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Never posted on the BP forum before, but the mention of Saudi got me started. I live here in the middle east, and I can assure you, as Sgurr put it the Saudis are in utter financial and economic turmoil of late, and frankly have been for some time. Make no mistake, they're on edge for a number of reasons not just oil. There's ever louder dissent arising from all four corners of the land. Saudi is run via tribal blood ties, and any impact of subsidies from their own pockets as has begun to happen, is beginning to cause more than just a stir believe me. They simply won't tolerate it. I've swung in the political ramblings a little while out here and know enough to know they are utterly bricking themselves regarding their future security. The yanks have hung them out to dry, Iran continues to twist their melons and the discontent and disharmony coming from within their own ranks speaks volumes for the state they're in. One thing is for certain Saudi can sustain oil below 30 bucks for a while, but not for long whatsoever now believe me. And then there's the growing factions of discontent amongst the general populous and ISIS growing within...
" One thing is for certain Saudi can sustain oil below 30 bucks for a while, but not for long whatsoever "
Nice post Stoodio.
In my view the part we should focus on it's not how long they can sustain below 30 a barrel but for how long everyone else can keep up.
I suspect that Trump made fresh agreements after the Saudi oil field proxy bombing in September. He used his leverage to bring them back to the discussion table few months ago and as much as I hate to admit it, he succeeded.
Terrorist groups? few hundred mil will keep everything under the carpet for now,defence budget spending after all.
The Saudis financial turmoil it's very real but I was also wondering, is it any worse than some Wester countries. Italy and Spain had to beg in EU for a financial relief measure,UK freestyling, US in tail spins and the list goes on.
"The Saudis financial turmoil it's very real but I was also wondering, is it any worse than some Wester countries. Italy and Spain had to beg in EU for a financial relief measure,UK freestyling, US in tail spins and the list goes on."
You really don't get it, mate. If the government in Italy or Spain falls the people in charge retire on a nice government pension, and occasionally get paid stupid amounts of money to go make speeches to groups that like what they did.
If the Saudi government falls, they will be beheaded.
Can the Saudis outlast everyone else? Maybe. But they don't dare find out how long they can outlast others, because a miscalculation is too costly.
I do not foresee any kind of extended price war on the part of the Saudis with the current regime in place. Russia might play that game again but the Saudis won't want to play it at all and certainly not for long.
TT
The Saudi government is a mix of commoners and the Royal family (the richest Royal family on the globe). They are unlikely to fall unless it's in the agenda of the US.
Their main trading partners are China India and the US... not happening anytime soon.
@SP. You just described the Shah of Iran's regime, I think.
Clearly, we won't agree, and it does affect how we see the future of oil prices, and to an extent, BP shares.
Different views sharing the same path :)
100 % positive it the Saudi Royal family they have been in power for more then 200 years.
So were the English in the US.....
Or India, Australia. Those were colonies ot the largest empire in history.
SP, not sure if you are looking for confrontation in your posts but try and adopt a little humour and show a little respect to fellow posters.
Not tat sure what the hells going on between TMT and yourself, but I assume you wont be exchanging Christmas cards...
It would be nice to get the posts back to a civilised state by all (I include myself in this - we all have our bad days)
Take care all.
@AKA, sorry, I didn't know it was coming across confrontational. Yeah, there were some other posts he had earlier (especially towards someone else) but on the Saudi discussion I didn't notice a bad tone, I just thought we disagreed. It's no crime to be mistaken on Saudi security/politics.
It might damage his investments sometime, of course, and I hope he never goes to live there without actually learning something first. But I didn't think our discussion on this was detrimental. I'll leave it be now.
Look probably we have different timeframe expectations on the SP . I am happy for another 20 year run and retirement money.
In this scenario I see the price of oil slowly slowly decreasing. Many factors in play ,not only an increasing green economy.
When I mentioned Venezuela I was pointing out that diversification must be a priority in our era. The manipulation of oil prices collapsed a Nation go figure what it could do to a company like BP.
Now quick tour, Venezuela was doing extremely well during Chavez presidency, they nationalised everything and pushed away foreign investors. All good because they were sitting on an ocean of oil.
Problem was that with isolation they never mastered how to get the oil out cheap.
