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Surely a trip back to 140 isn't too far off now
Thanks Goldgnome- this stock is my primary day trading one- the rest of my portfolio is tied up eg pension, property etc driven by other I trust with balance- anyone with a lot of savings could simply trade this one- I work on being right 75% of the time and using stop losses to protect the big whacks- but as I’ve said before I sometimes get greedy on the the take profit and let it ride too long- with this stock so low and Horgan and evidently controlling things well now I think at some point this will jump - mail on economic data but also around RNS
H i Cowichan
The UK went through over a decade of austerity cuts by the Tory government after big banks and city trading desks city had brought about the last financial crash of 2008.
That was of course austerity for the likes of us whilst the city and big banks were bailed out with our money and the ordinary people had to endure wage freezes , evere cuts and back door privatisation to public services including the NHS, Social Care, General practice and dentistry.
The pandemic exposed just how unfit fr purpose our health service and now due to enforced changes practitioners contracts it there is a severe shortage of GP's , this situation has now spilled over into dentistry, the dentists have been in dispute with the central government over contracts since 2006, during the the pandemic the government failed to support dentists and so now most have the choice of either going bankrupt because many NHS procures are done at a loss ,or stop offing NHS services and go private, this privatisation was likely the intention of the government all along, so no more NHS funded dentistry for the majority.
The train drivers dispute isnt just about money it is about terms and coanditions of employment, the doing away with guards on trains and the closing of most ticket offices.
Just about very other profession in the UK are equally fed up with their terms of employment and the way are treated by their employers ,
The rail staff don't want to strike, but they have just had enough of not being listened to and if you are going to have a strike then it makes sense to do so when it has the maximum impact!
There is a sense of frustration, depression and despair over the UK and none of the politicians seem to have any idea how to sort it out, they will just say anything they think will placate the public so that they can remain on the Westminster gravy train!
nice one tony.
yes it confirms my thoughts about statistics, not surprising when you see the **** with the economy ,under bidens governance. though none of them much different. ( not me to blame ,everyone else)
it so easy to cherry pick news ,as we see with some posters on on social media sites ,even here.
I started Early – Took my Dog –
And visited the Sea –
The Mermaids in the Basement
Came out to look at me –
And Frigates – in the Upper Floor
Extended Hempen Hands –
Presuming Me to be a Mouse –
Aground – opon the Sands –
But no Man moved Me – till the Tide
Went past my simple Shoe –
And past my Apron – and my Belt
And past my Boddice – too –
And made as He would eat me up –
As wholly as a Dew
Opon a Dandelion's Sleeve –
And then – I started – too –
And He – He followed – close behind –
I felt His Silver Heel
Opon my Ancle – Then My Shoes
Would overflow with Pearl –
Until We met the Solid Town –
No One He seemed to know –
And bowing – with a Mighty look –
At me – The Sea withdrew –
You think Oz has it tough ? just look at the state of affairs in London (from my twitter feed)
Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan
@MayorofLondon
I’m extremely concerned that there will potentially be no train services running between London and Brighton during Brighton & Hove Pride.
It threatens the success and safety of one of the country's most important LGBTQI+ events.
https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/1685319272686338049
(any wonder things are up sh*ts creek for the majority of taxpayers ?)
Https://alt-market.us/bidenomics-is-a-fraud-based-on-deliberately-misrepresented-stats/
Thanks to zero hedge.
Hi Mr Gnome,
It is disregardful the way that so many for all the wrong reasons have received their pay off reward in the form of a seat in the 'Upper House".
However these last appointments by Boris Johnson who prorogued parliament, lied to the Queen , broke with impunity his owns government's Covid regulations and deceived the general public about the true consequences of leaving the EU must be some of the most undeserved and are an insult to our UK Parliament.
No wonder the general electorate have such little faith in our political and parliamentary system!
Hi Daz, agreed 480,000 oz isn't bad, but that said the astronomically high AISC as a direct result of over half a decade of intentionally high grading Sukari to pump up the guidance and hide the true state of the workings all of which has resulted in a loss of marker confidence and why the share remains where it is.
In 2015 Kees Dekker highlighted that the underground workings in many respects were crucial to achieving the predicted hoped for guidance as the open pit grades weren't that good, this was denied by Pardey on several occasions and in 2017/18 'Barminco"the drilling contractor allowed the sole but oh so essential LHDR to self destruct somebody had forgotten have a contingency plan ready, or even to order specialist spare parts!
It does seem the only thig you have to do to get into the House of Lords is go to an illegal set of parties and stand in the shadows of the PM, or something like that !!! LOL, of course helps if Boris is the PM...
We are doing it tough in Oz, ... Along with the 3.8 per cent growth in private sector wages, restaurant input costs have soared across the board. Retail prices for cheese are up 16 per cent in the year to June 30, oils and fat prices are up 14 per cent, bread is up 14 per cent, gas prices are up 26 per cent, and even spirits are up 11 per cent.
... there’s only so much people will pay for pasta!
The continued growth in services inflation is another factor causing angst among some economists. Service prices rose 6.3 per cent through the year, the highest rate since 2001, edging past the pace of price rises for goods. Service costs are weighing the MIners down, and they wont go away, or down, only up...as the RBA continues to put interest rates up ...
