Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
His performance at ARC (just look over on the chat board) has been atrocious. It's very easy to gain 'experience' when you are firmly in the revolving door Brigade. As a Chairman he won't be very much involved with the day to day running of the company, particularly seeing as though he's sitting in First Class on the AIM Gravy Train with multiple 'part time' extremely well remunerated Directorships/Chairmanships.
The only positive thing from that RNS is that for his free shares to be exercisable, the VWAP in the 30 days prior needs to be over 143% higher than on the day of his appointment. So if you are holding shares today, they will be nigh on 1.5 times higher when our new Chairman is able to cash in his first batch of free shares.
It's nothing but a revolving door at the top of these companies, success/failure, matters not, they will simply be 'recycled' into another company if and when they choose. Doesn't really matter to me who the Chairman is, it's Darren who holds the tiller so MTL is a good place to be while he does. I'll give the new fella time to see if he brings any connections that are helpful to MTL. Let's just hope we predominantly stick to GOLD and don't go off looking at dirt piles in Africa with 'potential'.
All the best
They will have to adjust their valuations very soon as debt will be completely paid off within 2 months max:
'Net debt as at 31 December 2023 was US$19.9 million'.
Marching through record gold prices debt free means even accounting for the reduced ounces from Runruno, MTL will be offsetting a lot of the lost ounces with nigh on $200 per ounce more income from the ounces they do sell.
If we are lucky and gold holds above $2150 for most of the year, between 70-75k ounces recovered and sold would provide considerable free cash flow for further acquisitions.
See where we are when the wider market starts seeing what a debt free gold producer can earn in just one quarter.
All the best
Disgusting from Prem, and particularly their in-house cheerleaders deceitfully posting tripe on here while the plant is NOT producing over 1 YEAR after it was built. It's still rammed full of contaminated waste, they have 'apparently' achieved an unspecified amount of SC6 yesterday (but obviously nowhere near enough to fill bags for Canmax, who should be sorting out their claims for MORE missed deadlines right about now).
The easy to access top soil is inferior, so they now have to pay the mining contractor (dilution shares anyone) to start the expensive blasting and lower level digging to get some ore that 'might' be good enough to process into Canmax's SC6 economically. Oh, and there's the Legal Fees to consider because in true GR form, he can't keep a drunken Dwarf called Happy, happy, and instead prefers to engage in Legal disputes with anyone who enters a contract with PREM:
'however at this time there is a dispute between Stark and Premier pertaining to the Zulu Plant Performance.'
So there's more dilution right there to settle legal claims and no doubt pay off Stark 'when' they win a judgement.
But it's all fine, Snowking (a word pops in my head, rhymes with flat), pipes up stating LIES every now and then, particularly during an orchestrated PUMP to offload shares and clear the imminent placings (MANY more to come). So don't worry about the imminent threat to the solvency of the company via legal disputes and no income to pay workers, dilutions are 'net positive' according to some of the blinkered fools who inhabit this board.
this company is POISON, trade it or lose it.
Magnum, please read the most recent Presidential Decree about the selling of PGMs, gold etc, you will find the payments must be made in ROUBLES, hence the reason POLY sold their entire Russian business. And in the words of Nesis, the POLY CEO during an interview, 'being listed in the UK and registered in Jersey makes it IMPOSSIBLE for us to sell our Russian mines'.
Whatever EUA do or (don't) sell as the case may be, it will be settled in Roubles before being exchanged for UK pounds, US dollars, or whatever currency the country uses where the end recipient shareholder resides.
Why would POLY, an actual world leading major mining company, want to receive Russian Roubles for all their mines when the exchange rate leaves them worse off after they swap currencies? Answer, because they HAD to deal in Roubles, which is what the government of Russia demanded and enacted in law.
That's all I have to say on the matter, and certainly all I have to say to you. Keep dreaming, and again, just for the hard of thinking, the EUA BoD stated they are in active discussions with parties based in HONG KONG and RUSSIA, not in INDIA, I say again, NOT in INDIA.
Sleep
The Q1 results are the most anticipated (by me personally) because of this excellent run in the price of gold. Could very well open up over $2200 per ounce Monday, $2188 atm.
Lots of free cash flow coming and the bank balance will swell rapidly as the debt disappears. I'm 'expecting' another acquisition announcement very soon, that cash will be put to good use I'm sure.
Have a good weekend, Ngannou to shock the world.
