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3bear I thoroughly agree that a safe incident free mine will normally be an efficient highly productive mine. Emphasis on the word normally because currently Sukari isn't an efficiently run mine. Why is because the strip ratio due to the abnormal waste removal inevitably means costs are abnormally high.
If however the cost reductions in other areas weren't in place then we would see far worse numbers, so credit due to the current management team for some good strategies.
I don't see Sukari becoming an efficient, productive acceptable profitable operation until the waste contract has finished.
I generally read and hear good things happening at Sukari and that they are pretty much over the major hurdles created by the less than efficient few years prior to 2020.
The proof of the restructuring of management and the operations will not be fully understood until we see a mining operation not a mining operation with an expensive non profitable muck shifting project carbuncle needing to be lanced and removed.
Unfortunately the carbuncle has taken years to develop and will take a little longer to be removed.
Payrolls miss which is good- US employment good which is not so good, however most commentary (SO FAR) seems to be good for gold- here's hoping it continues...
Why gold futures volume is so high and spot gold volumes are so small.
Hi Siko, fair and valid comments!
Unfortunately as with so many countries the world over the ordinary people are lovely and deserve better , its the greedy self serving out of touch politicians and rulers that are so desperate to stay on the gravy train so they continue to kick that very flawed can down the road to keep the status quo, or even grab a bit more, that will always be the problem for the foreseeable future
Keep well!
Tibbs
Fair comments and good points Daz!
I too hope for proof of the plans success
Tibbs
Hi Paul,
I'm glad that you understand what I am getting at, you will likely remember when I had been given in good faith by others that the "Good times were coming", they were as dismayed as I when once again our hopes where dashed by supposed unexpected occurrences and I was certainly more than dismayed when I realised that I had in some respects, albeit unintentionally let others like yourself down.
My acquaintance who used to pass on what they believed to reliable information is now as cautious as I about taking anything the company says on face value, its unfortunate that we have doubts about what may be truthful updates and claims, but after being deliberately misinformed by those who should have behaved more honourably and until there is actual evidence of AISC at more reasonable levels, a sustained delivery of predicted guidance and some substantial improvement the the share price and dividend then I urge everyone to view Centamin with caution!
I will be more than delighted if all my suspicions are proven to be unfounded!
Keep well!
Tibbs
All depends what is reported today at 13:30- need a miss else
Gold will go down further and cey with it- else opposite
Data from USA lay off tracker
Yellow Corp 30,000 job losses 31 July
CVS 5,000 2 days ago,
FEDEX 280 jobs in Texas as seeing recession impacts.
Microsoft 1,000 jobs late July.
Biogen 1,000 jobs late July 1/8 th of workforce.
A lot of smaller companies facing cash flow crisis.
I'd love it if the plan came together Daz.
I understand where Mr T is coming from and the whole thing about the wall. I also accept that sensors had only detected tiny movement-------but I think the wall did actually need dealing with before it became dangerous and to open up other areas of the mine. It could probably been done at a slower pace over a longer time, but it was probably thought that it was worth the (not exactly) short term pain for the hopeful long term gain to be had from opening up other areas.
TIME WILL TELL -----And I'm hoping the plan comes together and we get more gold out of the ground at lower costs, make more profit and get a decent dividend again, without dodgy practices. If it does come together like that, then the share price should start to fly.
If we get decent profits and a decent dividend or special dividend, I think the market would react.
The number one risk appears to be USA Treasuries increasing in the interest rate they are offering which may depress gold prices. However, we have a backdrop of USA data manipulating inflation through Government give aways to students, via health and social welfare, by releasing millions of barrels of strategic oil supplies which help subsidise nearly everything not just gasoline at the pump. The rate of growth of fiscal expenditure is taking off in USA and hence 300 billion plus in long dated Treasuries. USA is already on 125% GDP ratio on debt and it was taken down by Fitch for good reason.
Yellen claimed USA was the least dirty shirt compared to others yet an examination covered by an analyst on Bloomberg could site 9 other triple AAA rated Fitch ratings that were vastly better shape than USA and the down rating on lifting government debt that does not appear to have a ceiling to 2025 raises a lot of concerns.