A big contributor to last month’s inflation result came from the continued rise in rents – up 2.5 per cent through the quarter and 6.7 per cent through the year – sparked by a huge mismatch between supply and demand, which is being exacerbated by the post-pandemic boom in overseas migration. Australia’s government policy on migration has led to intake or more than 400,000 in the year to June 30, and is expected to remain elevated at 315,000 this financial year...who are mostly renters, hence the increases in rent, and hence we have the Reserve Bank trying to correct for inbalances caused by Govt policy LOL
What a mess
the gnome
There is a lot I like about the results, now that I have finally caught up with them.~
Interesting to see the hedge at a $1900 POG. Then to look at the after tax IRR for Doropo at 41%., using $1900 POG The AISC is $1000 approx, and a low strip and met is fine. Hard to not see this project given a green light soon. Prep is the key to success in project start and ramp up, so I am happy to be quietly confident on this. This would make CEY a 610k ozs pa producer with a more comfortable AISC and 2 x 10 plus mine life mines in 2 jurisdictions in 2025.
Interesting to see the increase in tonnage coming from undergoound...at lower grade, but going owner operated is a far better way to go ...
just over 6,000 km2 of mineralised exploration permits, is a sound position to grown organically from.
I like the liquidiy, and would hate them to go and ruin the company on MandA
best
the gnome
If 480,000 ounces is in the “Spitoon of the Last stop saloon”…then I’d say someone else might like to get on the Cowichan bandwagon and get a better position too, Tibbs. Might Cowichan’s ‘balanced discussion’ simply be a poor facade for his true intentions and only feign compassion for fellow investors, it feels disingenuous.
The UAE-India economic agreement and how this may affect silver demand, along with the Q3/4 developments in the paper vs physical gold battle.
As BRICS nations meet to discuss a gold-backed currency and central banks around the world continue their gold-buying sprees, Andrew highlights how traders and investors can protect themselves from the possibility of a US Treasury default.
https://tinyurl.com/3js5m9vz
Hi Daz, fair comments, but then the company could if it chose correct any misconceptions share holders may have just by answering the individual concerned, 'Stone walling" is never a wise option as it leads to frustration and further misconceptions by all parties.
As to this forum the we all have the opportunity and indeed should contribute to the whole discussion, but that said without reverting to the awful rude spiteful behaviour of some other forums I could mention.
At least on here the majority of members know how to behave toward one another.
Tibbs
Cowichan, I respect your opinion, that you are already out and suggest the rest of us scarper to gold miners in countries in better jurisdictions. Well many of these are actually in African countries from Tanzania to Mali, which have proved at the least problematic, and even South Africa that looks far more dangerous than Egypt, or Argentina with its exchange controls, Peru with its left wing government that made Hoc tumble, Columbia with its insurgents, Chile with its increasing taxes on miners, problematic permitting etc etc. I would feel far safer with Centamin and a company that has not had its tax/royalties changed, mining in a peaceful out of the way area, in a country with an unpleasant leader but good for the company. It seems very fairly valued now, so there seems more likelihood of upside than down, in this long life near tier one miner, even if t is a shame that a main attraction, the high dividend, has reduced from most of the profit to min 30% tho actually a bit more. And a shame that they continue to pour money down African holes in the ground for their own aggrandisement, but overall it seems to me this is one of the safest gold miners to invest in rather than as you suggest super dangerous. So I am with Sisi Imho
Hi Mr Gnome,
Now that would worry me!
It would be bad form to disclose the size of my holding, but let me say that it is such that I feel I have every right to challenge Centamin and a right to honest answers, something that was obviously lacking in the past .
The last report was encouraging, the dividend is disappointing, but that said I am awaiting an improvement in both overall performance and the dividend!
If Cowichan or anyone else asks questions that are based on incorrect facts or media speculation then the company has every opportunity to answer them , indeed it is its best interests to do so!
Tibbs
Good Morning Daz,
There is nothing wrong in challenging the company on all manner of anything that is misunderstood or needs come clarification, indeed in a conversation with Martin Horgan he expressed the view that share holders have every right and should ask questions, it is healthy and the company has had and continues to have the opportunity too respond or engage in dialogue if it so chooses on all these enquires.
As a long term holder of Centamin I welcome Cowichan's enquiries and encourage all share holders not to behave like "Sheeple" and challenge anything and everything.
The failure to do so in the past and instead swallow the copious amounts of Pardey's & 'Youssefs s baloney is why Centamin is in the 'Spitoon" of the "Last stop saloon" .
It does seem a tad unbalanced....which does tend to diminish credibility or send people scurrying for motives
A sainthood? Perhaps a seat in the House of Lords?
the gnome
Thank you both for giving everyone the opportunity to have access to a much more balanced and informed presentation of the facts.
Your dialogue demonstrates how much better it is to debate a matter in a courteous and respectful manner which in turn encourages others to take part.
