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Mr Tibbles , Horgan in his speech said "Possible Bonanza Grades" .
He did not promise because he does not use a crystal ball.
Try, though for you ,may be hard ,look to the future and the realitity , and not the history.addictor
All you do is appear to be contraie, and seemingly annoying trying no doubt to undermine any confidence.
There are many investors/traders here, who are not without intellegence.
Keep well and remember any medications.
Come on Daz, have you been smoking something through the "Hubble bubble" and looking at some desert mirage of "Bonanza grades "?
Take off those very rose coloured glasses and face the reality ,Centamin has yet to deliver an awful lot if its promises are real and not more balony!
The management spoke with forked tongue in the past, why trust them now, I wont until I see the share price at least doubled and a proper dividend reinstated!
I fail to see how we have received a 29% return considering the the share price has been on it's ar(se in the sick bucket for the past 3 years or so whilstover the last year the dividend has been halved to"Scraps' when competed to savings interest rates!
And a different perspective “ Centamin shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 29% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 1.4% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper.”
Investors in Centamin (LON:CEY) have unfortunately lost 19% over the last three years
n his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Centamin saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 6.2% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 12% annual reduction in the share price.
So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy.
https://tinyurl.com/mpkavvhk
As is the case with everything Egyptian - it's yet to be clarified to which companies the profit shares dividend tax will be applied. Nonetheless it's another hammer in the hand of a cash strapped country.
Of note Centamin currently pays penalties (which is just another form of taxation) above and beyond the standard 50/50 profit share agreement each year (these are tucked away in AGM notes as determinations between EMRA and Centamin) - but I digress
2023 of 30 .:No Law
تار>خ :رادصلإا ١٥ ينوي و ٢٠٢٣ 2023
June 15 :Date Issuance
The law stipulates the amendment of some
provisions of the Income Tax Law No. 91 of
2005 and Law No. 182 of 2020, as follows:
I- the establishment of the Supreme Tax Council, which shall be headed by the prime
minister, to ensure the rights of taxpayers of all types and assist them in fulfilling their
legal obligations imposed by tax laws;
K- determining cases in which the company’s profit shares dividend are subject to tax rate
of 10% (ten per cent) or 5% (five per cent)
N- determining cases for:
- linking non-final taxes due on establishments and companies from the effective date of the law;
- cases where non-payment would be tolerated; and
- tax exemption continuation.
https://www.adsero.me/storage/uploads/blogs/pdf/euIz4SClczqOaJVDnfXGiiBuP0azN39DdzeMLAMF.pdf
As you can see the changes give extreme leeway to the newly created Supreme Tax Council , granting exemptions where they see fit (or are bribed into seeing fit?!)
Also, there are numerous other fees and taxes newly imposed - import fees and the like, which could make inflation and importing new equipment more costly
Just in case you missed it
SIMPLY WALLST
Hello Daniel, you have 1 new important update for CEY
Centamin
CEY
Share Price 7 Day 1 Year
0.93 -4.4% 10.7%
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12%
The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated.
2023 EPS estimate increased from US$0.124 to US$0.138.
Revenue forecast steady at US$882.2m.
Net income forecast to grow 98% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom.
Consensus price target up from UK£1.30 to UK£1.34.
Share price rose 2.1% to UK£0.95 over the past week.
GLTA,
Dan
Mizolgit,
Amazing that such 4 years of Havoc" could have been brought about by such minute movements !
What a pity then that the management and certain BOD had failed to notice that fit for purpose mining methods hadn't been applied since 2015 causing the gradient of the open pit walls to become too steep and that the appropriate waste clearance of spoil had'nt taken place !
That said they failed too acknowledge the importance of the ore from the underground workings which is essential to supplement the at time mediocre open pit grades and also failed to ensure that the re was adequate ventilation with appropriate access and egress to the underground working's , amazing that such things could have brought the operation to near ruination, or was it more amazing that the shysters got away with chancing it for by glossing over the true facts to share holders!
Then it wouldn't have been necessary to instigate a four year mine major pit re sculpturing that has amplified AISC to record levels resulting in a 70% or so reduction of the share price with a 50% reduction in dividend!
Major stock indexes in Europe traded lower in the premarket on Thursday as investors observed the newest batch of corporate earnings and economic prints. ING, Societe Generale, BMW, Adidas and Lufthansa were among some of the companies that revealed their quarterly reports. In data, the focus will be on composite PMIs, Swiss CPI and German trade balance. Meanwhile, the Bank of England will be sharing its interest rate decision later today.
The DAX decreased 0.32% at 8:08 am CET, while the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.41% and the FTSE 100 declined 0.45% at the same time. The CAC 40 lost 0.32%.