When prices dropped the revenues from sales were not covering the expenses for extraction. now, we are not talking 40 bucks per barrel but well above. The results are under your eyes.
Is Looney doing a good job for BP in restructuring the company and scrapping investment in the North sea ? ( Mind the 20 year timeframe). I think yes,they have run few numbers before making strong statement.
If your timeframe is 5 years I understand your frustration.Manage expectations, good profits are still achievable at current sp .
However If price of oil doubles don't expect the BP, Shell,Exxon share prices to double as well operational costs are the main driver for the SP and every profitable company in general.
Trade futures for a 1 to 1 profit /loss on oil price movement.
Aka no confrontation at all.
Sorry you interpreted that way .
Nothing with TM or you on my side.
Last one :)
TM I have been in Ryad.
SP, most posters have good points to make and I'm not taking sides with any individuals.
It sounds like you have a good in-depth understanding of the oil industry (I particularly appreciated you comment on Ven not yet having the "appropriate" knowledge to extract economically considering what the naughty Iranians were up to a few weeks back).
TMT has many valid points as well, but with all comments (probably get in trouble for this one) do you prefer blondes or brunettes?
BBB has many valid points.
We all get frustrated when comments don't agree with our portfolio, or, start getting a little "near to the knuckle".
I have a lot of respect for all valid contributors, however, I do appreciate subjects may become a "little heated" from time to time, but hey, "lockdowns" over now according to BJ, what could possibly go wrong.
Keep the faith, keep the oil and, maybe, consider where the investment is coming from for the "left wing" green tech.
Take care.
"do you prefer blondes or brunettes?"
wrong conjunction
TMT, this was not pointed at your good self - I think "correct grammar" has perhaps, a little escaped; me during isolation but, didn't think this BB~ was the Covid alternative to the, now cancelled, [ ]A Level English Language exam.....
Popped a few bad punctuation and misplaced wordy to keep your embers burning.....
Have a glass of "chateau neuf du briand" …………
Sneaky Pete, of course you have been to Ryad, I bet you have been to the moon.
Sneaky Pete two ****es: Because if you have had one he has had two!
PS: What the **** is a conjunction!
Be civilised T100, a word used to connect sentences or words in the same clause - This is becoming embarrassing...….
Try this one - Alma mater. Aqua vitae, ars longa, vita brevis. Praemonitus, praemunitus. Caveat emptor......
Aka. I am well aware what a conjunction is but do you not thing this BB for Oilers is becoming a tad pretentious?
Ah ! Teddy . Let me guess another one in the red uh ?
IAG not treating you well? there is always
a tomorrow don't give up Teddy.. you watch!
"SP25 Jun 2020 22:24
On a positive note, we are going h to have a blue day tomorrow the Phoenix is going to rise from the ashes and fly high into the sky, you watch."
Aren't you tired of posting the same prayer every single day of your wannabe bully existence. Only a genius like you could chuck money on IAG right now.Say what? you want to discuss oil?.
Know your limits pantry boy.
On a real positive note they now also let people like you visit the Saudis Kingdom it's part of a
new program to diversify from an oil predominant economy ,perhaps when you recover from your losses you can visit the Aramco facilities and learn what oil looks like. Word of advice they are tollerant and respectful but keep your mouth shut because fools like yourself easily end up in real serious trouble.
''you can visit the Aramco facilities and learn what oil looks like. '' hmm a ''crude'' dig there feller. ''Up the Conjunction'' not a bad film if I can remember. Good Friday morning my good people, 31 celsius yesterday and raining hard today,whats not to like.Bonnie Scotland at its best.
Oil oilers.. adapting. Petrolio
@ SP. I have just got out of bed and I have noticed my IAG shares are up! It is going to be a blue day. I couldn’t resist buying a tranch of BP shares yesterday, not at them rates and that is without Bernard cancelling the divi. I must be really winding you up if you are looking at my past posts, frankly I couldn’t be arsed to look at yours. Have a nice day.
I thought SP was the aggressive one...… T100, think you may need to go and take in the park - social distancing though.....
Gentlemen, gentlemen.We are all here to make money.A wee bit o' banter and **** taking is fine as long as it does not lead to abuse.It is Friday guys, no more grinding of the teeth until Monday.Covid is on its last legs and the pubs will soon be open.Relax and enjoy.