The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Risk
Price is determined by regulation and is low. Windfall tax?
I think these are low but given the bun fight between nhs and treasury ....
Plus Donald would love to show how he can strong arm a company for the common good, especially if it follows America first.
I don't see the point in all the negative posting, surely if you are invested it is for the positive reasons otherwise sell up and invest elsewhere
All investments carry risks if it's an airline a plane might crash or God forbid a pandemic, let's not forget it was Lockerbie that caused Pan Am to fold, but with Avacta I believe the positives outweigh the risks
All the bickering is like guys in a pub shouting about who's football team is the best,you'll never change their opinion
Oh and obviously West Ham are the greatest
The numbers were straight out of the 2019 report which are the latest I am aware of. Not saying they are not affected cause they are pre-covid but they are fairly small
Given we habe a brace of vets and I cannot spell vetniry what is your view of them as a company and the opportunity - they state they have the best offer but I don't know whether this is necessary or true. Perhaps they will sell off - economy of scale seems to matter in vet land?
Agree RD the Animal Health Lab stuff is not the story here anyway it was merely to address a specific risk and just seemed overblown.
Of course when lockdown happened all business’s suffered but likes of Avct are far more resilient Han the vast bulk.
Many Vets are getting back to the “ new normal” and a large part of Avct tests are diagnostic especially allergy and many of these pets will be insured/ health plan clients.
My point is the Vet business is resilient and there have been a big number of new puppies registered and many blood samples will be to do with procedures that need to go ahead although yes some routine dentals will not take place.
Idexx who are the main players in that space are doing fine.
Also Avct have a lot of Covid 19 exposure plus most of their work will be back on track.
So yes a 2nd wave could impact but much less likely to effect AVct as it will other industry’s.
Nice try, that was last year :-p
Avacta Animal Health
increased to £2.18 million (2018: £1.57 million) as the
division focused on its core pet/equine allergy tests
together with expanding its overseas products/services
All very subjective, depends of you are in the Bull or Bear camp
Great post flyingmachine, filtered ;)
FM - wow
Insert big yellow thumb
I mean....
Ha, went to finish serving dinner before pressing send. FM pretty much covered it.
Other risks could be being late to market due to unforeseen circumstances, waiting until September to release something as reliable as PCR tests is unacceptable, I'm sure other test providers will be looking to tie in contracts for as long as possible given this could all be over in 12-18m, and countries will be looking to stock up on antigen tests well before the winter.
Brilliant post FM
At a non-technical 'helicopter level', for the Avacta POC LFT test, the risks and potential impacts in my mind (so imho) are :
1. Avacta, cannot deliver a working product - very low risk on the basis the AS has stated they have a working prototype. On that basis, an LFT should be delivered by the company. High negative impact if the risk materializes, but unlikely in my view.
2. It will not have the level of performance of Sona or other competitor tests - medium/high risk, because nobody knows what the level of performance the Avacta test will reach yet. Low impact because the Avacta test can still be very successful as long as it meets MHRA requirements. AS does seem confident of beating the minimum requirements.
3. It will take longer to pass all validation tests, since it is designed to be taken by a layperson - medium risk on the expectation that anything meant for use by a layperson will have more 'hoops' to jump through. Mitigated to some extent by working with the authorities. Impact is low, as mass screening does need this type of test and if it is delivered in the next market 2-3 months (likely). Any longer than that then impact may rise a little.
4. They cannot manufacture enough to meet demand - medium risk in the short term, but likely reducing over the intermediate term as manufacturing can be scaled up with more partners. Impact low, if Avacta sells all that can be made it will still be good for the SP and will improve over time.
5. More LFT competition arrives - medium risk, as I know of at least 2 other POC LFT antigen tests under development within the boundaries of the UK. Impact, low-medium, as long as Avacta's test meets MHRA requirements (very likely) then there is room in the market for all successful tests.
6. The Covid pandemic subsides - low risk through the next 6-9 months at least, you only have to see the resurgence in some countries and others that haven't even got through the 1st wave yet. Then winter may make matters even worse. Impact would be high but I think this is an unlikely scenario for the next 12 months.