The euro was down by 0.09% against the dollar at 7:46 am CET, selling for 1.09277. The pound traded 0.08% lower against the greenback and went for 1.269 concurrently.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
*The only woman who loves a poor man unconditionally is his mother. 😂
The economy clearly isn’t reacting in the usual way to the Fed’s tightening; it is much stronger than normal and stronger than expected. Why is that?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/whats-happening-economy-great-wealth-transfer-ray-dalio/?published=t
Tibbles there was no near catastrophic wall failure ,just a minute movement or vibration ,measured by sensors.
Then acted on.
I accept the there have been some changes in the board room, however one former senior member is now non executive and one who is still in post should have been aware of what wasn't happening at Sukari. I have referred as such in some previous posts, that said had some of that new board familiarised themselves earlier with the Sukari operation then possibly some management plan to rectify bad practice sooner rather than only after a near catastrophe of pit wall failure with the loss of market confidence could have been put in place..
I await to see the promised turnaround delivered
Mrtibbles, you often say how the board of directors are at fault for pardey-era events. Here are their start dates:
Rutherford Jan 2020
Horgan April 2020
Jerrard Feb 2018
Eyre April 2019
Cloete Sept 2019
Farrow. Sept 2019
Faul July 2020
Fawzy August 2018
Bankes Feb 2011
The Pardey resignation was October 2019. So a case to be made that the majority of th Board are the cause of the change for the better under Horgan? What do you think?
Bit late their Tony- happened earlier and has been recovering ever since l, now vix futures up only just under 3% as I type…
Usual stuff, markets need a catalyst to “do something” in the absence of anything else.
Great comment from Michael Gapen earlier - where are all those people who said all during 2021, 2022 and 2023 “ guaranteed recession and so on… (accept there are a few around but minor, not the key USA).
GAPEN(bank of America) REVERSES RECESSION CALL “Recent incoming data has made us reassess our prior view that a mild recession in 2024 is the most likely outcome for the US economy. Growth and economic activity over the past 3 quarters has averaged 2.3%, the unemployment rate has remained near all time lows, and wage and price pressures are moving in the right direction, albeit gradually”
Michael Gapen
Head of US Economics
Something is brewing in the equity markets after USA Fitch downgrading.
Hi 3Bear,
I have to disagree, if you care to scroll back over the years you will finf that Cowichan has been very proactive at times in promoting good news about the company and has actually brought positive news to our attention that we mayy not otherwise have known about.
Also he does raise the issue of only wanting the view of events through the rose coloured glasses indeed i have been guilty of that far oo many times in the past !
I remain suspicious of what we are being told until we some proof that the the "Reset" has occurred by a substantialist fall in AISC and the promised and sustained production.
In the past I chose to believe Andrew Pardey and the managements statements and forward predictions rather then those of an independent but very experienced mining analyst Kees Dekker who warned that all wasn't as wall as claimed at Sukari, an expensive mismake on my part!
Andrew Pardey lied to me on cellphone call ins on two occasions and he declined to answer my correspondence occasions.
The Sukari operation was deliberately run using by bad mining methods for short term gain although that was consistently denied by Andrew Pardey and I find it hard to believe that the Jersey BOD were as they now claim unaware, also how many years did the company waste time and money on the Cleopatra slope which delivered anything and what now of the claimed underground "Bonanza grades' they haven't materialised, so was this a case of yet more "Baloney grades!"
But hat said I remain a substantial Shere holder and I shall continue to try to get some answers although that is increasingly difficult or near on impossible, so a big thank you to Cowichan and in the meantime I await to the 'Proof in the pudding" and hope we haven't been taken in again!
Thanks Fitch :-(
I concur, Cowichan. Astute traders would invariably conduct thorough research, considering both positive and negative news before making investment decisions. When a trader delves into discussions concerning companies they have no vested interest in, it raises curiosity about their motives.
Your comment, 'I've observed certain individuals posting critical remarks about other companies in which they have vested interests,' underscores a crucial point – when individuals are not invested in a particular company, and everyone else has diligently examined and chosen to invest in Centamin, it should come as no surprise that their demeanor might appear unusually off-center and cranky to Centamin investors.
Major stock indexes traded lower in the premarket on Wednesday as investors continued to digest the latest manufacturing data on the continent, which seemingly raised concerns over the economic outlook.
Meanwhile, the sentiment also seems to have been affected by the Fitch Ratings' downgrade of the United States credit rating, which was adjusted from AAA to AA+.
The DAX tumbled 0.72% at 7:34 am CET, while the Euro Stoxx 50 and the CAC 40 both slid 0.68% at the same time. The FTSE 100 declined 0.54% simultaneously.
The euro edged up 0.10% against the dollar at 7:40 am CET, selling for 1.09957. The pound was flat against the greenback, going for 1.27809 concurrently.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Happy hump y’al
Https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
Exactly all indicators for US in red,
WTF why gold price drops?
