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News finally filtering out from Times and other outlets but could be the easiest double bagger or more in less than a month and downsides are limited as we have invested close to £60m to get us to this key position over 12 years and we are worth only 50% of that. I think what is also important is that this could be strategic investment in country by China as most Chinese companies have links to government policy so at same time Nic government will sort any small details. If price is right i suspect, as condor said, they are confident of a deal which means price is well in correct band of $100m+. at these levels or more we are a triple bagger.
What booom???
1p old money..pog 1900 year 2023.
Good morning
Interesting idea. Could just sell La India and keep Mestiza and Americas\Cacao and with cash proceeds build a mine. One other idea is why doesn’t someone try and crash the party and just offer 60p cash for Condor shares and derail the asset sale. Would still be cheaper than buying asset and get a plump vehicle with massive tax losses to use. Certainly feels to me that 30p is a holding price for now as asset offers could be a lot higher.
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom! Here we go
Whilst i don't want to get ahead of myself, and i'd be accepting of an asset sale for $150m . If we believe that we have 14m oz plus, but offers only attribute any serious value to the 2.4m oz, why don't we sell the 2.4m oz , keep $20m of the sale price in the company, prove up some more gold and then sell some more proven reserves. I know that it's more complicated than that , but why give something of potentially great value away for nothing ?
Went ahead and purchased level 2 for the month! Not used it before so not overly familiar with it, but it doesn't make much sense to me! Every order on the order book is size 5000 which doesn't seem right?! Plus, trades are occurring that the order book does not seem to be reflecting. Am I being dumb or is the LSE level 2 data not correct?!
Still plenty of sub-20p sell orders it seems, crazy given the news yesterday and subsequent volume!
Anyone with level 2 willing to share some info re the order book?
Yep been topping up this am, I think goes to the Chinese or Canadians and expecting we will see 40p on this..
5-0, China is really the only deal that makes sense in the circumstances imv. Been saying that for quite some time. I gave zijin purchase of continental in colombia in early 2020 as a good reference.
Continentl had 11 m oz and 3.4 m reserves and. Virtually complete 250 oz mine sold at top of the market for $1 b. Us. We have around 650 k reserves and 2.4 m oz and a mine to finance.
Quite some time to run yet I suspect and wouldnt expect any possible payout until beyond q2 at best imv but thats nothing when you been waiting 12 years .
Expect a much better response when a binding offer announced.
Good luck peeps
Yep, Book5 certainly knows his onions. 20p+ at close today I reckon.
Not much stock around this morning, market makers trying to quell demand, a number of online brokers are 'at best' only.
I think it is fair to say that sentiment has turned the corner, a large Chinese group on-site for 8 days and meeting the Government is very very positive - the poster book5 suggested all along the project would be sold to the Chinese.
12 trades so far for a volume of 237000. All buys above 18p with a high of 18.50p.
Can we break 20p today?
Simms, rio is too big for us. Unless they buy calibre as well blwhich is unlikely and more complicated. They pulled out of nic already.
Condor looks to be almost certain to get a decent offer and in webinar yesterday MC says could be within a period of a month or even end of this month depending how you understand what he says. I am largely expecting share price to recover to 20-30p once the seller at 17p departs and await news as it could be worth 40-60p to shareholders or more once binding offers are released and competition increases. Once an asset has multiple offers often you also have others take a look as boards responsible for acquisitions must review Condor now or they are not doing their job and miss an opportunity. Will Rio Tinto be in the mix as they were always a likely contender back in the day. That would put biggest Chinese miner head to head.
On a good day for gold stocks and with gold having rise from 1810 to 1910 in the last week Condor gets a mention:
“ Among London's smaller stocks, Condor Gold, which mines the metal in Nicaragua, climbed 2¼p, or 14.3 per cent, to 18p amid claims of high interest in a gold project it is selling.”
"I'm sitting tight. I honestly don't see the point in selling at the moment and I'm scratching my head as to why people seem content with a penny or two when outcome will be significantly more."
absolutely with you....
