air.
If from their more measured and managed approach to exploration, they make discoveries in the mine and brownfields, or 2 or 3, this will create some tail winds for the SP/some value add.
I think they have enough in the organic growth pipeline, and the money to follow this that they do not have to jump onto making an acqusition to grow. The reverse maynot be true...they maybe acquired ...
best
the gnome
President Biden’s proposed $1.8 trillion American Families Plan on top of his $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan and his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan together make the biggest increase in government spending since the big Roosevelt increases. Like the Roosevelt New Deal, the Biden plan is a bold move to radically reform and redistribute wealth and opportunities and to stimulate the economy.
This is one of the better interviews with Dalio, mentions gold, and the asset switches
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVWAxZU89Ys
750 currencies have sprung into existence since 1700 from various governments...do you know how many have survived?
Very worth reading the below
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/biden-tax-spend-plan-big-cycle-swing-ray-dalio/
best
the gnome.
With the benefit of kind and erudite posts by Rebess, Cowichan, Sotolo and many others too many to mention and of course the guiding hand of Mr Tibbles, my thoughts with regard to CEY SP is it is clearly a function of:
a) gold price
b) production i.e. ounces of gold,
c) total costs (AISC + CAPEX)
It may also carry some benefit of "gold" in the ground.
So unless there is a major movement on a) b) or C) and bar any short term major buys or disposals the SP will languish were it is. We clearly need positive news on any or all to move the SP upwards.
I have followed CEY and been invested, as opposed to traded, for a number of years and seen plenty of ups downs, questionable management performance and skullduggery, so it is refreshing to have Martin Horgan and his team at the wheel but despite excellent work done so far they need to deliver increased production in terms of ounces of gold be it Sukari, Doropo or the new leases. The above to a large extent is stating the obvious it has taken me 10+ years to realize.
“Core government bonds have historically been seen as a key source of diversification in a multi-asset portfolio,” said Hugh Gimber, a global strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. “Today they are a key source of risk.”
It has to happen, and we can bury our heads in the sand, like quite a few others.
Bondholders risk $2.6trn hit on even a modest yield rise
A modest rise in yields that inflicts trillions of dollars in losses.
It’s a result of investors’ exposure to duration, a key gauge of risk for bondholders that’s near record highs. Even a half-percentage point jump in yields from here, to roughly the pre-pandemic average in 2019, would be enough to ravage funds .. It’s a threat with implications across asset classes, from emerging markets to high-flying tech shares.
...10-year US Treasury yields bumped up against their peak levels of 2021 this week amid wagers the Federal Reserve will start lifting borrowing costs next year.
...potential for steep losses is a legacy of the tilt toward longer-term borrowing during the era of historically low rates. The higher duration is, the larger the drop in prices for each notch up in yields. And it’s not just the US: The risk is global as inflation threats have induced many central banks to turn hawkish.
“Higher rates is a systemic risk now,” “Higher rates are a headwind for everything, except banks. Also, the risk is that if inflation continues at these levels that growth will be very slow.”
The Wall Street consensus is for 10-year Treasury yields, which touched 1.7 per cent this week, to reach 2 per cent a year from now [ I bet it is sooner]. That would put them in range of their 2.14 per cent average for 2019. The rate has already surged about a half-point since early August.
The sensitivity to higher rates within equities is greater for firms whose cash flows are anticipated further down the road.
Tech companies most exposed
That leaves tech companies most exposed. Many risky assets are vulnerable, including corporate debt below investment grade.
In the bond world, it wouldn’t take a slump of the magnitude seen in 1994, an infamous year for debt investors, for losses to be substantial.
With a half-point increase in yields, the Bloomberg US Treasury index would incur over $350 billion in losses, given the roughly $10 trillion of debt it tracks and the surge in its duration in the past 18 months.
The hit to the $68 trillion Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index -- which includes corporate and securitized bonds of both developed and emerging markets -- would be around $2.6 trillion.
“So many risk assets are expensive because of low real rates,” said Alberto Gallo, a portfolio manager at Algebris Investments. “As central banks attempt a normalisation, this will change.”
Going to be interesting to see who controls the shots..the central banks, or the markets ... ??
Comfortable in CEY, uncomfortable in tech stocks, and those with bucket loads on intangibles,
In the US interesting to see pressure upwards on wages, housing and rentals up....live in interesting times??
best
the gnome
Thanks Mr T. I'm hopeful for positive news that will signal and return to being a 500k plus deliverer again- and if this can be projected sooner rather than later, it cements all the good work done by Horgan on his expansion plans and abilities in running the key asset.
It remains a K shaped recovery since COVID started- with rates so low those on the upper bit of the K have money and pump it into equities as nothing yields like them.
The markets aren't the economy.
It's a very strange time- just look at how low jobless numbers are.
Interesting Tony.
But like the other "Experts ?" Speculation.
The market hangs on the FED speak, like a child on a dark stormy Halloween night hangs on to its parents hand.
Who do you believe when each fresh news item sends the market into panic.,
Checked my bank account today. Still no Brexit dividend.
Anyone else still waiting on theirs?
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/are-we-headed-for-recession-signposts-and-realism
Most long term holders will agree that Martin Horgan has achieved great deal in a relatively short time , although admittedly it may not be fast enough for some relatively new holders who prefer to be in and out of stocks more quickly.
