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Shorts are rampant, inflations high and therefore interest rates are too, two almost three wars, vital import/export route compromised.
Other reasons are that the company bought way too much stock in the pandemic, people bought more clothes than they needed during lock down, company board got lazy when the sales were through the roof and thought it would continue.Although Shein are not directly comparable they have taken a market share away.
Sales are down due to the above reasons.
many of these factors are improving, not to mention a leaner business model is coming to fruition.
Can you explain to me why the SP is down c.15% from the end of last year?
What I understood from the annual report Jose has 326295 shares in outstanding shareoptions, and about 24 K bought. His salary is not that great (after tax) for running a 3 B business. So if he wants to become financial independent he needs to deliver. If he fails he not only loses the bonus but equally his reputation for being part of the team that created the mess and not being able to fix it as the ceo. So for me there is no doubt he is eager. That does not mean he is the most talented.
Where Roberto ha ha?
You got the right ticker mate?
We been through this rigmarole last week and we destroyed you with charts.
It's a good chat board to be fair.. happy for bear and bull just none of the toxic non sense like some other boards. Luckily people seem quite relaxed here. :)
And the market replied - share price close to all time low!
I think Simon makes some good bear points actually, although I agree with you that the CFO point was probably a bit of a reach.
I like the fact that this chat board allows both bull and bear points of view, unlike some of the other ones, which often seem to denigrate into playground silliness.
Anyway, I am still watching from the sidelines myself. Disappointed with the lack of buying from Jose at the very least, but from a technical chart perspective, it is a fair old battle right now!
If it can stay above the 50 DMA this time, which I have been waiting for, I am going to jump in for another trade, because I can see another go at the 200 in short order, if it does.
Not sure it will break and hold above the 200 without some material news, but will cross that bridge if we come to it. GLA.
Hi Simon, I'm not going to go into your full message as I think as a typical bear you have a knack for always exagerating the negatives and massively downplaying the positives but on the CFO subject you make it sound worse than it is with regards to Sean Glithero. What I mean by that is that he was always appointed as 'Interim' CFO since the beggining and in fact was only meant to be at Asos for 6 months. The fact that he stayed double that, for almost a year, highlights to me that he needed to stay untill the company had started to show proof of the turnaround (HY results in this case) . Lets not forget he was bought in after both Matt Dunn and Nick Beighton abandoned ship at its peak just before everything was about to go downhill.
So I think him leaving and a new permanent one being appointed is actually very positive,regardless of the new ones backround. As others have said there are two ways to view that.
My take is that some shorters on this bb are screwing because they missed on shorting from the 50/40/30/20/10/5sssss.
You can hear their desperation and frustration and wishing for the sp to make them a few pennies atleast.
If I was them…. I wouldn’t take the risk and better to move on as this company has updated the market with solid progress.
Hahaha..
I said "someone with a sense of reality", based on your previous comment about £15 - that rules you out
How did you know my name was Simon :)
How's your short going Roberto Carlos ?
Finally someone with some sense of reality on here. Well said Simon
Well... I guess this is the start of the slow climb back to £15 by Xmas 🎅✊
Management, Heads of Buying , Buyers and Marketing, all very aware and agree on the need for TS/TM to be Omnichannel, also they have a wealth of experience on this having come from Inditex, issue is money and timing. I think ship needs to continue to be sailed into calmer waters before embarking on another journey, in meantime Pirates on the horizon, LoL.
Simon, The Red Sea woes for me can only be a genuine reason and not fluff.Its pretty obvious this will impact imports/exports in a big way for any company using the route for goods.
I agree with the lack of buying from the people running this outfit, afterall, it is the only way they can show some confidence in the turnaround.
On the takeover point, I actually think it's increasingly likely given the reported interest of TS, at what price is another story.
You are right about Topshop, considering this brand is so sort after, the brand gets lost on the website.
Why not have a separate website for such a big brand, if we are going to have physical shops bring back Topshops?
What do I know, these few points just seem like obvious easy wins, low hanging fruit for the taking.
I think we will sit around 400s.
Breaching 450 will take news.
Simon the shorter is back Zzzzzzz
Have dug out bits between the waffle of the report. I remain underwhelmed. Hoped for better but we are just about keeping on track. Still promises of jam tomorrow. Waffle 'as the result of old stock and red seas delays there is a suboptimal level of newness providing a less compelling customer proposition' ! I will put a few thoughts out there.
