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As I see it, the SPA sum of £14,052,000 for fully purchasing their 49% stake relies on ANGS being able to fulfil the entire cash raise with Aleph. Part of this consists of the 2nd tranche of shares that definitely require shareholder approval.
I personally don't believe ANGS had to take this 100% purchase at this time as it raises too many concerns/disruptions etc. It represents an unacceptable risk of taking on 100% of the hedge at a time when flow rates and sidetrack results are thus far unknown.
So, I have every intention of declining approval. ANGS is better served short-term in maintaining its current position. Instead, GL and the BOD have taken an unnecessary risk and devestated the SP with unnecessary dilution.
I'm not happy with their decisions nor a MINIMUM 2 week slip... so much for any hope of GL redeeming himself.
P.S. I find it HIGHLY irregular that GPS, a major shareholder, should somehow know to sell up just prior to a major dilution event. Sounds utterly back-handed to me and I intend to vote against the additional 2nd tranche.
You can all make your own decisions, but GL deserves a smack in the face!!!
HITS, your last post lost me completely.
How do you get 915 million. There are 546 million 91 million (637 total) issued to Aleph. Where are the other 278 million coming from?
In HITS opinion, there is going to be another placing, 'there is't going to be one'....
The rest of the debt is to be paid out of cash flow!!!!!!
Yanis, I proke it down for you.
Prior to yesterday, there were 1,368 million shares in issue (see 10th May RNS for confirmation).
Yesterday's RNS announces 2,283 million shares in issue. That's a difference of 915 million shares which are being newly issued.
637 million to SEL as part of the acquisition (nominally valued at 1.2p within that deal).
5 million to the lenders as part of the loan anniversary conditions
273 million placing with Aleph to raise £3 million at a palcing price of 1.09p.
There's your 915 million new shares all accounted for.
On top of all that, ANGS needs (apparently) to raise ANOTHER £3 million, so wants approval to place a SECOND LOT lot of 273 million new shares with Aleph, AGAIN at 1.09p odd.
Yanis, while full production of gas and perhaps more oil will create the first revenues of any consequence for ANGS, and that is very positive, the massive change in share structure and especially the huge number of new shares will be enough for some to sell out and move on; of the 1,300,000,000 existing shareholders from last week we know the largest holder announced they were out on Friday,; there is no reason to think some hundreds of millions of others will not reach the same conclusion.
The good news is we have help so far at the placing pricing of 1.09, clearly new buyers are stepping in at this level. If we trade much below today's lows we will see a lots of stop losses, and the market may go looking for them at some point this week.
ANGS has a good chance to become a profit making company soon. However complex share restructuring has made near term share price appreciation more challenging. My concern is as WG raised, we now have two share holders that are not far off 50%, and a usually bad AIM outcome is if they team up to take us private, unless there is lots of cash on the table this is unlikely to be good for current share holders. Gas storage could ultimately be a big payoff for SF's owners, but there are complex technical issues that make that component a very different play than flowing from an old gas field and may or may not be as good a risk for investors, but in any event is a different type of exposure.
I am watching with interest but have not bought back in, whole lot to digest and wait for the dust to settle at present.
IQ level here has increased recently, at least until Adrian sorts a new IP address...
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-george-lucan-managing-director-angus-energy-9c7931f/
HITS, apologies again. I reread the RNS paying a bit more attention.
The way I read it now, we have the following share issues:
Acquisition:
- 91 mil @ 1.09p (unlocked)
- 546 mil @ 1.20p (LOCKED)
Subscription:
- 546 mil @ 1.09p (unlocked)
Lender shares:
- 5 mil (unlocked)
Total share issue:
- 546 mil - LOCKED
- 91 mil + 546 mil + 5 mil = 642 mil unlocked
This is a total share issue of 1,188 million = 1.188. BILLION
and out of these 642 million can be sold anytime.
Hence the explanation of why the SP is where it is.
HITS, thanks for helping me clarify this - appreciated.
And no I am not saying there's going to be another placing per se...
Just that to raise the second £43 million of the £6 million that ANGS says it needs, ANGS requires shareholder approval, which if it gets it, will result in the issuing of another 273 million new shares to Aleph at 1.09p odd, on top of the 273 million just issued to the same party at the same placing price.
It's all in the RNS... the confusion is caused (probably deliberately) by there being two completely separate lots of 546 million shares being mentioned. One lot's going (with 91 million others) to SEL and the other lot's going to Aleph, with the second half of that needing shareholder approval to happen.
HeadInTheSand........Wrong.....Try again.....re read the RNS.....
Yanis, you're welcome.
The only thing you've not got quite right is that half of the unlocked subscription shares you mention can't in fact be issued without shareholder approval.
But yes, both SEL (with 91 million unlocked shares at 1.09p) and Aleph (with currently 273 million unlocked shares at 1.09p, but this may well double shortly) have unlocked shares to do what they like with.
Oktane, makes sense. I hope I am not forced to cut huge losses at this level.
If the selling pressure continues it will mean that the subscriber (Aleph?) is not holding on to his 1.09p priced shares. I don’t see why they would that though because they will be loosing money.
Nicos, perhaps it'd be better to let those who can actually understand an RNS talk?
Note:
at the beginning of GL's interview with Zak Mir (from about 1:13), he says that "they (Saltfleetby Energy Limited) have a similar tax profile to us, they have £27m of tax losses, we have £22m of tax losses, ...".
It is clear, therefore, that Angus has acquired Saltfleetby Energy Limited including its tax losses (which are highly unlikely to be transferable to another company anyway).
Yanis, Have you listened to the podcast because it's very positive imo.
PS: the total tax rate on Saltfleetby gas production is currently 40%, so those £27m of tax losses acquired with Saltfleetby Energy Limited are worth (40% of £27m =) £10.8m (as long as they can be offset against taxable profits).
Very good podcast.
Well worth a listen by all.
gla
This last share has effectively doubled the float to 2.3 billion shares. Effectively doubled the MCAP to £25 mil.
Doubling theMCap again to £50 mil will result to an SP of 2.2p.
£50 Million is the effective P90 value using 65p Gas price.
You can't sell a podcast, only your shares. This will not move until GL announces first gas has been achieved and is now being sold into the market.
For all the talk of a positive deal, the market disagrees strongly and has dropped the price accordingly. I expect a rerate on first gas seeing as though our EPS will rocket with the income from selling gas.
Time will tell
Ocelot the combined tax lossers are 40% of £50m with the Angus £22m share. So most of the profit given away by the Hedge will be offset against future profits.
They are acquiring Saltfleetby Energy Limited for £14.052m.
In doing so they are acquiring £10.8m of tax losses (40% of £27m) which can be offset against taxable profits in the future.
To my eyes, that looks like a very good deal indeed.
Tygra, GL did mention on the podcast that the mood is "wait and see" but the SP will recover before production.
JH, GL was dying to say Angus is worth £100m at 130p gas prices but couldn't, he just said "well north of £50m so investors can do the sums. P.S. any resources upgraded to reserves will enhance the SP.
Ocelot a very good point, if you look at it like that the price was £4m with the tax losses. The new investors will also have sticky hands even having the choice to sell which is encouraging imo.