Possibly some of the detail Decembers announcement may not please everyone, that is to be expected , although it may exceed expectations, who really knows at this stage , however I remain very optimistic for the future.
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/centamin-shares-are-falling-despite-q3-results/
The article just repeats what we already know that the POG affects Centamins profits , I am certain that we aware all aware of that by now, so pretty pointless,
How much does the author know about the engineering and geological issues involved in running successful gold mine?
What do they know about doing business in Egypt or the legal system in Eygpt
Have they ever visited Sukari?
What gold mining experience does the author have, most probably very little or none at all , they apply the same analytical methods to pub chain's, super,markers or jelly bean production.
This outfit is just about getting people hooked on trading, even worse it promotes CFD trading on which it is estimated that between 71% - 80% 0f retail investors lose money on.
Centamin/Sukari is where it is simply because appropriate mining methods and practice were abandoned in favour of high grading in order to impress the market with impressive guidance in the short term, Robbing Peter to Pay Paul, although as we are now aware this glossing over was unsustainable and it's now time to "Pay the Ferryman!"
The process which Sukari is going through now is the only waty to access higher grades safely and safeguard future production which may or may not exceed the exaggerated claims of the previous management but the guidance will be more constant and reliable and the AISC should be brought bacjk far more rspectable levels or even to industry syandard lows.
Post close
Twitter: gold's best periodic returns have occurred when gold and nominal rates move higher in tandem. This has been true since at least the early 1970's. It's gold's way of signaling that the Fed is way behind the curve in managing inflation.
Notice gold's been rising even with 10-yr climbing too (to 1.67%). 10yr/gold so-called "correlation" was always baloney. Negative real rates & gold are the true key correlation & with suppressed inter. rates &PERSISTENT inflation, gold's going a lot higher
There was nothing wrong with the article. The concern on gold was correct, although I would have said it WAS due to gold price/sentiment on gold price obviously, all other PMs have suffered on this, plus rising costs potential which the POLY CEO openly communicated adding to their lacklustre performance which is now coming back a bit.
Horgan has not said anything concrete on Sukari other than meeting revised forecasts etc which has been positive, most people have listened to every broadcast, and read all the information out there.
If Sukari is not good news on 1st December, it will also throw into question the capability with future projects where so far have been progressing well with lots of detail there.
I maintain what I said yesterday.
"Sukari in oct2020 battered the volume produced - before this it was 510k to 525k per annum then it was reset to 400-430k in oct2020 post this. Good news is slightly ahead of schedule in last RNS staying 415k most likely, so for sure stabilised and no worse since. The reason why I bang on about 1st Dec is this when they will comment on Sukari - will this once again be producing more and increase since Oct2020 projections? Fundamental as we’re still seem as single source and if this is positive along with all the new potentials this year- should be good."
My question for you Mr T, is the big question on expectation of will come out on 1st December:
Is your interpretation of Horgan's verbal comments, written comments that being ahead of schedule that Sukari will remain at current levels of production for many years and how many years with minor improvements and no more issues like Oct2020, or is that Sukari will return to 500k plus, the previous baseline, and what is the timeline for this?
Great post Mrtibbles.
I agree and am grateful to you for the content.
Thank you.
This article is pointless and illustrates the lack of understanding that some journalists have about Sukari and Centamin.
If this journalist had taken the trouble to do some research they would realise the reasons why the share price is where it is at present and that the Sukari operations are performing exactly to Martin Horgan's recovery plan, in fact things are ahead schedule!
I appreciate that some more recent holders are frustrated with lack of upward movement of the share price, but this is to be expected due to the increased AISC whilst the open pit remedial work takes place.
It's quite simple really there is no quick or magical fix to the open pit, the work has to be carried out properly to minimise any risk to the work force and mitigate future production risk, this has been fully explained by Martin Horgan in the two previous presentations and quarterly reports for anyone who has taken the trouble to listen to the presentations or taken the trouble to read the reports
So those hoping for a sudden upsurge in share price certainly before the remedial works are completed are most likely to remain frustrated for a while longer and so may possibly want to consider other alternative investments that may be more suited to their more usual/preferred trading/investment strategy.
Over the past decade have been many traders that have popped in hoping to be able to predict the Centamin share price and make whatever percent by using their usual trading charts and methodology, most have been disappointed/disillusioned and then moved onto other stocks and forums.
As some of our mining professionals have explained over the years mining is notoriously unpredictable and in addition Centamin has always been a contrarian investment in a contrarian country which amplifies the unpredictability!
I remain very optimistic that the next report won't disappoint but confirm that the turnaround is indeed progressing as predicted, possibly even ahead of schedule and there may even be some news on other developments in Eygpt and elsewhere that will reassure share holders and the market.
I don't see any threat to the present dividend policy,quite the contrary.
If Basel 3 was'nt going to have a positive effect on the POG then central banks wouldn't be accumulating so much gold under the radar on the wholesale markets and their trading rooms wouldn't be desperately trying to unwind Comex positions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSMiH2k8MNc&list=PLE1y8hGSqr8ar1gKUdfqFDK5ygLIlrdmz&index=1
Is the Covid crisis over, no certainly not iin many countries and it's getting worse in the UK where restrictions may have to be reintroduced according to SAGE,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59011321
Are the UK/USA economies improving, not apparent for or the ordinary people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58998860