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I suspect the easy and real money will be in OEMs and licensing deals. We get a slice (to the bottom line) of each test sold. If we only get to 5m domestically (I can’t see it being this low though) I suspect we will make 10s of £ms from OEMs snd Licensing deals.
Craiga. Totalling agree it was downplayed.
If they UK gov want to drag their feet or buy $hit tests because they are cheaper then let them crack on and sell the best test to Europe, Asia, USA for double what the UK gov would want to pay. (which I imagine is a pittance) Its a business at the end of the day and I think you can tell AS is getting a little sick of dealing with them. (adding slow to that slide made me chuckle)
5m per month initially to UK gov at £1 profit
or
5m per month initially to the ROTW at £2 profit
Ill take option b thanks.
Full disclose profit assumption was pulled out of my a$$, also don't believe it will be 5m capacity per month initially, personally think that was Avacta downplaying capacity and gut tells me its closer to 10m)
More interested in hearing who are the overseas Governments and how many 100’ of millions are they buying.
The monthly demand with German heading into another regional lock up, is going to be substantial.
The original volume est. of several 100’ millions a month, could be that target.
Avacta hasn't gone through all the pain of the last year for 5m a month. Accept that 'the market' will wait for more details, but there's no doubt the numbers will be much higher.
The market isn’t excited by the scheduled 5m capacity.
I feel that AS was flushing out HMG as we now have the data, and soon to announce CE for it to be questioned ‘why NOT us?! I believe we’ll quickly use more of the UK capacity.
HMG appear to be the bottle neck, having monopolised UK capacity. Which is a shame. Confirms the focus on Europe.
Slower ramp up than expected, but I expect a constant flow of orders and scale up through the next 6 weeks.
If UK GOV are interested they are now under real pressure to act (award contract to AVCT) or they will lose the opportunity. AVCT will be able to sell all the capacity they have with GAD/BBI/Abington and others if they UK don't want it.
I think that today many perceived more weeks to wait for contracts so sell now and not enough buyers to gobble up the excess stock. Also some think a seller (eg Miton) might be having to sell to reduce % portfolio... the next bump up will be when handcox or Boris utter the word ‘Avacta’ which given the excellent CV - it could be at any point when they feel the need to Uber-ramp something British.
You don't need any of that Green, its not an Iron Man course.....and its not that every one is conspiring against one type of share holder, simply no such beast exists.
Believe me my friend Crocqman......my balls are very heavy and made of steel.
I was only making a comment, not complaining at all.
Cheers
I'm not sure its bizarre Bline, but I do feel as though we might have a floor.
Given the concept that the SP is always correct (as it is the sum of all knowledge of the stock out there) then this is where we are: we have:
In depth final results update
CV validation
Nailed on CE by Early May
Initial 5m test per month (starting in May or early June?)
Current price 248p
Therefore I think any news after CE (as its already in the SP) and any order for greater than 5m per month will push the SP up.
I reckon a "new" news flow could happen any time almost from now but more likely in the next 2-3 weeks
Thanks Rebecca.
I do agree with all your comments, and in my second year with Avacta now.
All the pieces of the jigsaw are falling into place and its about time the Media and Politicians started opening their eyes.
We on this BB can see the big picture, and its just a little frustrating and disappointing our so called elite cannot.
All that said, due to their incompetence, most on this board will be wealthy peeps in 12-18 months because we could see what they could not.
Cheers to everyone.
Bline,
It does not mean you are a clueless investor.
It is perhaps just that you don't understand the way that markets work (irrationally, at times) as well as you may understand the business you are invested in. They do not always operate in the same plain, and for too many reasons to list.
If you have dyor, then as long as there is nothing about the fundamentals of the company to make you change your mind, then short term SP movements should not really be of concern (frustrating at times, of course). Unless you are looking to trade that is, then volatility in the SP is your friend.
gla
Bline......... you've missed one important factor, which is. that to beat the MM's, the day traders and shorters (not of whom have the slightest interest in whether or not a company is worth investing in), you need to have PATIENCE and STEEL BALLS !!! GLA LTH
It's not the first time this has happened after good news etc.
It will bounce back to blue over the next few days and hold till contacts signed for actual income .
The potential is better than it’s ever been, hold tight for the imminent benefits x
Only just logged after work.
Read the excellent RNS and looked at the SP.
This just reiterates the fact I am a clueless investor. I look for companies with massive potential and growth as well as trying to help mankind.....Avacta tick nearly every box....release a great RNS...and down we go........bizarre..