Today we have make believe NFP numbers as August is usually heavily revised. Many people are on holiday in USA in August and the return data is reliant on assumption inputted by officials on non-returns. September has a similar problem if data was fractionally dependent on August collection. There is significant evidence of companies not sending in data allowing officials to fudge data on what they collect. The key may therefore looking at numbers of business failures which are increasing in USA amongst smaller companies.
Overall, I see stagflation and that history suggests that gold tends to remain fairly supportive in those circumstances regardless of higher long term rates. I also question who wants to really buy USA Treasuries from abroad. I was under the impression the FED could end up being the only buying source along with any banks they can bully to buy them as they will bail them out later on with money printing and currency debasement.
I therefore hold for better times with Centamin.
I concur with Siko's observation. It is quite peculiar for a non-investor to linger on a board without any investment, merely to make disparaging remarks. The envisioned transformation in Egypt, which Cowichan is anticipating, appears distant. However, it seems that his true intention is not to advocate for change in Egypt but rather to generate pessimism and seize an advantageous position at the cost of others.
Cowichan,
By the way, I stated many times before that I don't hold any Centamin shares as I don't have the money to do so, hence my posts are only replies to comments regarding Egypt and the things that could be misunderstood or misrepresented about what goes on in Egypt.. I'm Egyptian, I love my country and will defend it when appropriate.. saying that, of course there are many bad things in Egypt, very bad indeed..
You will see that I don't reply to comments like (share price will go down) or (management of Centamin is bad), because that has nothing to do with me..
But to be honest, and as my personal view, and I could well be wrong, if you are not going to invest in Centamin untill Egypt reboots (as you stated before), then you will be waiting for years.. so you may as well move on and look for other better opportunities to invest in.. it's just very strange that you can't find one positive thing about the company, and you are still interested in it..
Cowichan,
Is that lawyer aware of the details of law 222 year 1994 (Centamin concession agreement) which clearly states Centamin' exemption from any taxes? I posted here before a link to the full details of the law/concession.
Does he know it's a law? Which requires parliamentary agreement to change any of its details, and that was why the Administrative Court did not even consider Alfakharany's request to cancel it?
I understand of course he is a specialized in the tax subject in Egypt, but he may not be aware of Centamin's law because tax lawyers in Egypt would not come across it.
Also in Arabic, Point (K) is clearly talking about determining the cases in which dividend (profits) distributions are subject to taxes, so this will affect people's income, not the company. (Companies' profit share) in that sentence, in Arabic, is reflecting the dividend that the share holders would get, not the(profit share) as the 50/50 between Egypt/Centamin..
Tibbs, reminiscing about the past can be a tempting exercise, one must acknowledge that mere discussions won't alter the current reality that management is achieving their desired projections, while significantly reducing waste. The implementation of Horgan's strategies appears to be progressing seamlessly as per the intended plan. 2023 year holds the promise of a remarkable development in the form of the discovery of underground bonanza high grades and the seamless integration of these findings into the underground mining plan has the potential to yield a substantial increase in output for the year 2024, potentially surpassing the projected 500,000 oz by an impressive 50-100k oz. As a consequence of these developments, the opportunity to invest at this juncture is obviously an enticing prospect. Centamin finds itself amidst a period of growth, with a convergence of accomplishments and promising prospects that make it a particularly appealing and opportune moment for investors seeking to capitalize on the company's positive trajectory. Exciting stuff, we’ll see…one morning we’ll wake up to an RNS and Boom!
In the words of John "Hannibal" Smith “I love it when a plan comes together” and ‘Hannibal Horgan’ has put together an A-team that is capable of it.
Major stock indexes in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Friday as investors anticipated more economic releases on the last working day of this week. On the agenda are German factory orders, the United Kingdom's construction PMI and the Eurozone's retail sales. Elsewhere, Commerzbank revealed its quarterly earnings results.
The DAX gained 0.45% at 8:00 am CET, while the CAC 40 rose 0.52% and the FTSE 100 added 0.17% at the same time. The Euro Stoxx 50 increased 0.60% simultaneously.