For those still deluded enough to believe anything that comes from thisegregious BoD of a non-mining company, here is their latest episode of fiction specific to the never ending asset sale (sp):
'It is important to emphasise that, despite the now extended timeline, active discussions are maintained with counterparties based in Hong Kong and Russia, but as yet no terms have been agreed and, as ever, there can be no guarantee that Eurasia will enter into binding agreements.'
So the fantasy sale is still 'apparently' going on behind the scenes, and the counterparties are based in Russia or Hong Kong. The previous LIES about companies from Japan, Asia, and BRICS is like everything else with EUA, nonsense.
Essar are an Indian conglomerate based in India, not HK or Russia. There will be no asset sale because whatever they are 'permitted' to sell on Russian soil by the Russian Government (see POLY for a prime example), will have to be settled in ROUBLES at a massive discount and taxed to the max before being 'allowed' out of the country.
A FTSE100 major mining company and a worldwide top 5 gold producer had to DELIST from the LSE and close all UK offices. They had to redomicile to a 'friendly' country (Kazakhstan) just to be able to complete a firesale of its multiple producing and profitable generational Russian gold and silver mines. They settled in Roubles way below book value and used said Roubles to pay off their Russian debts so they could carry on as a going concern and cut all ties to Russia. And all this was while domiciled in a 'friendly' country.
EUA is a UK listed and UK Headquartered company with no producing assets and a pile of sand that they are forbidden from processing into PGMs that they are PAYING to lock in a storage yard. But yeah, the loss making postage stamp of a mine known as West Kytlim and the ever decreasing palladium bonanza on MT is getting sold for multiple billions.
Yeah Riiiiiiiiiiight. If you STILL believe that carp, I'm sure your Nurse will be along with your afternoon medication..................Shortly.
Yep, $2166 per ounce means MTL is highly profitable and most importantly, we're actually producing and selling gold during this bull run, not just looking for it witha view to digging it up.
Typical though, I have a few quid clearing in the bank tomorrow and MTL has decided to go on a run again. It's a conspiracy to make ME pay a higher price after a drop. Oh well, I'm sure the RNS saying the debt is history will help soften the blow (providing the market makers actually price it in).
All the best
This valuation is ludicrous with gold above $2k let alone fast approaching $2150 per ounce. Look at GGP (not to start an argument before anyone who holds GGP pipes up with 'my mine is better than your mine etc', it's merely a comparison), they have some exploration acreage in the vicinity of their current main asset, Haveiron. They only own 30% of it and their majority partner (Newmont), have openly stated they want to sell it and the processing plant close to it (Telfer).
Haveiron is still being drilled and proven up, it still needs hundreds of millions of dollars to turn into a workable mine, and the company who have the keys to the door don't want to develop it and have slapped a For Sale sign outside. That leaves GGP with 30% of a mine they have zero control over, and if they want to throw their hat in the ring and purchase the other 70% and the processing plant, they will need hundreds of millions in debt/equity finance to do so.
They are currently valued at circa £340 million with zero income, massive overheads and pro-rata drilling/exploration costs, and a joint venture partner who doesn't want build the mine and prefers to sell it. Haveiron 'could' be a great multi year mine in time, but right now it is years away from production. GGP was recently 'valued' at over £1 billion with nothing but a minority slice in Haveiron.
MTL is barely over £75 million with a producing mine and new exploration areas coming into the fold imminently. It's clear there's a disparity between what constitutes 'value' and how 'value' is priced by the market makers. It'll wake up at some point, I don't have many shares here but I expect at least a five fold return during 2024 (hopefully more).
Happy to hold and add
Morning
$2126 for one once of gold on the spot market. This company is in mature production with a well understood working mine that has approximately 4 years of production left.
What goes up must come down (and then go back up again), that's the price you pay when holding AIM shares that suddenly become visible to market makers and institutional investors. They simply hedge their positions and play it up and down ensuring they profit either way.
This isn't an explorer looking for a strike upon which to begin financing an expensive mine construction. It's a producer throwing off cash while eyeing up additional assets in the same country where they already have first mover advantage.
Drops in the price are to be expected, take advantage if you can and when the results speak for themselves, the market won't be able to ignore MTL much longer.
All the best
Shaml89
It can't be ruled out simply because most of us would rather it didn't happen. I agree with you in most of what you say, if they 'want' to take it private I would imgine they 'could' do it, but it wouldn't be straight forward and all in all, there's scratch all we could do about it other than vote against at an EGM. They would need to be sure beforehand that it would succeed, so regardless of their intentions, we'll certainly be trading as a UK listed company for some time yet.
