We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Not wasting my time on you pal.
If you're not invested...laters.
James you never answered my question either. Declining revenues and a huge debt pile isn’t good for the stock price. So how are they going to make a dent while increasing profits? There’s so many head winds here. You guys are crazy
Because his tone of voice is out of order. Anyway, I am out here. Have seen more than enough, the good stuff here is not worth it compared to the bad stuff. Nothing against bears, always welcome but the way how and what in terms of business knowhow is too low. Very daily traders focused. Ciao.
Why so angry?
You are acting like a child making assumptions not being back by anything. How much do I have in Asos? When did I enter? How much % of my net wealth is that. You do not know. You do not know. I know one thing, timing the market is for losers. I am happy with my average and it only needs a bit of tweaking for me to make some ROI. BUt yes, risky.
Just a reminder :)
In FY25 we expect to deliver revenue growth and return EBITDA margin to around pre-Covid levels (c.6%). In the medium-term we have confidence in our ability to return to double-digit growth; steadily improve gross margin back towards c.50%; maintain EBITDA sustainably ahead of capex, interest, tax, and leases; reduce capex to 3-4% of sales; and deliver inventory of c.100 days.
· FY24 is about taking the necessary action to get us to that path. Our priorities of accelerating towards our new commercial model and strengthening our relationship with consumers require investment in the near term into marketing and the discounting of aged stock to exit the year with a clean stock position, including using offsite clearance channels where necessary.
· As such, our expectations for FY24 are unchanged:
- Sales decline of 5 to 15%, with P4 FY23 trends continuing through the first half of FY24 and a return to growth in the final quarter of FY24.
- Adjusted EBITDA positive.
- Stock back to pre-Covid levels (c.£600m as previously communicated).
- Capex of c.£130m6.
- Positive cash generation, reducing our net debt position.
When you read EBITDA replace it with BS....this was created by consultants and investment bankers in the 80 to justify higher valuations in the US. I look at FCF and the possible % that this reverts to the former/bit adjusted mean. Look it up for yourself. This whole thesis is about are they going to be able to stabilise and later on grow sales with higher operating % margins combined with better investment efficiencies in the company. Try building a business with 22 M customers with all the tanglibles and intangibles for this book value. Leadership knows they need to deliver very very soon...and regarding timing the market to get in. Good luck, that is a more risky strategy then my turnaround gamble here.
Sorry I meant £430m...
Says the guy balls deep in an awful stock. How’s that 10 year chart looking mate? You keeping going down!
Ok fair enough.... so you're left with £70m. Correct?
If recall correctly interest cost is c.£50m a year, you are left with £20m free cash flow (in one year from now), and that free cash flow (which is not even certain) currently costs £4.3 BILLION to buy (or £3.60 a share).
Thoughts?
Clueless absolutely clueless.
Answers-CAPEX for FY24 expected to be c£130million not 200million.
Thereafter it is to be reduced and reflect 3-4% of sales.
I also have a question for you:
A business aspiring to do 6% EBITDA margin in 2025 (aspiring being the key word) so c.£180m but let's say £200m.
The business also spends about £200m on Capex per year.
What are you left with (before interest and taxes)?
Your questions reveals your are a novice investor. Good luck.
I’ll put it in more simple terms
Would you choose to swim with the current or against it?
Morning sj have a good day fella :)
OMG, getting so tired of these replies I made 9 bucks last week. I made 5 cents last hours up because of this or that. Will not tell you what I made last Q1 on my gold positions. Did i plan that for Q1, no way just a long term strategy since 2015. Some (like me) are in ASOS for the turnaround and possible rerate, if you do not believe in that thesis fine but using pro shorters as evidence that LTH are dead wrong is nonsense. Shorting Asos is a mostly algo driven thing and shorting is extremely difficult business. Your point regarding the FCF improvement of selling old stock is a valid and good one, but nothing new here under the sun. This is a high risk high reward bet at 3,6 pounds. You accept that and digest the noise or move on and take a loss. Have you ever turned around a business or are you a youngster with limited milage trying to be a smart ass here, I have and it always takes more time and pain as business is a complex adaptive system with a lot of uncertainties. Asos is not different so allocate your % that you can afford to lose.
Lol, good morning both :)
Always funny watching the experts on this board trying to justify the stock price and why it’s going to rocket in the next 6 months.
Should have listened to me fellas, JD posted a great opportunity to buy last week down at 116. Now at 125 with a news update this morning. Such a safe bet and easy to swing trade it.
2 questions I have here-
1. Why do you think you know more than profession investors who are shorting this heavily?
2. Why will cash flow improve when a huge chunk of the last update was because of huge sell off of the old over bought stock. It was a one off, which did help the numbers but won’t be repeated again. I don’t know how the board are planning to re pay off the huge amount of debt going forward?
Only thing you can hope for is interest rates reduced soon which may help slightly. But honestly you think 0.25pc reduction is going to make everyone spend money like crazy? Will free up small amounts of cash for people but nothing major. Short term it may see a bounce when they do drop until the results are posted.
Said it before and I’ll say it again, JD easiest 40-50!percent you’ll ever make. Told you all that you should have sold this at 380ish.
Good luck all, you should actually do some research instead of telling everyone else too
If we all focus our minds and channel our thoughts toward positivity and optimism, it might help push the share price go UP.
Alllornothing ....Thank you for clarifying that about Sean Glitheroe. I had forgotten he was only appointed on an 'interim' basis; so I was unfair in my comment. Mind you, look what happened to the previous company he was CFO at... Lol.
I only replied because I enjoyed the comedy value but otherwise nahh lol
We're 30p above all time low and you guys are celebrating
Very true Sj, I will refrain from wasting my time in future :)
It's not really worth arguing with Jamess. They only want to try to make the board toxic. They know the answers already, and if not they shouldn't be investing.
Ha ha so you don't think inflation being at 11 % will have a prolonged fall-out?
Are you actually for real?
No more reasoning with someone who can't grasp the basics.