Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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Some decent buying has been going on recently and, although it hasn't altered the sp range, I fully expect to see a larger sell coming in from RF today to balance the books for the mm's. I am pretty sure that the buys are slowly but surely eroding RF's position here.
Add that to the fact that 737 deal is on its trajectory and, if successful, could well provide funding for 1801 ph2. By that time I would also expect the sp to have recovered sufficiently, therefore allowing for a substantial raise to take place if required.
Sareum does not have a clearly defined cashflow runway just yet but some building blocks have gone in.
I know funding is always a source of genuine concern to investors but I think our options have improved.
If I remember right. The deal was done just before the p2b data was readout. If 1801/2 get that far, and TAK279 is still progressing, then we need to have equal to or better data to warrant a similar valuation. 1801 phase 2 is likely to start mid 2025 with the readout being in 26 or even 27. A 4 billion valuation, would be worth waiting for but it is a long time for the real long termers here. IMO, there is every chance of a buyout before then but at a lower valuation. I think it is unlikely that we will get any offers until 1b data is ready so maybe early 2025. Again, if 1801 1b data is in line or better than TAK279 at the same point, then, with tyk2 compounds, we are looking at valuation in the high 100's of millions before we get to P2 data readout. The waiting is frustrating but if progressing thfn the price goes up the longer we wait.
There are pro's and con's to each approach whether it's pure TYK2 or TYK2/JAK1 or whatever and as others have pointed out, there's room for each in the market.
As JR & TM have said, they might not be the best biologists but they are very good chemists and that's what you want when designing a new compound. Just the right amount of JAK1 is essential here to maximise selectivity over pure TYK2. It's a bit like those expert sushi chefs preparing blowfish - the aim is to leave just enough of the deadly toxin in the dish so you get a slight tingle on the lips but not so much that it kills you.
When people complain that the BoD are taking too long to get through tox trials etc., well there is a reason why they take their time - we'll probably only get one chance with this so it has to prove it meets all of the design specifications along the way.
Good post Num4 and good thread. Really interesting and informative. Good safety results and the game should be on.
The fact that it has been disclosed that Takeda beat almost every other bio to this deal gives you an insight to how hot these inhibitors are turning out to be. As the saying goes, strike while the iron is hot - Sareum are finding themselves in the hot zone with a strike approaching, confirming their strategy of pre-clinical, early clinical deals.
I believe there is enough science out there to show that our molecule with the addition of Jak1 will prove greater efficacy in some disease models. There is not a one pill fits all here for the multitude of autoimmune and cancer disease's. BMS and or Nimbus, now Takeda, molecules will be better in some indications, but certainly not all, leaving a market share for a tyk2/Jak1. BMS and Takeda are now clearly head to head competition with their allosteric and Takeda think they are superior.
We on the other hand are letting the big boys fight it out with that and have a molecule which differentiates from them both.
In a few months we will have a molecule with proven P1a safety data to enter this space, I have no doubt that discussions are taking place with the very companies that entered the bidding for Nimbus molecule, whilst BMS and Takeda have huge departments who look at competition to their assets and projected business models, if a small company like Sareum can disrupt that projected cashflow then they must do something about it or answer to the board why they didn't.
It has been a very long journey here and we've lost some along the way, plenty lessons learnt from Sareum's perspective but at least they are wiser and look to have the right NED support to get this over the line with a positive outcome for them and the shareholders.
Chk1 deal, as mentioned - an extension of previous agreement really, nothing much to shout about yet. CPF haven't done it justice but that's what happens in this industry. Just look at the history of Momelotinib with the Sierra deal. I mean, this is just not imaginable really. Pay $3m cash upfront in 2018, sell it 4 years later for $1.9billion.
Hence the share options for Sareum are them getting a bit wiser and understanding that these things change from dead duck to golden goose in a "pharma short" amount of time.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/deals-snippets/glaxo-sierras-momelotinib-finds-its-fifth-owner
I hope they continue with the discussions and negotiate share options as part of any SDC-1801 deal.
Interest, as always, will return. Good luck for 2024 to all.
Andy Plump, M.D., Ph.D., Takeda’s head of R&D and a member of the company's board, detailed how competitive the dealmaking process was in an interview on the sidelines of this year’s J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. In fact, “almost every biopharmaceutical company” was in the mix for the asset at some point.
Which means a lot missed out and are they still on the hunt
GLA
Thanks. Yep exactly the science will talk ....
I must add that SOG and Citizen etc have far more knowledge than me on the selectivity issue. I look forward to a more learned contribution but that was what I took from it.
Hi Celtic. Ultimately, every expert in the field will have a slightly different opinion on this but he is backing their tyk2 as it's safer than having Jak1 and made incredibly well. He does concede though that having jak 1 is more effective. So if we can nail the safety aspects, IE what's going on right now, then it bodes very well indeed.
At times like these I remember the quote "We may not be great at biology, but we are excellent chemists."
When push comes to shove, the squeaky chair, the awful PR, lack of news are really immaterial. If John and Tim have nailed the science, we're onto a winner. Need to pass the safety first though.
