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I will say its easy to spot the short term flippers vs. The long termers.
Disagree with yours and/or frizzers logic, 45p wouldn't be appropriate in the slightest, indeed for many LTHs that would be a significant loss.
Https://insightcrime.org/news/increasingly-brazen-gaitanistas-attack-colombias-biggest-gold-mine/ I think Zijin is of the Chinese bidders with Ortega getting into bed with the Chinese and pleading with them to invest in his country. Zijin paid an even $1BilU$ for this troubled mine and quickly increased production to become one of Colombia's largest gold mines now have run into this constantly. Far less chance of this happening in Nicaragua with a pit mine and the way the mines there go out of their way to substantially increase the quality of living for the locals. Calibre furnishes clean water systems, housing, schools, medical and a fair wages with benefits for the local communities around their mines. All the new owner has to do is follow Calibre's business model.
Unfortunately it means bugger all here!
37.8p approx Canadian close
Frizzers is about right with his estimate of 45p for a buyout based on the usual metrics especially since CNR management has effectively said they are not mine builders. I fully agree with his assessment that Calibre is the obvious choice, given the proximity of their (under-utilised) La Libertad mill and the possibility of building another hub, sometime in the future, at La India (already approved and mill in storage). This would further increase their capability for expanding their other mines at Limon and future-proof production capacity (reducing the risk of plant shutdowns). Calibre has put together a funding war chest beyond that required to take Valantine into production, which is unusual. Calibre management are mine builders supported by B2Gold (originally invested in La India) and looking to get to 500 koz per annum which would re-rate them as a mid-tier producer... adding Condor's assets would achieve this by 2025/6.
Expect 15p cash + shares in Calibre (currently on a tare price-wise) to approximate 45p overall.
Maybe the updated presentation is updated for the benefit of the shareholders of the soon to be new owner :)
Next update will be news of sale, hopefully.
Agree that there needs to be a proper update at some point. Frisby's article will only drum up interest for so long.
I note there are no upcoming Events on the Condor website so I'm assuming Mark won't need new presentation material in the meantime. It's a puzzle I tell ya.
Maybe I'm being pedantic but just a few observations:
The first slide clearly says May 2023 but it clearly this year with the updated numbers and other references to 2024. Come on, does anyone proof read these presentations?
Secondly, although it is nice to see some updated numbers with the higher gold price, but who is this presentation for? If we are in advanced discussions, shouldn't we be passed this at this stage?
More unanswered questions if you ask me which is really annoying considering where we are at pretty much 18 months down the line. Does it mean we are trying to drum up more interest? Are the 2 companies we are in talks with playing hardball?
Don't get me wrong, it's nice to see our sp rally and I'm not selling any, but has that mostly got to do with all the recent pumping by frisby and swen? Will it slowly drop again as new investors get bored? We need a proper update.
Do you guys n gals know what the late trades may bode for tomorrow? TIA.
I figure JM has a gold price in mind, and a valuation for Condor based on that. Buyers may well say, as they must have done 18 months ago, we're not paying that, and JM will have gone, fine then, just wait and see what happens. And so we have ! lol
He may not be the messiah, and he may not be right about everything (let it go Seingred), but he's called gold pretty well so far and he didn't get rich by being a fool, so I will also wait and see what happens!
I suspect they would have agreed a price of gold on which to do the valuation. Not 3k that's for sure. Maybe 2k, perhaps slightly less.
Then like anything it comes down to drumming up a bidding war between 2 maybe 3 buyers to get a higher valuation. Condor unfortunately say, well if you don't pay what we want, we will start mining ourselves, as it would clearly be a bluff.
You werenβt too far out with your end of day prediction after all Slim! You havenβt got the lottery numbers by any chance have you?
40 by Friday but what Friday very very soon πππ
Lol, yeah they have been a bit premature but hopefully 40p this week!
I've got no doubt this is the root of the negotiations
I would like to know whether a value of 2.3 billion is realistic. And how much of this value would a buyer usually pay? 10 percent, 20 percent...? Can you or someone else bring me up to date with the usual valuations, please. I suspect that gold will be above 2,500 dollars in June. Will that change the valuation in the short term if we go to 3,000 dollars or has that already been agreed?
Mm Surrey , obviously not the same presentation as when he predicted 150 k oz production lol. Cnr share price was 50 p 5 years ago and Β£2 10 years ago. Bank of condor pays pretty poor negative interest!
Still 36 p is ok sell today if you bought in the teens or even mid twenties.;)
Your booms are as inaccurate as Simms predictions ;-)
Are you off for a little trip over to Sark?
Good spot Vermillion, ppt posted to website on Friday.
Loving the speculation whilst enjoying the SPβ¦. For what is worthβ¦. If they could have done a cheap deal and didnβt, Iβm beginning to think Jim has his eyes on a decent price!
Would you believe that this is JM's strategy and logic?
A presentation several years ago he stated that the gold in the ground with ownership is actually not to dissimilar to having it sat in a safe. Combined with the his forecast on the pog (which is being realised!), he's just not wrong.
$2.3 billion
'PEA - La India open pit + 2 feeder pits + Underground - fully permitted
150,000 oz gold p.a. over the initial 9 years of production
At US$2,400 oz gold over life of mine, EBITDA increases to US$2,317M vs US$1,205M +92%'
Is any of this new?
'AT US$2,400 oz gold over life of mine, EBITDA increases to US$769M vs US$355M + 117%'
https://www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/presentations/Condor%20Gold%20Corporate%20Presentation%20May%202024%20v2.pdf
I think Slimβs just being a realist to temper his expectations!