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Good Morning Daz,
There is nothing wrong in challenging the company on all manner of anything that is misunderstood or needs come clarification, indeed in a conversation with Martin Horgan he expressed the view that share holders have every right and should ask questions, it is healthy and the company has had and continues to have the opportunity too respond or engage in dialogue if it so chooses on all these enquires.
As a long term holder of Centamin I welcome Cowichan's enquiries and encourage all share holders not to behave like "Sheeple" and challenge anything and everything.
The failure to do so in the past and instead swallow the copious amounts of Pardey's & 'Youssefs s baloney is why Centamin is in the 'Spitoon" of the "Last stop saloon" .
It does seem a tad unbalanced....which does tend to diminish credibility or send people scurrying for motives
A sainthood? Perhaps a seat in the House of Lords?
the gnome
Thank you both for giving everyone the opportunity to have access to a much more balanced and informed presentation of the facts.
Your dialogue demonstrates how much better it is to debate a matter in a courteous and respectful manner which in turn encourages others to take part.
Best
Tibbs
Cowichan, your anti-Centamin/Egypt rhetoric is almost pathological. I’m interested in what’s driving that, what happened to you here, did you lose a lot of cash, or are you hoping to influence the price so you can take a position. I can’t think of any other reason you’d waste so much time on this board. Or, is it that Saint Cowichan is so overwhelmed with compassion for investors, that he is on a mission to enlighten them…I doubt it. 😇😅
Thank you for your balanced, honest posting.
Commentary/news articles - where do suggest I get correct info on Egypt?
For instance, here's an Egyptian journalist comment I read the other day:
"Between mismanagement of the economy, exchange rate problems, government weakness, and parliament's statements on transfers. Egyptians' remittances will decrease by at least 25-30% compared to last year, when remittances reached more than $30 billion."
https://twitter.com/asyooty_el
I read many such dire statements by academics living in Egypt. If I were making this stuff up myself perhaps you'd have a point - i.e. refraining from predicting a poor outcome for Centamin and Egypt.
But what is worse, staying invested in Centamin and losing one's investment - or getting out while their is still time & reinvesting in a better managed company in a much safer jurisdiction? I would think any reasonable person would choose safety - and wish the same for his neighbor?
Oh, one more thing. Don't you think Sisi is a certified lunatic? There is a video of him circulating where he's lecturing a stadium of people about his having a conversation with the 'Lord' . Sisi thinks he's some sort of prophet of God sent to deliver the Egyptians. That alone is worrying enough to stay away from investing until he's removed from power. Link here:
https://twitter.com/hossambahgat/status/1684893348069269504
One more point in his interview... Mr Samih Sawiris said (Actually for my tourism projects in Egypt, I pay less expenses now because the tourists pay me in dollars, and I pay my expenses in Egyptian pound, and as the value of the Egyptian pound has halved, so it's costing me less dollars to pay for things like electricity).. and he was very happy for that..
Which is exactly what I said about Centamin.. it's income is in dollars, while many expenses are in Egyptian pound, so the company is actually paying less for many things..
Hi Cowichan,
I'm back again as you are talking about Egypt :)
This article and the headline are completely misleading, incomplete and taken out of context..
The full interview with Mr Samih Sawiris is in this link..
https://arabic.cnn.com/middle-east/article/2023/05/03/samih-sawiris-inviestments-egypt-saudi-future
The reporter was talking to him about the dollar situation in Egypt, then she asked him (Have you stopped entering in new projects in Egypt for the time being due to the current dollar exchange rate/situation?)
He replied (Yes of course, I can't calculate any profits in this situation, so everyone is "waiting")..
Then, later in the conversation, she asked him (You showed interest before in Saudi Arabia.. Do you have any plans for projects in Saudi?)
He replied (Yes, I'm looking at a few things in Saudi and already in negotiations because Saudi is very promising and the recent development there is like a revolution because they have changed everything and it's up to date now and in a few years Saudi will be the biggest place for investment).. that's it!!
I can't see anything wrong with that.. a businessman found an opportunity for a few projects in Saudi Arabia.. that does not mean he is relocating.. Even football players are going to Saudi now because of the huge financial potential there.. it does not mean the premier League and La Liga are finished..
When Mr Naguib Sawiris started his gold company outside Egypt, this was not relocation.. it was an opportunity outside Egypt..
The 3 Sawiris brothers are by far the richest family in Egypt.. their huge projects and investments are everywhere.. they know how to make money in Egypt..
-----------------
Regarding (Public sector = loose money = corruption), Mr Sawiris was replying to someone asking him in a tweet (What are the reasons behind EgyptAir losses?)..
So his reply was because it is a public sector company with its finance not monitored which led to corruption.. He was not talking about (Egypt economic misfortune), and you could go back to the original tweet you posted..
You really need to take it easy on looking for something and blow it out of proportion to show that it's the end of Egypt and Centamin.. Of course there are many problems and negatives in both, I admit that, but it's not the end of days as you are making it..
One last question to you Cowichan.. what did you mean by (The end could be sooner than shareholders think) ?
Thanks for this healthy exchange which is useful for other shareholders and readers..
