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Here, here!
Noel have a day off and disappear back down your hole you boring, boring troglodyte. You contribute NOTHING to this community, your inputs are wholly redundant, don't impress, and frankly make me embarassed for you.
Merry Christmas, now puck off.
Now under 16p. I did tell you that the chart was not looking good.
I will take them bags when you walk yr dog incase he’s got something to say
slim, don't forget to take an enormous cucumber with you to the agm
We be going to agm then out for lunch and a few beers
And Biden don't even THINK about any more sanctions!!
The EGM to approve the proposed subdivision of shares is on Wednesday at 11 a.m. If the motion passes then the open offer goes ahead with new shares added on the 23rd.
Hopefully we'll also get news as to how much was raised in the open offer, some good news would be welcome before Christmas.
We are entering the end game folks, let's hope the western world can hold things together long enough to get the asset/company sold for a decent price and we can all close the book on our time here. Good luck to us!
Calibre have 1.1Mtpa spare capacity at la libertad. I personally think all hell would break out if calibre bought us and used us as a 100%spoke/not build a processing plant on site (I think it would massively upset the local community and added foreign investment into the country).
Our sag mill can process 1Mtpa at 2,650tpd. Going straight to 100,000oz/year will probably max out this capacity (not crunched the numbers but pretty sure we'd be close).
So if calibre bought us and used us as a 100% spoke, they would max out their spare capacity. Given all of calibres growth opportunities and bringing their Eastern borosi project, this encourages me that calibre would be interested and it would be in their interest to build a processing plant to benefit their growth.
Yes Slim - that's correct the date and time from the 'expected timetable' announced in the open offer RNS. I would have thought that they should put out an official RNS announcing that meeting - perhaps on Monday.
Anyone remember the dates for the agm I think it’s the 21 at 11am but
Well I sold 1/6 and then subscribed for the same 1/6 back and then asked for excess of another 3/6 to avoid dilution and average down a bit.
Like others my rationale is that the asset valuations that have been done seem to stack up, and even if it goes at a significant discount I should come out ahead. This, coupled with the gamble that MC/JM aren't out to diddle us in some arcane way.
By Monday I may look like a chump!
GLA :-)
I think everyone has had the same thoughts over the last week or so. It's tough committing more funds when the SP is so low. You tend to think that the market knows something that you don't, notwithstanding the fact that short term prices on almost any share can go anywhere. I can understand anyone holding fire. I've actually taken them up and have liquidated some other shares for cash in case it drops below 15p. In essence I struggle to validate current market cap on any other basis but short term sentiment plus a bit of lower cost positioning. If you take the land and mill off the £25m or so marcap you end up with a BFS P&P M&I off less than $25 vs. an industry average of $160. I just can't get my head around the delta between what the industry thinks BFS resources are worth and what the current marcap is. I went for the offer because I think the underlying assets are being fundamentally mispriced by Mr. Market. A sharp reversal is due.
My sentiments as well Quark3, for once I may not actually regret getting it wrong if you get what I mean. GLA all and here’s hoping for a nice Christmas present or a happy new year!
I am very grateful for the excellent discussion on the board regarding the offer, especially the valuations suggested by DDD.
However, at risk of losing out I have decided not to take up my option to buy. It would have brought my average down by 5p, but I cannot bring myself to put more money into CNR. Still hoping for my money back, maybe, but my trust in the directors has taken a hit this year. I hope I DO miss out and regret not buying, that would be the best outcome!
Looks like it would of been cheaper to wait till onion and melons scheme was done
I'll go for the 'business needed the money and the price were the warrants argument'. I think that would be a fair rebuttal.
In a nutshell, exercising warrants\options is prohibited during a closed period (I'm assuming Feb\Mar 2023 on this one) and carries 'risks' beforehand, given the situation with the asset sale. Under the Market Abuse Regulations exercising such would risk a presumption of insider trading.
As such I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that any activity on the share front now looks unlikely. I'm not even clear how JM could exercise the warrants under the loan deal given his involvement in the asset sale process and MAR aspects. I have to assume that the lawyers have been through this and legitimised it.
Attached slide 17 answers the question I raised on options\warrants:
https://shareplanlawyers.org/wp-content/uploads/shareplan/SPL-training_MAR_28-May-2020.pdf
I'm also looking at the close period. The annual results were published on March 29th last year so this year's will probably start at the beginning of February. That leaves January and the next couple of weeks for officer\insider trading.
The aim of warrants is to bring cash into the business simply from investors so there are cases where options are triggered above share price where cash is needed asap and investors are close to the business. However options are normally only triggered if price is above and just before they expire. Any warrants of options about to expire will do just that. However if we get a sniff in the New Year we should go back to 30-40p or more depending on the number of parties.
Depends how many I could buy on the open market. Would be hard to buy more than a mil or two I would think.
And as you say, even if insiders cannot buy on the market, it may be possible to exercise warrants or options. I'm also unsure on the rules here.
I concur that 40p seems steep at the present time, but that 22p may be appealing. As usual though there are too many unknowns to be very sure of anything!
Why would you exercise options/warrants above 22p when you could buy on the open market, at least until the price reacted.
I'll throw this out to a discussion. I'll be interested in views.
Would you, as an officer or insider holding options of warrants above 22p when the SP is below that figure, buy in anticipation of getting a good return through a later dividend?
I'm also not clear on the rules relating to exercising options/warrants if you are an insider/officer involved in, or have knowledge of, the negotiations.
For the record I'm not too sure anyone holding warrants\options above 40p would go for it. There are a couple of million at 22p which might well be tempting.
Not much sign of a Santa Rally emerging this year. If anything the recent increase in interest rates to 3.5% is killing the general market as it anticipates interest rates putting us into deep recession in 2023.
As for Condor I'm in two minds about what might happen to the SP. On the one hand the thinly traded Christmas period could knock the SP below 15p, albeit I'm not clear who would want to sell and why anyone would want to sell. Selling above 16p to pick up 15p in the offer makes sense so there is some logic to the price dropping from 20p - 21p to 16p. I'm therefore coming to the view that the SP could well see a bit of an uptick. There will perhaps be a bit of profit taking on the back of a 15p base, although I think most investors will want something more significant than a penny or two.
Another thought has also crossed my mind. If the price stays below 22p for weeks, or months, there will be a substantial bonus in options not being exercised and warrants not being taken up. This would reduce fully diluted from 244m by around 30m to 214m. The benefit of lower dilution is greater than the cash raised by these freebies. These are still estimates as we can't really get to better numbers until we know how many open offer shares will be issued; info that should be available before Christmas. I reckon this could be worth 7p - 11p value per share on my back of the envelop calcs. Of course an announcement of a robust sale price would encourage a lot of buying, and selling, on the day of the announcement.
As ever, another wrinkle in this complicated scenario.