Hi Ben. So is that good for us based on our molecule selectivity? Thanks
Interesting section:
Specifically, the pharmacology of TAK-279 makes it more selective on the TYK2 pathway, allowing more of the drug to be given without risk of inhibiting the JAK1 pathway, a secondary effect that can add efficacy but spurs safety concerns.
Plump called TAK-279 one of the best-made molecules he’s seen in his career.
Lazarus, I agree with your post that also refers to the football analogy.
A fair point Potnak, though I did stress that the connection I was making might not be 100% sound however Boundless does tick some boxes (private company, prior knowledge of 737 etc.) so just because they have one CHK1 doesn't mean they wouldn't pick up another for a different indication especially if they know its been successful in P2 trials. Perhaps as you've suggest, the licensee wants a fast turnaround in order to make a quick return on their investment.
Unfortunately this is the game we have to play until someone officially announces who the licensee is.
Great research from HBD but IMO, barking up the wrong tree. Can't see why they would license 737 when the have thier own chk1. Also why woukd CPF let them license it? Surely, there would be some development clauses/milestones in the contract to protect the compound being shelved like Sierra did. For me, I think this deal will be much like the one we had for Aurora. Short term to see what they can do to move it along. If not, it will be handed back.
Indeed Potnak, BBI-355 & the Brain penetrant version BBI-098 which they regard as 2nd generation.
These posts and musings will no doubt lead to the oft repeated "did the patents get handed back to the CPF/Sareum" questions, or "does this mean they patented SRA737 to prevent others using it..." and "Parker said this, but meant that about the asset".
I guess its all supposition until a trial or update breaks cover.
Fun and games as ever.
ATB
Am I missing something here? They patented chk1 because they have their own chk1. Not because they are using sra737.
Thanks to those posting on here about Boundless Bio and 737. Those that have been here for many moons will know that in combination with Dexamethasone SRA 737 works. We know In combination with AstraZeneca's WEE1 inhibitor Adavosertib SRA737 works. We know that in combination with Merck’s Keytruda SRA 737 works and
we know that in combination with Eli Lillys Gemcitabine SRA737 works. It is a no-brainer that Boundless Bio (who have connections to Sierra Onc) would want to licence SRA 737 (CCT-245737). It makes perfect sense. What didn't make any sense at the time was Sierra putting it on the back burner when the data was so positive. The only conclusion was they didn't have the funds to develop it? Boundless Bio on the hand appear to be adept at cash raises. This bodes well for 737.
Many thks, HBD. I really was puzzled and obviously have no clue how Pharma and research does work in time and detail. I think its a good thing then when SR737 was in play all the time.
I recall a time when SAR had to drop an RNS just to confirm what this Board had already found out themselves. Not sure if it was about MERCK and their results at the time. RNS imminent?
GLA
For the time you have spent searching up on possible 737 (not Boeing ) outcomes - Much appreciated
Hi Fanti - it depends what you mean by access. Without reading the patents, it's probably a case of them wanting to patent methods of treatment that include CHK1 inhibitors and therefore they include mention of SRA737 in much the same way as Sierra did, see below (specifically the Applicant name or Assignee name for each patent)
https://patents.justia.com/search?q=sra737
As for accessing 737, you can buy it off the shelf for research purposes from a variety of suppliers - https://www.selleckchem.com/products/cct245737.html
So anyone could be using it in their lab on mice and they don't have to announce it but you can find enough research papers online to show a variety of labs have published their work with 737 in combo with other treatments - I've posted about Chinese labs using 737 with ultrasound to target breast cancer and so on.
As I said in my initial post, just because there appears to be a strong link doesn't mean it's 100% accurate - just because I heard the sound of hooves doesn't mean we'll see some horses, it could be zebras instead!
Lol - yes my analogy highlighted success not failure Potnak.
@ hotblack - great digging and information thank you so much for sharing. Brighty and Citizen also. Reinforces my confidence anyway.
I have to disagree with your football analogy, Laz. Most of my friends are either Sheff wed or Sheff utd fans. They are constantly negative about their team. They still but a season ticket and spend 1000's travelling round the country to watch them play every year. Football is a good analogy for AIM but not in the way you stated. 😂
Thanks for the response Sflf.
Unless you are a HNWI I doubt whether you would have that many more than myself if at all. But never mind.
I get any concerns investors such as yourself may have but I feel you are a self-generating worrier. As a footballing analogy, did anyone expect Leicester City to win the Premiership a few years ago? No - they didn’t have any major stars, limited budget and the competition was far superior to them. Yet they prevailed. Any supporter would have been forgiven for writing negatively about their chances.
My point is that nobody can ever predict. Just as the Leicester fans paying to see their team early season never dreamt of such success, those of us still accumulating at these low prices may be buying the same golden tickets.
One thing is for sure though. You do not pay to go and boo your team constantly.
Great findings indeed. In saying ", 8 of which were published last year when 737 was on the market", does this imply that this company had access to SRA737 w/o licencing it the previous years?