CCC I was thinking along the same lines. After the US + EU seized Russia's assets in the western financial system, I think it has kicked de-dollarization into high gear. That means if you're China sitting on just under $1 trillion of US treasuries then you'd want to diversify them into hard assets in friendly jurisdictions as quickly as possible, especially given the growing anti-China rhetoric we're hearing more and more of. There's only so many large scale assets of value for sale in the world that China can purchase using it's treasuries so it makes perfect sense for them to buy Condor's assets. And given that acceleration they might even be willing to pay more than they otherwise would have. This all could work out perfectly! Then again...
One thing I noticed from the interview was Childs demeanor being so much more upbeat and positive than his last interview at the time of the sale announcement back in November.
It seems to me that he is very confident, clearly he will personally benefit financially from a good sale price because of his personal shareholding in Condor. My bet is on a sale to the Chinese, it also looks very likely that the $100m to $200m range Child talked about historically could also be attained.
One wonders why the share price remains so low therefore, my bet is the market will start to close the gap and rerate the stock, sentiment has changed and that is key.
A final thought from me today.
A lot has been made regarding the risks of doing business in Nicaragua and CNR share price has always been priced in as a reflection of risk.
Now Ortega has few friends globally, but one major supporter has been the Chinese and to have the biggest Chinese gold producers tells you a lot, i sniff that this could well be a win,win situation politically as well as commercially and the meeting with Nic's Government is very telling.
The Chinese are keen to expand globally, buying CNR is small fry but politically in the Americas is significant and i expect a premium price for the show.
Interesting that the prospective Chinese buyer has not been able to leave China for 3 years due to Covid restrictions.
Glad to hear an investment bank is handling the potential sale. The timing is pretty much spot on given what happened in gold and miner stocks since SVB. MC does look happy. But as always with this company: We will see.
I haven't posted because I've had nothing to say, but today's update puts a new perspective on the situation.
MC qualified his comments by suggesting that the offers were not binding. True, but the fact is that we are now in a competitive tender situation. It looks like we have moved into a Best And Final Offer stage, and today's news basically tells everyone that they need to sharpen their pencils for their BAFO submission. The interest shown might also attract a late bidder. Once news gets out anything can happen. Firms not previously interested might suddenly get interested. Everyone has a price but nobody likes losing without giving it their best shot.
Enough of the platitudes. I think what this means is that my assumptions of $150m could well be far too pessimistic. A competition for the prize might even double that.
As for current market value, as we have seen today with many people wanting to take an early profit suggests to me that the market will not allow the SP to get anywhere near what the final asset sale value will be, at least not until the final deal is announced. We'll wake up one morning and find that the MMs have adjusted the price to the point where they feel they can meet market needs - I doubt it will fully reflect asset sale value. At which point those who want a capital gain may well bale out, and the delta between the asset vale and SP will increase. I could see hours, perhaps a day or two, of rather chaotic trading and the SP bouncing about a bit. It will settle but I suspect it will settle lower than the opening price on the day of the sale announcement. Having said that I wouldn't bet anything on any particular outcome. Sale day could well be mad in any direction.
Trying to rationalise a SP in this situation is impossible. The fact that the market still thinks CNR is worth less than 20p suggests that there is a lot of doubt still. Meanwhile, it's still not even reached the 22p, the lowest option price for those still valid. It's not looking like further dilution is going to be the issue that some thought it might be.
I'm sitting tight. I honestly don't see the point in selling at the moment and I'm scratching my head as to why people seem content with a penny or two when outcome will be significantly more.
Meanwhile gold is at $1912 when I last looked.
Just watched Mark’s proactive interview. I have never seen him smile so much. He is visibly very excited about what has been happening. A very large Chinese gold company has been on site for 8 days which is serious due diligence. Marks body language suggests he is confident of a a sale at least within the US$100-200 million he indicated back in November. He has clearly been authorised by Hannan to mention the Chinese which should now flush out some more offers for a bidding war.
It is looking very promising and a poster who spoke to Mark reported he said that people shouldn’t take any notice of the current sp as a guide to the actual sale price.
Bought another 40k today, as I think nearly every poster has stated it’s a great price to increase your holding or buy in for that first time!
Let’s keep going CNR