Does this chat board exist to only post positive messages - regardless of management?
Or put another way, would you prefer negative information about Centamin be suppressed ?
I've read the comments some here post regarding other companies in which they also invest, and many of those comments are critical - to the point they question why they held the shares despite a declining share price. I never once considered censuring them, or asking them why they post - on the contrary - I would welcome learning from their experience.
But perhaps that's a result of non-anonymity. I routinely discuss investments publicly here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-lawson-98619370/
It's not that I don't trust you as anonymous posters (well actually I don't) it's that I question who invests their money with a blindfold over their eyes and insist any negative detractors put a gag in their mouths.
Also, I've answered your questions before , I am still willing to invest in Egypt , but only if and when Centamin's management is replaced by competent individuals more concerned with the wellbeing of the company than enriching themselves & their cohorts.
The number of conflict of interests the current CEO Mr Horgan has racked up in his 3 and a half long years is astounding - if not bordering on criminal.
Cowichan glad to know you're not one to shoot the jester...just dunno why you never have anything even mildly positive to say about this company - your analysis is unremittingly catastrophically negative, why are you doing this?
I can understand the troll remark from 007. Cowichan, I think I read you’re not invested in Centamin, is that right? Then why hangout on the board? Perhaps you have a bit of a vendetta against the company. It does come across as troll like behaviour, perhaps you don’t see that? Unless you’re considering getting in again and hoping to contribute a pessimistic outlook to the board, hoping to save a few pennies.
The CFO was on board with what a lot was delivered along with a host of staff involved in a cost efficiency drive involving $150M per annum. All of those teams deserve credit as well.
As for Centamin in the past and what it is now. Well a leader can look good when they extract what is good at the time and leave a polluted mess behind as they do not get care about the inheritance to others. It is the leader who is a builder who is not the emperor in his own kingdom, has a vision of leaving behind value, excepts criticism and feedback as it generates an environment of creativity and efficiency, has the strength (and humour) in that role supporting development of others is the true and better leader as they leave behind the aspiration in others of an example of being the best they can be. Tony
Hi 3bear,
I appreciate the candor and humor. Admittedly I do wear the pessimist mantle. But for the sake of nostalgia let's compare the way we were (plug to BS - that's Barbara Streisand not the other BS) to where we are now - and see if Centamin has become the world class outfit other miners might want to emulate.
Then (from 2018 AGM Presentation) file:///C:/Users/peter/Downloads/cey-investor-presentation-2018-agm-260318.pdf
1) Self-performing, self-funding and staged development approach
2) Becoming a multi-asset gold producer maintaining a lowest-quartile cost profile
3) Creating long-term returns on shareholders capital , dividend 12.5 cents US
4) Exploration spend is results driven. 2018 ~$38m
5) Cash on hand $418 million
6) Lowest cost quartile gold producer - forecast AISC $770/oz
7) Overall head grade 1.57 g/t
8) Strip ratio 3.4x including low-grade material (down from 4.7x in 2016)
9) zero hedging
Now
1) LOC Ready To Be Deployed (& paying over $10 million in annual fees to maintain its existence while undrawn)
2) Still becoming multi-asset (if Doropo gets a green light) by 2027ish & forgetta bouta lowest quartile costs, forever
3) Long term share price performance flat , dividend a small fraction of 2016,2017,2018, etc
4) Exploration spend almost non-existent
5) Cash on hand less than a quarter of 2018
6) Highest cost quartile gold producer - forecast $1300 - $1400 (doubled since 2018)
7) Overall head grade sub 1g
8) Strip ratio double or triple and no end in sight
9) buying forward sales puts (costing $6+ million for 2023 alone)
A note to 007 - who is the troll? Your laser focused fascination with me would be flattering if you weren't so creepy. Come out of the shadows and talk - I'm not hiding under a bridge attacking like you , troll
https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-lawson-98619370/
In all seriousness, and for what it is worth, I think Martin Horgan is a superb CEO, he has the bit between his teeth. the work he is doing at sukari, or rather the work his mine manager is doing under his direction has given me massive confidence in the management of the open pit in that we will not see any sudden drops from here. The focus on safety, that a safe mine is a well-run mine by definition (DASUT any views on this?) rings true to a non-mining investor like me. The ounces growth will not be as fast as some would like but his emphasis is on sustainable growth. Isn't sustainable growth the holy grail of good investment? This stock is not without risk - every possible, fabulous and imaginable wibble wobble wahoo WTF I have issues type risk is put on here by cowichan. But the bottom line is this is a well run business in a slightly risky set of jurisdictions. If you are happy with the latter, then invest as much as you feel comfortable with and I think things will go well. I'm all in at this point at an average 95.8. Doesn't mean I don't regret doing a steve and offloading at 99 to pick up at 93 the other day hey ho - but on balance this is a good long term bet. Good luck everyone.