Just back in to see 4p on the bid, beautiful, just beautiful, long may this climb continue (in both gold and MTL).
All the best
I know little of the old days where the debt scrap caused the price to collapse as I wasn't invested back then. What I do know is that within 2 months (ish) there will be no 'Lender' any longer, as all debt will be history and the cash generated will be used to acquire new assets and replace the loss of production from Runruno (once it expires).
The largest shareholders can very well 'attempt' to take the company private but if they do, I would like to think a number significantly higher than today's shareprice will be required to get the deal accepted.
I also 'hope' that the company stays listed, and that it intends to grow with public investment and not hived off to a handful of individuals. The Philippines Government may also wish for MTL to remain UK listed to show they are open for business and showcase their attractiveness for outward investment.
No matter what, private/listed, the price needed to take this company off the market will be a lot higher than the current £90 million (ish) market capitalisation. It's a win win but like most other private investors, I want to stay invested and ride the value upwards, not take a short term gain via a privatisation.
Can't see Mr Bowden wanting to shaft the shareholders at this point in time. He's set out his vision for growth and reading between the lines, it 'appears' as though he wants shareholders along for the ride.
Time will tell, 3.9p on the bid, over 4p close with a bit of luck.
Today, the solicitors acting for Queeld and Mispare will be handing them over 300 million shares of EUA. Let's see what happens next:
'In accordance with the Schedule to that Order, replacement share certificates will be issued to be held by solicitors acting for Queeld and Mispare, to be held by those solicitors until 5 March 2024, at which point the share certificates will be released to Queeld and Mispare.'
Now they have them, they can do with them as they please unless they are somehow confiscated by the Government of Russia.
Tick Tock
Nobody knows for sure unless they were involved mate, but based on the direction of travel if an entity flogged off 3 million shares on a Friday the Monday opening 'should' be down.
It's all looking good here so if my Spidey Sense is close to accurate, I think we are about to move higher as more institutions climb onboard (next few months).
All the best, good time to grab more as and when we can, word will get out soon enough (on the chat boards).
It would've taken a long time to buy/sell 3 million shares here on the open market. The time stamps are not accurate as to what the orders are, it's just a time it was declared to the market. It happens in countless shares where delayed trades from weeks previous turn up that have been worked behind the scenes. Usually after an impromptu suspension or a corporate action that forces Long/Short trades to be settled/declared.
The Bid may have been listed as 3.5p on Friday but as we have seen today with such a large spread, the Bid/Ask is way off most of the time.
Looking good here, the Herd will 'probably' arrive very soon (once the market makers have grabbed what they can to sell at a profit via a nice wide spread).
Have a goodun
Zero chance that's a sell, if an entity offloaded 3 million shares we would be going down just as we did 3-4 weeks ago when somebody was clearly offloading. The largest trade there's ever been (in recent post debt times) would move the needle one way or the other. Three weeks ago it was 2.5p, today, there's buying at 4.1p.
Regardless, MTL is moving UP and the volume of trades has increased significantly on a daily basis.
All the best
Plus, Gold is now trading at $2105 per ounce, which is brilliant for getting this debt put to bed earlier. With a bit of luck, it will stay above $2100 for a few days/weeks, and with a lot of luck it will keep climbing. Anything over $2k per ounce is good news for MTL.
All the best
M1egas
It's incomparable, as MTL (today) is effectively an entirely new company that has been through a near bankruptcy that required considerable high interest debt to alleviate.
That debt is now on its last legs and 'should' be paid off completely in the next 2 months which adds significant free cash flow to the company's balance sheet. The current Flagship, Runruno, has approximately 4 years of production remaining which secures the financial footing of the company and allows adequate organic cashflow to reinvest in new assets elsewhere.
A new licence area has been acquired (subject to approval) which can take advantage of the proximity to all weather roads and the maritime port to the west for exports. The CEO is clearly on the mooch for additional assets in Philippines, and the expensive mining infrastructure we have at Runruno can be repurposed to the new acreage up north once Runruno 'runs' dry. The new licence area is only about 80 miles away so a lot of material can be trucked back and forth with very little expense.
The company (in my opinion) is still way undervalued based on the price to earnings ratio, the current price of gold, plus the fact we are about to become debt free which is a significant 'green flag' for a lot of investors (myself included).
Sitting pretty, other posters on here know far more about the past (lee for example) so I'll leave them to throw any past info your way. My only concern is the future, and it's looking bright and shiny.
All the best