Siko
Egyptian billionaire and renowned businessman, Naguib Sawiris has defended the decision of his brother, Samih, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Orascom Development Holding Company, to suspend all investment activities in Egypt and relocate to Saudi Arabia.
"People should not assume bad faith in a family or in a person or individual like Samih or myself when we say something, (..) Today, many investors are afraid to come [to Egypt] because they do not know what the US dollar price will be tomorrow," Naguib said in a telephone interview with Al-Hadath Al-Youm TV channel, which he posted on his Twitter page.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230512-egypts-billionaire-naguib-sawiris-defends-brothers-decision-to-relocate-investments-to-saudi-arabia/
------------------------------>>>>
Yes, it's an article from May 12, 2023 - but the smart money always flees first.
More recently (June 25, 2023) Naguib posted on his twitter account (speaking about Egypt 's economic misfortunes) “Public sector = loose money = corruption.”
https://twitter.com/NaguibSawiris/status/1673009454298669059
Bottom Line: Centamin has had plenty of time to diversify out of Egypt, but management sat on their hands and wasted shareholder funds hand over fist - the end could be sooner than shareholders think.
Thanks Steve
Perhpas \I will become a day trader, none of this long term BS.
The levels of uncertainty not to mention lying and loss of trust is bewildering.
Here is some of the new entertainment in USA ... which passes for politics, or political comedy or something like that
The “Facebook Files” story Jordan went on to tell revealed a worst-case scenario for modern digital censorship, in which the White House not only strong-armed Facebook to remove content, but did so over exactly the kind of speech the Constitution was designed to protect, political satire. Not only that, but the White House’s demand had clear political motivation. A law professor would have a difficult time scripting an episode more directly offensive to the First Amendment.
https://www.racket.news/p/the-new-facebook-files-show-everything?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
|Just hopeless ...
best
the gnome
I don't always win - the last time I posted a trade here it was a loss- eg 2% S/L kicked in, when my profit didn't hit my target so I held too long- but I tend to protect myself this way, but let profits run sometimes which can be a fault. I don't worry about the SP at all eg if I sell with a profit and it jumps and I'm out too early, I'm equally happy to go back in at a far higher price if I think the data tells me to do so. Today has caught me out a little, but not to S/L level... yet... will see Monday. I'm surprised at the closing 93.7 as the FTSE, US is flying, and gold rose and yet CEY dropped, although UK miners didn't do great overall today. However, Barrick and Newmont going well now in USA as I type so will watch to see where they, and gold closes. Of course, I cannot trade until 08:00 Monday. Will see what that day brings. Have a good weekend.
Steve
I have done those type of trades in the past at 60,000 sells here on CEY. It is great when you can pull those kind of moves off. I presume it is Michelin star restaurant this weekend or something nice. Tony
I went back in again after US data released @~94. Surprised it dropped a bit, but expect this is good entry point. I went out yesterday @~99.2 avg on data. I traded approx 100k shares. Like I said, can't win them all, but aim to win more than lose- will hold these unless loss gets past my S/L
$1960
Data point on Michigan view on inflation. Last time it goes up a little bit and they hammered gold. This time the data all goes the other way. Lets see what happens now.
Also I keep saying it doesn’t matter what you or I or anyone else thinks what is fair value or not - stocks with primary drivers like cey never work like this - work within the system - you’ll drive yourself nuts otherwise
Just trade around data points- I keep sending a link to data points that move gold and the timings/ not always 100% right but am 75% of the time- why people don’t sell and buy around these is beyond me -
Steve,
Yesterday at lunch time it was 98p. I go the cinema and see Oppenheimer get back to close and it was 94.8p. To trade a volatile stock becomes a 100% job. Also you can trade positions out and the stock fires up quickly and you reduce the yield that one is trying to hedge out on a portfolio. At the moment the Centamin share price is hugely undervalued against the valuation it was given back in April. The company has also performed better than cost expectations and built in 20,000 ounces of protection put that becomes profitable at $1875 per ounce. Centamin share price at $1950 gold should be around 104p-106p at least and that includes taking sterling increased valuation vs USD.
Trading is the way on short term movements. for all the crap on gold going to new highs and US going into recession is not reality for now. If your long, offset , short until what you believe becomes real. For me if I didn't trade this year for little profits I make, I would be underwater . It's a game, maybe manipulated in some way but if you don't follow the information and trend you be playing along time to turn a profit.
Try trading it instead of holding
One day of a bit of a rise and then its back to a good kick in the crotch and down again!
Centamin were once unhedged, now forced through bad past management to start hedging!
The share price is buggered until the remaining other 25% of waste is cleared! to reduce the AISC!
Why not just leave the numbers in the garage bin and then just chuck them out altogether once a month .
Fair comments Mr Bond, good or bad news or even manipulated NFP results and retail spending figures, any reason you could possibly mention , even those that are really not connected in any way to Cemtamin or gold they are all an excuse for the market to churn the shares!
Be very interesting to see how the share price stabilised if it were possible to stop constantly waiting on and putting such emphasis on NFP and all the other unrelated crap that changes every minute and hour of every day and report once a month, it may well result in more stability to the markets and share prices
Fair comments Cowichan !
Also yesterday GDP Price Index was lower than expected at 2.2%