The euro traded flat against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for 1.09511. The pound stood was up 0.11% against the greenback and went for 1.27226 concurrently.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AY
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend!
Considering the limited resources Centamin have to do exploration - perhaps an equity placement or joint venture from/with a 3rd party to help facilitate growth in both Cote D'Ivoire & Egypt is in order?
An excerpt from B2Gold's Q2 results states they are looking for opportunities to put their $84 million exploration budget to use:
Exploration
B2Gold is executing another year of extensive exploration in 2023 with an increased budget of approximately $84 million (original budget of $64 million). A significant focus will be in proximity to its operating mines in Mali, Namibia and the Philippines, as well as $20 million of spending on both infill and generative exploration at the recently acquired Back River Gold District. Ongoing exploration will continue to advance B2Gold's early stage projects in Finland and Cote d’Ivoire. Target generation and pursuing new opportunities in prospective gold regions in Africa, Canada, South America, the Philippines and Central Asia continue. This generative initiative could include equity placements and new joint ventures with junior companies, similar to B2Gold's 2023 investments in Snowline and its Rogue project in the Yukon, Canada, and its 2022 investment in Matador Mining Ltd. and its Cape Ray Gold project in Newfoundland, Canada.
https://www.b2gold.com/news/b2gold-reports-q2-2023-results-strong-q2-2023-operating-results-position-b2gold-to-achieve-2023-annual-guidance-first-half-of-2023-cash-operating-costs-and-all-in-sustaining-costs-both-below-2023-guidance-ranges
IMO shared growth with diversification (and shared risk) is better than no growth
Yes I am aware of that, which is why I posted it.
I am not being negative,its being realistic considering how many times shareholders have been led up the garden path too many times in the past which is why I view any comany statements now with caution or possibly with scepticism!
No doubt Martin Horgan could sell ice to Eskimos, however It proof in the share price that is required and as yet its not forthcoming!
7 July 2022
Sukari Bonanza zones. The Bast area between Ptah and Amun continues to return high grade underground zones
of Bonanza style mineralisation. Drilling in this area, demonstrates a consistent geological host within 100m of
existing infrastructure which could improve underground operational flexibility through the development of a new
high-grade mining area in the near-term. Drilling highlights include:
o 10m at 64g/t Au, including 2m at 199g/t Au
o 4.5m at 267g/t Au, including 4m at 301.29g/t Au
o 17m at 12.5g/t Au, including 2.5m at 6.84g/t Au and 4m at 47.09g/t A
https://www.centamin.com/media/2836/cey-rns_-2q22-exploration-update_final.pdf
Centamin CEO predicts a gold bonanza at Sukari mine after geological re-assessment
By
Brendan Ryan -
Dec 8, 2021
Horgan described these as “bonanza high grade structures” located within both the open pit and underground mines which hosted very high grades of around 30g/t and higher.
https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/48335-centamin-ceo-predicts-a-gold-bonanza-at-sukari-mine-after-geological-re-assessment/
Centamin CEO Martin Horgan believes the geological work done at the group’s Sukari mine in Egypt over the last year has laid out the roadmap for the mine to consistently produce 500,000oz of gold annually over the next decade.
You may be right, or maybe not - the Egyptian business lawyer who specializes in the subject and brought it to my attention is still unclear just what sources of income to which it will apply.
But in case you have special knowledge in this area let's talk here:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-lawson-98619370/
Many thanks, the all the best to you and family and Egpyt in these strange times.
Thanks iko
Hi Cowichan,
This law is talking about income tax of individuals who get dividends or shares from a company's profit..
Centamin is exempt from any taxes imposed by the Egyptian government on the revenues generated from Sukary as per law 222 year 1994..
At least this is not in Mexico and is not Fresnillo. They have lost 32% so far this year and it look like it could fall further. Fortunately not holding that one.
Tibbs and Cowichan, you make quite a team these days, your collaboration, synergy & exaggerated negativity really complement each other. Remind me of the name given to would be investors that catastrophize to undermine sentiment. No, I’ve got it …it’s ‘Downramping’.
Tibbs, it’s quoting the end of the article you posted…’a different perspective’ https://tinyurl.com/mpkavvhk