7. A working vaccine is developed - associated with risk no. 6 above. Low risk within the next 6-9 months, probably longer because it does take time to make a safe working vaccine, even when all normal processes are expedited. You cannot short-cut 'safety'. Impact would be high but I think this is an unlikely scenario for the next 12 months.
If you believe risk 1, is low risk (which I do) then an investment in Avacta in the short to intermediate term at least should prove to be a good one.
Nice one Matt! Thanks for the compliment, comedy gold, I’ll take that. Or were you referring to the list of risks? Any thoughts?
Incidentally, as you’ve just popped out of the woodwork, got any examples, apart from this thread, where I’ve dewamped? I see your posting history is full of valuable research, thanks for contributing.
I am a vet and actually we saw quite a few severe skin cases in last few weeks and owners where keen for allergy testing. Your right in that boosters and routine neutering was stopped. Everything had to be risk assessed. Also the other great Servive from avacta is free storage of bloods for allergy tests I have at least 10 cases where blood is on storage to be run of the patients don’t get better or flare up quick phone and avacta run. Avacta also done great work with lymphoma screening and monitoring and also acute phase proteins .
Vets round here were closed for anything routine for pets - even the farrier was a bit wary. That said you could lose all there animal revenue and combared to what they are aiming at you wouldn't notice.
Indeed, thank you for your acknowledgment. Regarding animal health, the risk is of a second wave and further lockdown measures. During the lockdown, in the same way as with humans, the focus was on emergencies. This resulted in allergy or therapy testing being put on hold given the limitations on travel.
Not speaking for him but it is the risk of that happening, it doesn't mean it has happened, just that it is a thing that could happen. Like with fire or flood, it's a risk it could happen, there's no indication that there has been a flood and or a fire.
OK PLT 75.
You have quoted a few risks and most of them are applicable to every share you can invest in so are accepted by all of us.
You mention a specific one of and also further slow down revenues from the animal health business.
Now can you please quantify that or provide some evidence as I can assure you that revenues have not slowed down and as that is the industry where I work I would welcome your expert input
RK, it’s not possible to filter threads, DYOR. Obviously you’re not filtered at the minute, I was looking in the hopes you’ve some feedback on my list...
Not a Ferrari fan boy, I just enjoy watching. I’d like to see Hamilton smash every record for him individually, but it’s not great for the sport. Looks like Mercedes are absolutely streets ahead so this stunted season looks like it’ll be a cake walk. Not looking great for Vettel, he’s well and truly on the slide, I’d love to see verstappen in a car that could challenge Lewis, it’d make for some great races. Great result for Lando today.
The chemotherapy is more run of the mill. The SP before Covid recognised risk : reward. Its a great concept and the animal work is emcpuraging. In clinic early next year for phase 1.
I've read the animal work but one question I would have if I was a clinician is the pro-dox converts to dox in tumour cells. Presumably that can then elevate systemic levels. But by how much - animal survival at 60 days suggests they have a solution to the toxicity of chemo.
CS, are you suggesting they’re not genuine risks?
I’ve ignored all risk related to the current developments, whilst acknowledging that there’s a chance we don’t get the results we want, I’ve already stated that I understand that risk, I believe in Klaus’ capability and the rewards hugely outweigh it. As you’ve said, plenty good news is incoming, but I’m just trying to give the people what they want. Still waiting for feedback from the accusers... and an apology obviously.
So I am not filtered. :-)) FOMO.
So what did you think to first qualifying of the year. A subject we possibly have in common and we can share views without coming to blows! Hope you aren’t a Ferrari fan boy PL.
verstappen is the strong one if he can grind LH down.
Thanks for the feedback so far, any other grown ups in here?
I’ve just seen another separate thread by RK with a hilarious title, brilliant stuff. He’s willing to discuss any of this (not that I’d read it). More personality based nonsense rather than discussing the perfectly valid risks of the company he’s apparently heavily invested in.