The most risky area is Debt. Pretax losses widen to £120m from £87m last year. I've previously highlighted the incompetent borrowing facility last year at high rates. Inventory still too high.
West6809 sensibly reminded us of the £500m bond. Will need to be thought about in 18 months. We may just see some profits coming through by then, but interest cost on bond could be four times higher, maybe more. And where did that £500m go? Some was part of the finance restructure after the the TS aquisition. The rest was for global expansion. That went well didn't it? Sales in USA down 25%. Profit margins expectedly down due to clearing old stock, but I predict some further write offs. Impairment of £14m due to mothballing of Lichfiled site. What a waste. Shein market share rises from 1.7% to 2.2%..Asos share down from 3.1% to 2.4%. Shein chipping away. When they list in London they intend to mean business, and will have deep pockets, hope an offer for Asos! NY sensibly rejected them . Yes, a lot of their stuff is rubbish but they will continue to eat into market share. Asos have merely copied Shein's model....Test and React. It works quite well but hardly new. Time and again they blame something for low margins....selling old stock, having to slash prices to compete, Xmas discounts, unforeseen factors eg Red Sea woes, the weather etc Topshop is a wasted asset in my view. It needs a physical presence and MA knows this. As for Mr Calamonte, he says the new business model is 'showing promise'. We need more than that. This is the sort of guy who will probably only buy shares if a crisis occurs and he buys to prop them up. If he hasn't shown confidence in the share at this low price, while things are 'showing promise', why should I? As for the CFO role, Glithero didn't last long - 11 months. Dave Murray. Oh dear! Bankruptcy seems to follow him around like a magnet. 2019/22 at Farfetch, went bust. 2022/23 was at Matches, went bust and MA seems to have 'let him go'. I'm just hoping it's not going to be 3 times unlucky. There's a lack of substance in this report. MA sees this as an inefficiently run company but which could be turned around and would be a good fit for him. Other than takeover speculation, this share will stick around the £3.30 to £3.80 mark. A 100% rise is very unlikely short term. £15 by Xmas is cloud cuckoo land. Shorts need to reduce by at least half to get things moving. All in all, nothing to see here.
It is the biggest worry which is why this turnaround is huge and needs to go to plan, ontop of macros improving. If none of it goes to plan then.. well you can guess.
Alot will change between now and next year as James says, none of us can guess.. we just have to have faith the BOD fulfil there future guidance. 😅
Agree...2 years from now ASOS will be in a much better place, even a small raise off 20 quid a share would be understandable then.
Note bondholders can only convert at 79 quid a share so unless SP is higher can't see that happening.
Bond was issued to fund Top Shop in the main so arguably was a good use of funds assuming Top Shop value in 2 years time ie much higher than what they paid for it I imagine given the progress it is making.
No probs West.
It is worrying however; if we fast forward to this time next year, we should be turning a profit by then and hopefully interest rates will have come down should we wish to renew the terms of the bond when it expires.
We do have some breathing room between now and then.
They did say in the update they were currently exploring different avenues regarding the convertible bond.
Obviously anything other than dillution would be welcomed from a share holders perspective.
James I’ve just listened to the podcast. Thanks for sharing. The only thing worrying me is the convertible bond which is due in 2026. £500 million pounds. I’ve touched on it before but this out of everything I heard, whilst not new, is my biggest concern by far.
I'm with KYK and BlackFox on this point.
If you don't need to sell thee asset that everyone else wants then why would you?
Cash distribution to shareholders is not even on the horizon as far as I'm concerned.
Not sure if we listen to podcasts on here?
ASOS is featured on Investors Chronicle pod this week.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4JTZY9WuYyWChRvAMz4FFZ?si=Dx6S-zL-QY2icqQFD5TTMQ
Starts at around 22.40
Nothing we don't already know.
Compared to the last time ASOS featured and this time, it is slightly more positive.
Hoping they can hold onto it, personally.
Also, I would be amazed if the BOD hasn’t already received a bunch of ‘highly preliminary / indicative’ proposals/offers, in the last 12 months. But despite the sense these articles give, the turnaround seems to be progressing steadily, so why sell? (if they don’t need the cash to stay alive).
GLA