Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"AEX dilution when selling out to AGRA for a song; the two companies are in exactly the same position - "
Another AEX ?
Another thing RJ, as has been mentioned many a time before, the NT2 drill proved that the gas pressures at Ntorya are such that very specialised, high grade rig and casings will be required for the CH1 drill (allowing venting of gas to reduce and control the pressure) and would you be confident of using the He1 rig after the recent performance issues....?! I wouldn't.
I take your point, but I do think it is a possibility that may suit both companies.
April wouldn't worry me, if the announcement of a rig contract came at this time. What is three months between friends after the years we have waited? At least it would be a positive that we have long been awaiting here.
Well RJ, honestly, I rather hope not. Not least because, even assuming that the rig is repaired in short order, He1 needs it to drill one, or ideally two, drills in coming months and only then after they have secured the necessary funding. In my view that means that realistically, it will not be available until at least April..... unless of course they don't get funding - in which case He1 is totally buggered and the rig will be available for nothing in February!
FWIW RJ, I think He1 are really struggling to get the quantum of funding they need and even if they do it will come at the cost of HUGE dilution akin to the AEX dilution when selling out to AGRA for a song; the two companies are in exactly the same position - neither having a pot to p iss in and requiring a "white knight" to ride in and save them - but at a "fire sale" price of course....
Glad you picked that up Crusty it was only last week I suggested that Ara maybe one of those approaching to secure the rig for the NT1 make over. When announcing the work over, they did suggest a mobile unit would be sufficient.
Time will tell if this link comes to fruition. If so I would expect an announcement from both parties in the very near future, certainly by first week of January. Would you agree?
Oh and BG, yes, I am expecting to see the output from that 3D analysis - revised CPR - in January. Though it was meant to be released to coincide with the CH1 drill and that still looks a long way off.... I am not expecting any movement on that until we get a GSA and pipeline initiation.
I am not sure that I agree with you Northern. Too many times during these extended periods of extended "radio silence" the rose tinted spectacle brigade have tried to persuade us that the BoD and ARA will have be doing a, b & c behind the scenes and that all will very soon be revealed; When, in reality, those periods of "radio silence" have. invariably, been proven to reveal a period of minimal, if any, activity whatsoever....
I was at the He1 AGM yesterday and one interesting fact was revealed and that was that the He1 BoD had been approached by a number of "in country" (i.e. Tanzania) O&G entities to enquire about the availability of He1's own Drilling Rig; so maybe there is a glimmer of life in AEX (ARA) yet ;0)
Impossible
We can only but hope Northern, this from the half year report
" The entire 3D seismic data processed interpretation will be completed in Q4 2023, permitting a total revision of the gas reserve and resource potential for the field. Moreover, RPS Energy Consultants Ltd has been contracted to produce an updated CPR before the end of this year."
Further New before the year end to reflect the progress that Aminex has said Ara are making across a number fronts.
Seems a long time since we had an update on the list of items stated in a previous RNS.
Always difficult to know when you don't hear something whether no progress has been made in the background of substantial progress. The truth probably lies somewhere between the two but it would be reassuring to get a positive update.
Atb,
Northern
I understand that the first pipes for the Ugandan/ Tanzania oil pipeline have arrived,
Better get a move on going to need gas to heat it.
Facts you don't like RoJo.....
What are you wittering on about Tanz ?!?
Not if you and your Messiah have your way RJ. All to satisfy that huge grudge you carry, it seems for evermore......
Must be frustrating for you with your hopes of seeing our investment crash, yes ?
Joel - you just don't get it.
We have about a gazillion cu ft of gas in the ground.
All we need is a development licence, a GSA, a drill rig and drill pad, and a pipeline and we'll be up and away.
Wow, checking back in here after all this time....with obviously no change.
Still the odd old face hanging around that never learnt their lesson and are still being mugged off by the Tanzanian government.
Congratulations winalot !
I don't know what we'd do without prosciutto's words of wisdom.
Can't believe I made it into Prosciuttos weekly spiel. I don't know what to say. Lol
Highlights of the week
" And has anyone looked at the chart since 1995? how many share are in issue today and how many next year? gulp " 1. commercia
Probably 1.5 billion more
" 8tcf based on 2d siesmics doesn't necessarily mean 3d will confirm that or more, it swings both ways. Clearer 3d siesmics might confirm what they thought was there isn't actually as much as they thought." 1. winalot
If you are expecting a World Class reservoir, you had best prepare yourself to be disappointed. This could be Tembo2. The interpretation of the Ruvuma 3D seismic would require positive confirmation. This is not a given. This is a totally different reservoir than Mnazi Bay. The 3D seismic must prove that this area is NOT comprised of isolated small stratigraphic traps / pockets of gas... ie, reservoir producibility issues which would lead to a very high well count and low recovery per well.
ie, how long did KN-1 last? Answer: Not very long.
= = = = = = = = = =
Lingering issues
1) The dispute with the Tanzania Revenue Authority is ongoing. What's the plan to get free from this head lock?
2) As a non-operator with no say, sway or control over anything, wouldn't the company be better off seeking a strategic alternative?
3) There has been no final closure for a GSA, 25-year license or FFD. ARA knows very well that the only leverage they have is to stall. How long of a stall can Aminex afford to sustain?
4) The peers are struggling even with production that is well above anything you could ever expect from Aminex.
5) The negative Working Capital requires attention. How big of a Capital raise are they working on?
If they proceed with a capital raise, there is no guarantee that there are enough buyers for 1.5 billion shares at 0.65 p. Check out Helium1 to witness firsthand the consequence of dilution on the share price. That is known as an ' off-the-cliff ' catastrophic share price collapse. With any dilution, you can expect a similar outcome here.
There is always hope but ...
" He that lives upon hope will die fasting" 1. Benjamin Franklin
Aminex should follow the same path as Wentworth did. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
They have got 20 years to monetise it, use it or lose it Tanzania, get a shift on!
I'd say we're pretty safe for that. Natural gas usage in Tanzania would be an improvement to lower their emissions, its cleaner than what they use now for domestic and commercial purposes (wood, coal, diesel, etc)
All the COP gatherings are just horse poo. Promises made on the day then forgotten about tomorrow. It's an excuse for big wigs to meet in mass and do business.
The point being, Tanzanian gas will be needed and used by its citizens and neighbouring countries for decades to come.
My opinion of course!
I hope ARA/Aminex start cracking on before the demand for fossil fuels starts to diminish. (COP 28). I know it'll be many years, but Tanzania doesn't want multi trillions of cubic feet of gas in the ground that nobody wants.GLA.
Apology for what mppotus ?
For being consistently correct ?
Sorry Northern I see where you get it from, but I still didn't see it that way. I think that was written for our benefit to prevent more panic tbh.
It possibly was used as a lever, but from what I know there is no way either would have walked away. The find is too big.
Time for an apology Rojo.