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Agree PL, and far more educational than reading some of the posts here this am. which have unfortunately displayed all that’s common in SM ie. greed, bitterness and total ignorance !
Bump. Worth a try… have a read and think longer term. Today is a first step of many, we’ve a good product and a global audience. The days of seemingly instant Covid gratification are gone, but that doesn’t mean there’s still not a huge opportunity out there. My zero expectations for today have been exceeded, we’ve just signed our first distribution deal. I’ll wait for many more. Hope you all have a lovely day
It’s not coincidental that the extension runs to the day before the new legislation is due to appear. They’re not procuring any more as they’re expecting to shift it across to the private sector. It’s been a phenomenally awful set of short sighted decisions. The cost of lockdowns has been chosen over the costs of decent quality tests.
Great thread, very interesting doc. We all know testing will be around for many years to come. Avacta know it the manufacturers know it. Governments around the world know it. Yes it needs to translate into contract orders now, and that's exactly what will happen...
Will be interesting to see what investors think tomorrow but hopefully positive sentiment and SP heading northwards!! Good post PL!!!!
Yeh, and all you Mugs stop replying to Ndn, you know calling him a baby beta every time he posts. It clogs up the board.
Exactly gje, too many pieces of the puzzle fit perfectly once you’ve read that document. Given the innova extension, we can rule out being the non existent ‘sovereign test’. However, the ongoing demand described in the document for the multiple use cases suggests the substantial ongoing demand *for years* that we’ve all been expecting and waiting for. Unfortunately, it’s slow, so we’ll have to wait longer.
PS FFS all, please ignore the sea lion that trying to bury this. Mugs.
This would tie in with AS's comment that the dialogue with the UK Gov was ongoing but slow (or words to that effect).
Just one more thing….
There’s some good discussion on twatter from the folks that got bored of the tripe on here and left. They’ve picked up on the validation studies in the U.K. that have been mentioned but never released. We might be further along this process than others. We know from the last presentation that the test is definitely being evaluated due to the hot off the press SA variant update. As it’s all govt related, this unfortunately might result in tomorrow being another classic waffle fest, albeit for exceptionally good reasons. This news vacuum could end up being a great buying opportunity.
Along side the U.K. where all our capacity would sell at very good margin in the private sector, you have the eu. We’d therefore need additional capacity which is hard to obtain in an competitive environment, hence the lack of a deal. You can’t sell what you can’t make. Maybe ousted innova will give us a cheap deal?
Good work PL.
Best Avacta poster on here IMO.
Says it as it is.
You’re welcome all. It’s refreshing to read as it aligns with PresAl’s sentiment that there is substantial demand. Given the document mentions they will need to continue with imports to supplement the U.K. manufacturing, it’s clear that the govt are interested in taking all that the U.K. can offer. The downsides are the usual ones, timescales and trust. I agree oxygen, there is and has been no urgency, they’ve been happy to use lockdowns rather than take advantage of testing as a solution, so timescales are lengthy. As for trust, we’ve got to trust that they will properly validate our product and give it the full recognition it deserves. As they’ve said, once the market opens up, in a free market quality alongside price will be very important. If I was making procurement decisions I’d want to buy the very best and nothing can better finding 100% of the infectious. It would also protect margins.
Who knows what conversations have taken place, perhaps the govt have said that they’re happy with Innova until the free market arrives which has spurred PresAl in to looking to Europe in the meanwhile. All the above certainly fits with everything he’s said about the U.K. market and being able to sell everything we make. It’s just taking a long time. *insert Guinness tagline*
I’m here for this ****. Thanks PL.
Interesting note at the end:
“The Secretary of State having assessed the above criteria and his overarching objective to safeguard the public health. Notes the minor risk to the supply of COVID-19 tests [from the proposed QC checks] but believes this is negligible in regard to tests of sufficient quality to be an effective tool in identifying infections early. The removal of poor quality tests is a more substantial benefit to the protecting public health.”
Government buildings are still going to need tests and hospitals will need to test people so they will want the best test.
My conclusion to this is that the HMG plan is to continue with Innova for 2 mths more (as per the MHRA extension) and issue them free to the public, thereafter (sept onwards) the provision will be from the private sector (for those passing their new validation) competitively as to quality and price in a free market way. That means the best gets most of the market, however it also means no sovereign test (and no long term HMG contract)!
Thanks Scardey. Got to be encouraging even though it’s taking forever. It certainly appears HMG are trying to correct their mistakes at least.
These proposals are to be welcomed albeit you would have no idea that we are in the midst of a Pandemic, where is the urgency ! That said the timelines play into AVCT’s hands and would weed out much of the so called opposition, assuming Govn’t action is actually taken, which is not a foregone conclusion !
So, to answer my own question, these are the people being consulted. But do they have any idea about the problems associated with Porton Down?
Association of British HealthTech Industries
British In Vitro Diagnostics Association
British Medical Association
Make UK
Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency
National Pharmacy Association
Royal Pharmacy Association
United Kingdom Accreditation Service
@AndyC
The recent "Laboratory Test Validation Services" tender (closed 20/05/21), suggests that Porton Down is being sidelined as these new validation services are being farmed out to private enterprise.
https://health-family-contract-search.secure.force.com/ProSpend__CS_ContractPage?SearchType=projects&uid=a074J000007Fu0iQAC&searchStr=&sortStr=Recently+Published&page=1&filters=
For example:
Should COVID-19 detection tests be validated beyond the verification and assurance provided for CE marking?
Yes
No
If no, please provide reasoning.
Who is deciding on these matters?
What are all the questions throughout the document? Who gets to vote?
Thanks PL :)
That’s an excellent read PL. I particularly liked this paragraph:
“Consumers need to know that COVID-19 tests they buy are of satisfactory quality. This requires tests with sensitivity that is high enough to apply in ‘real world’ settings that provide accurate results and avoid spreading the virus.”
Pretty sure Alastair has used “real world” previously.
Do you think Porton Down’s validation process is being sidelined or at the very least restructured? Reading this document possibly suggests a complete overhaul in the (flawed) process. Looks promising.
Posted before but updated recently. It’s painfully slow dealing with the govt, but they’re heading in the right direction. Worth a read in full. The timescales suggest that even if they drag their heels for a few more months, the available market will be worth it. Ignore the absolute BS from Covid deniers such as sea lions that suggest there will be no demand beyond vaccine rollout out. It’s in black and white. Some nice snippets:
‘We therefore expect that this will require considerable expansion of domestic production’
‘This demand (though less than at the peak of the pandemic) will remain for years to come as preventative measures through testing and early identification becomes the norm in managing the virus’
‘The government is keen to develop a resilient UK based supply chain to safeguard test supply particularly as we strive for improved quality’
‘The UK government is keen to leverage the UK’s world-renowned capabilities in medical technologies to become a world leader in the development and manufacture of COVID-19 tests’
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/private-coronavirus-covid-19-testing-validation/private-covid-19-testing-validation
Don’t forget the rest of the world will have similar needs - ‘for years to come’.