Best
Tibbs
Cowichan, your anti-Centamin/Egypt rhetoric is almost pathological. I’m interested in what’s driving that, what happened to you here, did you lose a lot of cash, or are you hoping to influence the price so you can take a position. I can’t think of any other reason you’d waste so much time on this board. Or, is it that Saint Cowichan is so overwhelmed with compassion for investors, that he is on a mission to enlighten them…I doubt it. 😇😅
Thank you for your balanced, honest posting.
Commentary/news articles - where do suggest I get correct info on Egypt?
For instance, here's an Egyptian journalist comment I read the other day:
"Between mismanagement of the economy, exchange rate problems, government weakness, and parliament's statements on transfers. Egyptians' remittances will decrease by at least 25-30% compared to last year, when remittances reached more than $30 billion."
https://twitter.com/asyooty_el
I read many such dire statements by academics living in Egypt. If I were making this stuff up myself perhaps you'd have a point - i.e. refraining from predicting a poor outcome for Centamin and Egypt.
But what is worse, staying invested in Centamin and losing one's investment - or getting out while their is still time & reinvesting in a better managed company in a much safer jurisdiction? I would think any reasonable person would choose safety - and wish the same for his neighbor?
Oh, one more thing. Don't you think Sisi is a certified lunatic? There is a video of him circulating where he's lecturing a stadium of people about his having a conversation with the 'Lord' . Sisi thinks he's some sort of prophet of God sent to deliver the Egyptians. That alone is worrying enough to stay away from investing until he's removed from power. Link here:
https://twitter.com/hossambahgat/status/1684893348069269504
One more point in his interview... Mr Samih Sawiris said (Actually for my tourism projects in Egypt, I pay less expenses now because the tourists pay me in dollars, and I pay my expenses in Egyptian pound, and as the value of the Egyptian pound has halved, so it's costing me less dollars to pay for things like electricity).. and he was very happy for that..
Which is exactly what I said about Centamin.. it's income is in dollars, while many expenses are in Egyptian pound, so the company is actually paying less for many things..
Hi Cowichan,
I'm back again as you are talking about Egypt :)
This article and the headline are completely misleading, incomplete and taken out of context..
The full interview with Mr Samih Sawiris is in this link..
https://arabic.cnn.com/middle-east/article/2023/05/03/samih-sawiris-inviestments-egypt-saudi-future
The reporter was talking to him about the dollar situation in Egypt, then she asked him (Have you stopped entering in new projects in Egypt for the time being due to the current dollar exchange rate/situation?)
He replied (Yes of course, I can't calculate any profits in this situation, so everyone is "waiting")..
Then, later in the conversation, she asked him (You showed interest before in Saudi Arabia.. Do you have any plans for projects in Saudi?)
He replied (Yes, I'm looking at a few things in Saudi and already in negotiations because Saudi is very promising and the recent development there is like a revolution because they have changed everything and it's up to date now and in a few years Saudi will be the biggest place for investment).. that's it!!
I can't see anything wrong with that.. a businessman found an opportunity for a few projects in Saudi Arabia.. that does not mean he is relocating.. Even football players are going to Saudi now because of the huge financial potential there.. it does not mean the premier League and La Liga are finished..
When Mr Naguib Sawiris started his gold company outside Egypt, this was not relocation.. it was an opportunity outside Egypt..
The 3 Sawiris brothers are by far the richest family in Egypt.. their huge projects and investments are everywhere.. they know how to make money in Egypt..
-----------------
Regarding (Public sector = loose money = corruption), Mr Sawiris was replying to someone asking him in a tweet (What are the reasons behind EgyptAir losses?)..
So his reply was because it is a public sector company with its finance not monitored which led to corruption.. He was not talking about (Egypt economic misfortune), and you could go back to the original tweet you posted..
You really need to take it easy on looking for something and blow it out of proportion to show that it's the end of Egypt and Centamin.. Of course there are many problems and negatives in both, I admit that, but it's not the end of days as you are making it..
One last question to you Cowichan.. what did you mean by (The end could be sooner than shareholders think) ?
Thanks for this healthy exchange which is useful for other shareholders and readers..
Siko
Egyptian billionaire and renowned businessman, Naguib Sawiris has defended the decision of his brother, Samih, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Orascom Development Holding Company, to suspend all investment activities in Egypt and relocate to Saudi Arabia.
"People should not assume bad faith in a family or in a person or individual like Samih or myself when we say something, (..) Today, many investors are afraid to come [to Egypt] because they do not know what the US dollar price will be tomorrow," Naguib said in a telephone interview with Al-Hadath Al-Youm TV channel, which he posted on his Twitter page.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230512-egypts-billionaire-naguib-sawiris-defends-brothers-decision-to-relocate-investments-to-saudi-arabia/
------------------------------>>>>
Yes, it's an article from May 12, 2023 - but the smart money always flees first.
More recently (June 25, 2023) Naguib posted on his twitter account (speaking about Egypt 's economic misfortunes) “Public sector = loose money = corruption.”
https://twitter.com/NaguibSawiris/status/1673009454298669059
Bottom Line: Centamin has had plenty of time to diversify out of Egypt, but management sat on their hands and wasted shareholder funds hand over fist - the end could be sooner than shareholders think.